Part nine of my ongoing journal entries about life in the time of the 2020 Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic. Previous posts: Part One (Jan-Mar, 2020). Part Two (April 2020). Part Three (May 2020). Part Four (June 2020). Part Five (July 2020). Part Six (August 2020). Part Seven (September 2020). Part Eight (October 2020).
November 3
We are finally here: Election Day. I figure it’s a worthwhile enough event that I will update this journal several times today.
First, a note that yesterday was like one of the worst Christmas Eves ever. Anxiety and anticipation were uncomfortably high. It seemed the whole country was hoping for the best (whatever that might be for any individual) but preparing for the worst. Barb and I rattled around the house, trying not to raise each other’s stress levels. We agree on most everything between us, but we can’t talk about any of it without getting each other riled up.
Allie called last night and reported that they have boarded up the plate glass windows in the lobby of her building. She’s having Dan come over today, making chili, and are prepared to hunker down there for a few days. Apparently cities all over the country have boarded up significant portions of street windows in anticipation of possible protests and looting over the coming days. Riot fencing went up around the White House.
As of late morning, things seem to be reasonably calm around the country. There are no real overt acts of voting disruptions which was one of the things I started to worry about thanks to the Ron Suskind article in the NY Times I wrote about in my October 31 post.
The polling suggests Biden still has a nearly 10 point lead over Trump nationally and seemingly solid enough margins in critical states to win rather handily. He is given a 90% shot at winning according FiveThirtyEight.com:
Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast).
That should reduce anxiety levels for me and others but the whole nation was so badly burned by forecasts and polling errors in 2016 that our fears are only heightened. Still, for the time being (as of noon), things seem to be progressing as close to “normal” as can be, and that is definitely good news.
—-
My late afternoon update is that voting seems to be proceeding pretty calmly which continues to be the best news. There have been no glaring incidents or disruptions. My own reading of the tea leaves seems positive but there’s no real data released yet. Exit polling results are embargoed until 5pm and the first actual polls close at 7pm. Results from Florida, Georgia and North Carolina should start coming in volume between 8-9pm so we won’t really have a feel for how things are going until then.
Assuming it’s a fair fight, God help the Democrats if they can’t win in this environment. Running against a historically poor president in the midst of a deadly pandemic and struggling economy should be a slam dunk. Maybe it will be. If it isn’t, if this election is actually close, it’s an indictment of the Democrats across the board. I’m hoping we will actually see a Democratic sweep of the White House and Senate. Anything less will be problematic on many, many levels.
For the moment, I’m allowing myself to be a little bit optimistic again. I’m going to start making my chicken and bean soup shortly which will keep me occupied for awhile, anyway. Soon I can start drinking, too!
—–
8:45pm. The soup was delicious, btw, and the gin and tonics are flowing. The NY Times is running a “needle” watch on three key states: Florida, Georgia and North Carolina. If Biden wins any of the three he has a glide path to the presidency. About an hour ago the needle for Florida shifted decisively toward Trump, evidently thanks to Latino (especially Cuban and Venezuelan) votes in South Florida. Maybe a half hour ago the needle for Georgia went to Trump which was not hugely unexpected but was a Democratic hope. Meanwhile the NC needle was leaning Biden all evening. As of now, no more. It leans Trump. According to the NY Times page that means “it could be days or more before a winner is declared” in the overall race. Crap!
It appears Biden is outperforming Clinton in plenty of key counties (but not all, particularly in South Florida). The question is whether it is enough in the right precincts. Seems like we will be watching for a good while longer. Why this is even close is beyond me. But many things are.
—–
9:45pm. Ugh. It’s more clearly going to be a long night, at minimum. The networks are slowly catching up with the NY Times needles. Now the focus is shifting to Ohio where Biden is leading but hard to believe it will hold up. Similarly, Trump is leading Virginia which hardly seems likely to remain. The real contest seems to again be settling on Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and maybe Arizona. I doubt any of those states will be decided tonight. Stupid electoral college. I’ve switched to scotch.
—–
11:45pm. More ughs. It’s becoming more likely that we won’t have a decision tonight, as predicted by many and to the advantage of Trump. I still think that Biden will most likely squeak it out, but it shouldn’t be a squeak. Arizona is looking positive for Biden but not a done deal. As of now, Virginia looks red and North Carolina looks blue; neither will likely end up that way. The rest will come down to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin which will likely take several days to resolve.
