Note: I originally drafted this post in October 2018 but didn’t publish it — I didn’t really consider it finished. I’m publishing it five years later because I want to reference The Singularity. Even if it’s not a fully formed discussion, there’s a kernel that’s worth noting and potentially expanding upon.
I’ve been a lifelong technophile and believer that technology has generally made the world a better place for humans (at least) to live. When posed the question when in the course of human history I would prefer to live, I tend to say “now” generally because the range of creature comforts — including air conditioning, cleanliness, transportation, medicine, entertainment, cuisines — has never been so extensive or widely available. And in general I’ve long felt that the future will bring even better, cooler things.
I’ve also long been sympathetic to theories of the acceleration of technology, a la Ray Kurzwiel and the prospect of a Singularity. Not to the point of making it a borderline religion, as some do, but in the general appreciation that technological change is accelerating and compounding, and we can’t accurately forecast beyond an event horizon of 50-100 years.
Lately, though, I’ve come to worry that as a society we may be getting too far in front of our skis, so to speak. We are uncorking forces in social networking, artificial intelligence, bioengineering and other areas faster than we understand or have any ability to control or govern.
For millennia, the primary global existential threats were asteroids, super volcanoes and pandemics. In the 20th century we added nuclear annihilation. Now it seems we need to add a host of threats including global warming, an AI takeover (machine revolt a la Terminator), designer bio-bugs gone rogue, and a range of idiot world leaders more prone to unleash such threats out of malice or ignorance.
I’m lately worried that we’ve entrusted too much power in the hands of corporate technology giants, now conveniently abbreviated as FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google) on Wall Street. I’m not alone, as the backlash to Facebook in the wake of election tampering and Cambridge Analytica scandals shows. It’s an interesting side note to put these companies on a scale of trustworthiness: I’d bet Facebook and Amazon have very low trust, Apple and Google higher levels…but their time in the barrel will come. As I say this, however, I’m reminded of fears that earlier generations of technology titans (IBM, Univac, DEC, etc.) were supposed to own the world.
It maybe falls at a less-than-existential threat level, but it strikes me that the current problem is a matter of who to trust. Google and Apple already know far more about me than I’m comfortable acknowledging. I think there should be some consumer digital bill of rights that covers ownership of online data for an individual. Such concerns were part of my original spark for starting this journal as a standalone private website rather than giving everything over to Facebook, Google or some more specialized platform.
Perhaps I should be soothed by predictions by the likes of Kurzweil that things will indeed be rosy in the future. To some extent, I am, and I want to believe that better days are coming. It’s navigating from here to there that is worrisome.