As Judy Woodruff just said on PBS, the longer this stretches out the more room there is for mischief. That’s very much a worry, but even more of a worry to me is why the Democrats couldn’t pull out a clear win. The Senate races are also much in doubt with it seeming less likely the Democrats will be able to cement a majority.
If Biden is able to squeak in but faces a Republican Senate, we will be in for at least two more years of near paralysis. If Trump is able to squeak in with a Republican Senate and Supreme Court, God help us.
One has to wonder how the polls continue to undercount Republican support. By the polls, there shouldn’t be so many close races. It’s hard to imagine there was much of a last minute swing in voting decisions.
The scotch still flows for me, even though it shouldn’t. I’m not sure how much more I will be willing or able to wait it out.
—–
1am: The race continues. Biden still seems to have his nose ahead but it’s very close. Biden just spoke to his people and expressed confidence. Trump is likely to speak but I’m not sure I’ll stay up for it. Georgia is back in play and in fact the NY Times needle points back to Biden (but it still seems a long shot) though it may spark a recount. Pennsylvania will likely take until Friday to finish counting. I’m going to stay up a while longer but at this point I don’t expect a resolution tonight or even tomorrow.
I’m still astonished and sad that it’s this close. It does not bode well for the near future.
November 4
10:30am: The morning opens with things still officially uncertain. Votes are still being counted in eight contested states — Pennsylvania, Maine, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. At the moment, Biden leads in enough that he appears to have a clearer path to 270 but it’s not a done deal. The Trump people seem to think they still have a path but it appears to involve contesting votes in Pennsylvania received after election day.
I went to bed last night before Trump spoke at 2:30am to declare victory and insist that vote counting must stop. I’m glad I was already asleep otherwise I would have stayed awake and consumed more junk food and alcohol…of which I’d had too much already. I’m trying to remain calm and somewhat patient this morning as the vote tallies and “blue shift” takes effect. I’m hoping that things will be settled enough later today that enough key states will report enough votes to determine Biden as the winner, regardless of Pennsylvania and some of the others that will take a day or two more, at least.
It seems the Senate races will also take a while, with at least one in Georgia heading to a runoff in January. The Senate balance is much in question though Republicans easily retained a number of seats that seemed to be more of a contest.
—–
Keeping an eye on the virus, the numbers rise, still more sharply. I can only imagine that election day will accelerate the spread with so many people in line and indoors with each other across the country. Watch for an even sharper rise in case totals later in November…just in time for Thanksgiving. Then watch another rise in time for Christmas. I’m guessing the peak will come in February with deaths cresting later that month. Hopefully we will start on the true downslope in March. That’s not a happy prognosis at all, but seems likely.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 47,600,000; Daily average: 507K; Total Deaths: 1,220,000
- USA cases: 9,470,000; Daily average: 85K; Total Deaths: 233,000
- Maryland cases: 148,000 Deaths: 4,162; “trending poorly” per CovidExitStrategy.org
- 1 states “Trending Better”
- 2 states “Caution Warranted”
- 8 states “Trending Poorly”
- 41 states “Uncontrolled Spread”
—–
10pm: It’s been a day of slow progress. The experts called Wisconsin for Biden by midday followed by Michigan later in the day. That gets him close but still needing two more states out of Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, or Pennsylvania on its own. The counting is moving slowly in each, with Pennsylvania likely to take the longest.
Trump will sue for recounts or other questions of anomalies but they don’t seem likely to have much effect but to delay the final outcome and make some lawyers richer. A happy byproduct of the results today is that he and his camp have been mostly quiet — a very welcome respite. I can go to bed in a more placid state of mind.
November 5
10am: Today, hopefully, will be the day to put Biden over the top. Final vote counts are expected from Georgia and Arizona that might do the trick. Trump is ahead marginally in Georgia but losing ground; Biden is ahead more substantially in Arizona but also watching his lead shrink. Both states will end up close and will likely face recounts but the recounts are not likely to change the overall results.
Pennsylvania and Nevada are targeting results tomorrow. The same dynamics are in place with a substantial Trump lead in Pennsylvania but many outstanding votes likely for Biden, and a small Biden margin in Nevada that may or may not hold up. It’s not a done deal, but Trump would need to sweep the table to win, I believe. There’s still a scenario where it could end in a tie but that seems least likely. Then again, it’s 2020.
The Senate races have not worked out well for the Democrats. It seems most likely the Republicans will retain a one or two vote advantage, though we won’t know until January after the Georgia runoff(s). It appears Mitch McConnell will remain in the catbird seat as Senate majority leader and the main foil to any sweeping Democratic agendas. The fights for 2022 and 2024 begin with a tilt toward the Republicans, frankly, since the party of the President usually faces an uphill battle in midterms. But that’s getting ahead of ourselves.
My main tasks for the day are to make it through the Maids coming this morning and mowing the lawn later. Barb’s at work for her one time per week. Fortunately, it’s warm enough today for me to sit on the deck while the Maids are here. I’m not sure where I will go when it gets too cold for this refuge. Later in the day I will mow the lawn for maybe the last time this year (though I suspect it will need at least one more mowing to clear up the leaves that have yet to fall). This weekend the plants will go down to the basement. Winter is coming. The hunkering gets more serious.
—–
I passed up making a later entry because not much changed through the course of the day. Votes were counted, slowly and carefully, and Trump’s leads in Pennsylvania and Georgia continued to shrink but he was still ahead through the evening. The momentum was clearly on Biden’s side but the numbers weren’t there yet. I went to bed around 1:30am figuring that Friday would be the deciding day after all.
November 6
And sure enough, by the time I woke up, Biden had nosed ahead in Georgia and more decisively in Pennsylvania. It appears all over but for the shouting and blustering of which there will be plenty. As of 1pm, no networks have definitively called the race for Biden, but it appears inevitable, finally, mainly due to his strength in Pennsylvania. The networks have said they are waiting for enough votes to give Biden a near-certain margin in Pennsylvania, probably at least 20,000-30,000. It seems Biden is planning to make an acceptance speech in the early evening.
I’m definitely glad that Biden appears to have won. The alternative was entirely unthinkable. I hope he will end up with several states as a cushion, at least close to what Trump had in 2016. It seems we won’t know for sure for at least another week or two. But that’s OK as long as the race is decided, preferably today. The smallest glimmer of hope remains that the Democrats might gain control of the Senate since both Georgia races are headed to runoff elections in January — but it’s a vanishingly slim hope.
So, our long national nightmare of the last four days and the last four years is drawing to a close. Time to roll over and start a new one. I don’t have the energy to think too much about it yet. At least Trump will be out of the White House though I doubt he will leave the stage quietly or gracefully. In fact, he likely won’t leave the national stage at all and may become even more obnoxious. But that’s another chapter.
Getting back to the virus, we topped more than 120,000 cases yesterday, a 20% jump over the record of the day before. I’d say that’s an accelerating trend. In just two days we’ve added more than 1 million cases worldwide and 20,000 deaths. In just a few days we will top 10 million cases in the U.S. Nearly all the country is in “uncontrolled spread.”
Numbers:
- Global cases: 48,800,000; Daily average: 528K; Total Deaths: 1,240,000
- USA cases: 9,700,000; Daily average: 96K; Total Deaths: 235,000
- Maryland cases: 140,000 Deaths: 4,182; “trending poorly” per CovidExitStrategy.org
- 1 states “Trending Better”
- 1 states “Caution Warranted”
- 7 states “Trending Poorly”
- 43 states “Uncontrolled Spread”
I made the call yesterday to cancel out of my indoor tennis group for the foreseeable future. I played only two weeks and wasn’t comfortable with it. My doctor helped make my decision by discouraging me from playing doubles, so I could say it was by doctor’s orders.
The All the Best Festival sent an email yesterday that they are postponing the event indefinitely and issuing refunds. Sigh. I was holding out the faintest hope of the festival going forward in Punta Cana in May 2021, but no more. It may eventually be rescheduled. Or maybe not. It was nice while it lasted.
November 7
I honestly thought yesterday would put Biden over the top. He and Kamala were clearly planning to give a victory speech last night but the vote counting dragged on through the day. Biden’s leads are growing in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada and shrinking somewhat in Arizona but they are all still too close to call. Maybe today. Patience, as they say.
It’s Saturday and Barb is at aerobics which they can still do outside. Our only other plan today is to try a new restaurant, Bushel and a Peck, in the Clarksville space vacated by Food Plenty. I suspect it may be one of the last times we eat out for a while, both because it’s getting colder (though still very nice for another week or so here) and mostly because of the virus. I got my hair cut yesterday for what I suspect will be the last time until spring.
We had over 130,000 cases in the U.S. yesterday and they’re forecast to rise near 300,000 (and near 2,000 daily deaths) in a month or so. We’re nearing hospital capacity at some places in the country (and in Europe). Things seem certain to get considerably worse very quickly.
—-
At 11:30am the dam finally broke. Enough votes came in from Pennsylvania for the networks and experts to call the state for Biden which put him over the top. Barb actually got the alert moments before Allie texted me and I confirmed it from multiple sources. The sense of relief is palpable, especially from Barb.
I watched for a while on the various news networks as the various panelists bloviated and happy crowds started filling the streets of DC, NY, Philadelphia and more. It happens to be a gloriously lovely day all over the east coast so people are eager to gather outside, virus be damned.
Totally appropriately, in you-can’t-make-this-stuff-up manner, Trump was playing golf at his course in Virginia when word came out. It will be fun to get the visual of his motorcade returning to a White House surrounded by Biden supporters. But his staff still managed to issue a scabrous statement that the election is not over yet. Good luck with that.
I’m going to take a walk and enjoy the lovely afternoon. I’m taking an apple cake over to our neighbor, Janice, who worked very, very hard for this day.
November 9
It’s the Monday after the Saturday when the election was called for Biden, less than a week after the election itself. Pfizer announced this morning that it appears to have an effective vaccine for the virus. Stock markets jumped many percent (the Dow is up 1600 points this morning) on the news. Time will tell whether there is a legitimate cause for euphoria. Probably not — there are practical realities of completing the test protocols, vaccine production, transport at super-cold conditions and distribution to billions of prospective patients, to name a few — but it certainly seems like positive news, at the very least.
Trump is probably furious this news didn’t come out just one week earlier as he clearly had hoped and planned. Biden and the Democrats are probably breathing a small sigh of relief that the announcement didn’t come sooner as it may have been all that was needed to tilt the election in Trump’s favor. It’s crass to immediately cast important scientific and public health news in crudely political terms, but how can we not? It’s a crass and crude political time. It will, however, give the media and everyone else something new to discuss and speculate about. The election analysis and self-congratulation was quickly getting old anyway.
In the meantime, I’m very worried about the course of the virus over the next four months or so. With a vaccine on the horizon, will people be even less likely to take reasonable steps to slow the spread? We are well into newly exponential growth in case levels. Medical resources are getting stretched and death counts are likely to rise. Here are snapshots of the U.S. forecasts I mentioned in my previous post: we appear on track to reach 300,000 daily cases and 2,000 daily deaths and 300,000 total deaths by the end of the year.
The forecasts on a global basis are for nearly 2,000,000 deaths by year’s end with more than 4,000,000 new cases every day. It’s mind boggling growth from our current levels, and that’s just within the next two months. Those estimates are based on current levels of global prevention measures. With universal mask compliance we might cut them the daily death and case totals in half, but what is the likelihood we will achieve immediate universal compliance?
Without much fanfare over the weekend, we crossed thresholds of 50 million global cases and 10 million in the U.S. Maryland dropped into “Uncontrolled Spread” territory, as has Massachusetts, Colorado and the vast majority of the country. Things are getting much worse, very fast, while we as a nation have been mightily distracted.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 50,500,000; Daily average: 556K; Total Deaths: 1,260,000
- USA cases: 10,100,000; Daily average: 111K; Total Deaths: 238,000
- Maryland cases: 154,000 Deaths: 4,212; “uncontrolled spread” per CovidExitStrategy.org
- 0 states “Trending Better”
- 2 states “Caution Warranted”
- 6 states “Trending Poorly”
- 44 states “Uncontrolled Spread”
Biden is announcing his own virus advisory panel today which makes it look like he’s doing something, but Trump and his cronies are still the ones actually in charge…and they’re not doing anything. No new national planning is imminent before the inauguration in January. States remain on their own and no one is eager to implement new stringent lockdowns. It’s hardly a recipe to slow the rampant spread of the virus over the coming months. I expect to hunker down more strictly but I suspect even Barb thinks I’m overly cautious.
We spoke with Betsy and Joe yesterday. Barb actually joined in which is rare. Betsy is still working at school every day with “full” classes of 17 students, even though several teachers and her school’s principal are out with positive cases. She says the husband of one of her colleagues died this week very suddenly from the virus. Betsy’s taking a casserole or something to her colleague. It’s honestly the first instance of someone within three degrees of separation from us dying, which in itself seems remarkable and a testament to how economically and socially isolated we are. We know hardly anyone (and no one closely) who’s even tested positive. [I take that back: there was also the brother of a robotics colleague (Angie) in Virginia who died back in March. I didn’t know him but I felt very bad for her — not that she would know it — but it does count as within two degrees of separation, I suppose.]
Barb actually had a relaxed weekend once the news broke that Biden had won. The weather was great and Barb spent most of the weekend on the porch getting caught up on magazines, books and even reading some news while she listened to Christmas music. I couldn’t begrudge her the downtime — she more than deserves it — but the Christmas music kept me away from the porch. I took several long walks instead, which was probably all for the better.
We also spoke with Allie last night. She tested negative after her trip to Denver and seems to be in fine shape in Boston with Perri. She plans to spend Thanksgiving with Dan’s family which I’m not terribly happy about but seems hard to prevent. She is thinking of coming down here around Christmas, probably on December 20 just after Perri’s neutering operation and returning December 30 in time for New Year’s. The thought is that I will drive up and back both times to ferry her. I don’t mind driving and we’d love to have her down here for any amount of time, but I think it remains to be seen whether it will really happen. I think it will be a period of high caution. It’s hard to imagine actual lockdowns, but it’s possible. Massachusetts is already imposing a 9pm curfew, says Allie.
It remains an interesting time to be alive and see what unfolds day by day. It would be nice for it to be a little less interesting. Having Biden elected is a big step in that direction but we have a long way to go.
November 12
The virus rates continue to accelerate. The U.S. and Maryland are now setting new records nearly every day. Death rates are starting to rise. Gov. Hogan took a small step to cut indoor dining capacity to 50% and discourage gatherings of more than 25 people (except for churches which are still allowed 250). Some other states have tightened scattershot restrictions. It doesn’t seem like near enough to blunt the growth.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 52,300,000; Daily average: 579K; Total Deaths: 1,290,000
- USA cases: 10,500,000; Daily average: 128K; Total Deaths: 242,000
- Maryland cases: 159,000 Deaths: 4,249; “uncontrolled spread” per CovidExitStrategy.org
- 0 states “Trending Better”
- 2 states “Caution Warranted”
- 3 states “Trending Poorly”
- 47 states “Uncontrolled Spread”
Trump is still in denial about losing the election and most of the Republican party is right in line with him. It’s gumming up some of the transition process but Biden’s people seem to be moving forward where they can. Very few good things seem likely to actually happen in Washington for the next two months until Inauguration Day. Very bad things are still quite possible. It’s a sad state of affairs.
Dr. Fauci made a statement that he thinks most people in the U.S. can get vaccine shots by the end of April, or within six months. It would be nice if that were true. It seems possible but not quite likely. I’m a little heartened to think that Barb and I might qualify as higher risk patients and might jump earlier in line for a vaccine, so maybe by February or March for us? (Excuse me while my white privilege is showing.) In any case, it represents a light at the end of the tunnel, of sorts. The challenge will be to keep the most people alive as possible (including me and everyone I know) until we reach that point. It seems especially cruel for those dying as we get closer to a vaccine.
It’s nice to begin to contemplate what a post-vaccine world will look like, but it feels too soon to spend many cycles on it. There are too many short-term threats to worry about to indulge in longer term planning and fantasies. The challenge for the moment is staying safe and staying alive…and figuring out our next meals and viewing entertainment.
November 17
It’s been a week since I last reported on the virus. Let’s see how bad things have gotten.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 55,200,000; Daily average: 583K; Total Deaths: 1,330,000
- USA cases: 11,300,000; Daily average: 150K; Total Deaths: 247,000
- Maryland cases: 168,000 Deaths: 4,309; “uncontrolled spread” per CovidExitStrategy.org
- 0 states “Trending Better”
- 1 states “Caution Warranted” (Hawaii)
- 2 states “Trending Poorly” (Vermont, Maine)
- 49 states “Uncontrolled Spread”
In just one week we’ve added nearly 3 million cases and 40,000 deaths worldwide; 800,000 cases and 5,000 deaths in the U.S (now averaging more than 150,000 cases per day); and 9,000 cases and 60 deaths in Maryland. Nearly the whole country is in “uncontrolled spread.” It feels like it.
There’s no leadership from Trump — who’s still whining about the election when he’s not playing golf — or anyone else in Washington. Various states are doing various things. Within Maryland, various counties are doing various things but it’s all about “turning down the dial” on letting fewer people congregate rather than actually placing tight restrictions on anything. Indoor seating at restaurants is limited to 50% or 25% depending on the county. Bars are still open. Churches are allowed up to 250 people at a time. It all amounts to asking people to pee a little bit less in the pool. Hospital capacity is still relatively decent in Maryland, maybe 50-60% full, but it’s much tighter in other places around the country. Hospital staff and resources are reaching limits but so far haven’t seemed to cross into catastrophes. Yet.
One bright spot of news is that a second company, Moderna, reported very positive preliminary findings that its vaccine is 95% effective against the virus. That means two vaccines are going for emergency approval and we may have upwards of 40 million doses available by the end of December.
Another relatively bright spot is that some of the European countries that had bad surges in October and early November (France, Spain, Belgium, Czech Republic, Netherlands among them) are already seeing caseloads decline after instituting tighter restrictions short of full lockdowns. It can be done. Laurie reports that restaurants and bars are closed in Segovia but she can still take walks and I think kids are still in school. Laurie was able to go to an art class yesterday that was indoors but very widely spaced.
We are still basically hunkered down ourselves. Barb visited one-on-one, outdoors with several people over the weekend. She goes into work one day each week. I go grocery shopping 2-3 times each week and we get take out lunch or dinners several times each week. There are still plenty of corners of the house I can hide in while Barb’s on conference calls for work. I’m listening to more music on headphones. It’s not too difficult, just repetitive. It’s nice to think it might only be like this for a limited period of time until we can get a vaccine. We just need to be extra careful until then. We made it to the election when it seemed so far away, we can make it until spring. I keep telling myself that.
In the meantime, I keep indulging in foods that I shouldn’t. I’m heading off to the deli to get whitefish salad for Barb and some gargantuan sandwich or salad (or two) for myself. I thought I would have some frozen shrimp scampi tonight that has been languishing in our freezer. I checked the label and it says best if used by August 2015. I think maybe I’ll actually throw it out. Gives me an excuse to get more from the deli!
November 23
I’m struggling to come up with new ways to say the virus is getting worse. Warnings are rampant for people to stay home for Thanksgiving, that virus spread is unchecked everywhere (except Hawaii) and hospitals are getting dangerously full all over the country. Nevertheless, it’s guaranteed that lots of people are traveling and even more (including us) are planning some sort of gathering, even if it’s smaller. This will doubtless lead to an even greater spike in coming weeks, just in time for Christmas, as we’ve known all along. Hospitals are likely to get overwhelmed soon. The next three months will be the worst we’ve seen.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 58,700,000; Daily average: 593K; Total Deaths: 1,339,000
- USA cases: 12,300,000; Daily average: 171K; Total Deaths: 257,000
- Maryland cases: 182,000 Deaths: 4,434; “uncontrolled spread” per CovidExitStrategy.org
- 0 states “Trending Better”
- 1 states “Caution Warranted” (Hawaii)
- 0 states “Trending Poorly”
- 51 states “Uncontrolled Spread”
This nation, even more than the rest of the world, is walking straight into tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths over the coming months. This time, our eyes are relatively wide open. Some are in denial but most of us know what’s coming and still can’t seem to take much more than the mildest restrictions on our activities. I include ourselves, unfortunately.
Here’s our situation. Barb stumbled into this pre-Thanksgiving weekend having made no plans to see anyone or do anything. Two empty days yawned before her. She spent Saturday in front of the TV, catching up on taped episodes of things I won’t watch with her, paying bills and doing some reading and puzzles. Out of sympathy and somewhat against my better judgement, I offered to drive Barb out to Frederick Sunday for a lunch at Manalu where she can get her veal francaise. It’s one of her favorite meals and the drive gave her a chance to read a bunch of magazines and things. The virus is spreading at full speed in Maryland — cases up close to 90% in the past two weeks — but went went ahead to a restaurant, sat in a tent “outdoors” in 50-degree weather and hoped there was sufficient circulation to keep us safe. It’s not the best choice I’ve made lately but we rolled the dice and hoped we got a good meal out of it and nothing else. The meal was good, by the way.
Speaking of good meals, Barb went out of her way Thursday evening to check out our former favorite spot, Hot Pot Hero. She found them open and more flexible about carryout orders than I’d thought. On Friday we placed our basic order of mushroom broth, beef, chicken, spinach and bean sprouts to go. We already had an extra bag of spinach and all the various sauces we liked at home; I chopped up some scallions, ginger and cilantro. We brought it all home, cooked it in a big pot over the stove and had nice meals for Friday and Saturday. It was tasty and made Barb very happy.
My fear is that we are now consigned to having hot pot every Friday and Saturday from now on. Barb seems fine with that idea. Hot Pot Hero had been our Friday go-to spot for the past couple of years, having supplanted Sakura for Barb. I’m fine with having routines, but we’ve already fallen into Italian every Wednesday from Stella Notte which has half price pizza. Barb gets the same mushroom pizza and Piccolo Caprese salad which lasts her two nights. I shop around for different things from Stella Notte’s menu but it’s gotten boring pretty quickly, plus very little of it qualifies on my recommended diet. Hot Pot is a little better for my diet, if I’m careful to avoid soy sauce and other salty sauces. It’s the repetition I find dull, but Barb seems to crave it. I guess I shouldn’t complain.
Dan and David called last week to invite us to Thanksgiving dinner at their house. Barb immediately gave them a tentative “yes” and said she would check with me. I have reservations about spending time indoors with others but decided I would do it for Barb’s sake. Before I could actually communicate that to her, she went ahead and told Dan we are coming. So be it.
We learned that Allie plans to spend the whole Thanksgiving weekend at Dan’s house with his family. She’s bringing Perri. We’re not thrilled but can do little to stop it, especially if we can’t resist going over to our own friends’ house ourselves. Everyone’s taking a calculated risk without really knowing the calculation — just hoping for the best for everyone.
After a short cold snap the weather turned nice again and on the weekend I was able to get some outdoor chores done like taking all of Barb’s plants to the basement for the winter and getting the lawn mowed, maybe for the last time this year.
I finished a series of Billzpage posts on building the Pfefferkorn house. I felt a little sense of accomplishment for getting through the posts with hundreds of photos and for writing a little Afterword to sum up the experience. It prompted a nice comment from Laurie that fostered a dialogue about vases and flowers she brought us from Mexico. I will incorporate it into upcoming posts as we get moved into the house.
I present all this as an example of the mundane possibilities of life where the virus and Trump do not dominate our waking moments. The virus is still awful and getting worse quickly but there is progress on the vaccine front so there’s a possible end nearly in sight. Trump is still awful but he’s been mostly laying low while his henchmen run through the charade of contesting the election. There’s a possible end nearly in sight, though now the speculation is shifting to what his role might be after January and whether he will run again in 2024. Heaven help us.
November 25
I saw a breakdown of Covid cases and deaths by age in Maryland and was somewhat surprised to see that people age 60 and over account for only 20% of the total cases but 87% of the deaths. I knew in general that older people were more vulnerable but I didn’t realize the numbers were quite so stark. I would have thought they (we) would account for a greater percent of the caseload, at least. Of Maryland’s total 5 million people, 15% are over 60.
I don’t know if these numbers hold up nationally; I’m not sure they’re available nationally (they are, sort of, but not in a convenient manner). I wish they were reported more widely and regularly to emphasize just how vulnerable older populations are to this disease.
In local news, Allie baked her first cheesecake using Barb’s (actually Gerry Carlton’s) recipe. It only required multiple phone calls and messages, and much anxiety, but the end result looks good, from a distance. She will take it to Dan’s tomorrow for the judging.
Crust 
First layer 
Finished product!
Meanwhile, I did some thinking and research yesterday about a possible trip to Australia and New Zealand after Barb’s retirement in two years. Viking Cruises offer a decent itinerary for a 15-day cruise covering the two countries, and it turns out they’ve already opened 2023 bookings and are offering an excellent cancellation package until the end of this month. I mentioned it to Barb and she seems game to place a deposit to hold our place for February 2023. It seems like a very easy way to take a lot of legwork and anxiousness out of the equation. I’m going to wait a couple of days to see if Viking offers any Black Friday discounts but will book it by this weekend. It will be nice to have something specific to look forward to even if it’s a long way away. I hope we have better luck than we did with the All The Best Festival.
November 29
It’s Sunday and we’ve made it through Thanksgiving. Congratulations to us.
I don’t mean to complain. It’s been a nice long weekend with only some of the melancholy of not being together as a family, even our small nuclear one. Barb and I had a pleasant Thanksgiving meal with Dan and David. We made potatoes, green bean casserole and pumpkin pie. Dan did all the rest: turkey, pork loin, sweet potatoes, asparagus, cornbread and apple pie. We ate indoors, reasonably distanced. It was a nice warm day so I went outside for a bit but felt mostly comfortable in their house without a mask. When I did put my mask on as Barb and Dan chatted after dinner, the others made a nod toward putting theirs on but it didn’t last. Altogether we were there for three hours. We brought some leftovers home and so far don’t think we brought home anything else.
Allie had Thanksgiving with Dan and his family in Boston. She brought Perri and they seem to have had a fine time together. We haven’t had a lot of details but a few pictures of Perri seeming comfortable. Allie should be home this evening and perhaps we’ll hear more.
Barb worked at home on Friday while I went ahead and booked the New Zealand/Australia cruise. The Viking website says one can book a cruise in 15 minutes but it took me several hours and a long additional phone call with them to get the details sorted out. The price tag rose as I added nights in Auckland and Sydney before and after the cruise, and really jumped when I opted for business class air. The total ends up being just about equal to the Regent Cruise line that Jenny and Yonie use and I always thought was over-the-top exorbitant.
At many levels this cruise goes against my every instinct, principle and conscience about travel: financially, environmentally, culturally, medically, and perhaps spiritually. It’s a ridiculously expensive splurge for just three weeks, geared toward Americans (no doubt mostly older Republicans), environmentally wasteful as can be (both the cruise itself and the flights halfway around the world), hitting ports for one day only with only a few excursions I can imagine really enjoying, the very idea of being on daily bus tours with clots of annoying people, and missing some places I’d like to see (NZ fjords, for example). I will eat and drink too much, not exercise enough, and be cooped up in enclosed places with people I won’t want to be around even if we are healthy and vaccinated. Nevertheless, I’m thrilled to have our specific cabin booked for specific dates. It’s a bucket list capstone to mark Barb’s retirement and I’m delighted to have it locked and in our pockets. I’m going to enjoy anticipating it for the next two-and-a-quarter years at least as much as I will actually enjoy the three week trip; I think Barb will as well.
While I was kicking around the details of this cruise, I also thought about our prospects for 2021 travels. Barb expressed some interest in doing something with Betsy and Joe, maybe bringing them to the Caribbean at some point. The more I thought about it (over several sleepless nights as I rattled through all the possibilities), the more it made sense to me to try to gather folks nearer to Denver. I broached the idea of renting a house/condo in the mountains over the summer when Betsy was out of school and after Sara’s baby. Barb didn’t flinch too much so I contacted Betsy to float the idea and get potential dates. She and Joe seemed excited, suggested the week after July 4 and that I contact Sara for help picking a spot. I did and she promptly researched a dozen possible places near Breckenridge. There are lots of good alternatives. I will sort through them and make decisions over the next few weeks. I hope that Allie and maybe Dan can come out and that Sara, Tylor and Kristen can manage to take time off to join us. The prospect of getting the Duncan-Embrey side of the family together for a week in July seems like a fine and fitting Thanksgiving/Christmas present to us all.
Getting back to food, Barb insisted we get hot pot Friday night — Thanksgiving, she pointed out, was not her meal — so we had even more leftovers to deal with afterwards. Yesterday Betsy Pelovitz came over to help make a dent in the Thanksgiving leftovers and stayed out on the porch chatting with Barb for much of the afternoon. Barb needs someone to talk to on weekends so thank you, Betsy. Barb and I reprised the hot pot dinner on Saturday night. Our new routine is now set, just two weeks after discovering we could place an a la carte hot pot take out order.
It’s been nice to focus on food, family and potential travels rather than being consumed by the virus or political headlines. In fact, it’s been extremely nice to see political headlines recede into their rightful background place. Trump is being relatively quiet and increasingly irrelevant. We can only hope that trend continues. The virus, however, shows little sign of abating though the numbers got “blurry” lately as the holiday interrupted testing and reporting. The numbers will likely stay unsettled for a few more days so we won’t really know where things stand for another couple of weeks. For the moment, the numbers seem to show a slight flattening of the curve but it’s likely a holiday illusion.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 62,500,000; Daily average: 587K; Total Deaths: 1,460,000
- USA cases: 13,300,000; Daily average: 163K; Total Deaths: 266,000
- Maryland cases: 195,000 Deaths: 4,602; “uncontrolled spread” per CovidExitStrategy.org
- 0 states “Trending Better”
- 1 states “Caution Warranted” (Hawaii)
- 2 states “Trending Poorly” (Maine, Vermont)
- 49 states “Uncontrolled Spread”
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