Part seven of my ongoing journal entries about life in the time of the 2020 Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic. Part One (Jan-Mar, 2020) is here. Part Two (April 2020) is here. Part Three (May 2020) is here. Part Four (June 2020) is here. Part Five (July 2020) is here. Part Six (August 2020) is here, Part Seven (September 2020) is here.
October 12
Happy Columbus Day, or Indigenous Peoples’ Day, as it is now officially called here in Howard County. I didn’t realize it had been two weeks since my last entry. We made our journey to Boston to see Allie in the first week of October; it took me a little while to compile notes from the Boston trip but they are now done. The trip was not hugely momentous but we had a very good time seeing Allie and meeting her kitten Perri.
The news itself has been nothing but aggravating so I haven’t been terribly motivated to document every twist and turn. Trump has been in and out of the hospital with the virus, coming out even more obnoxious than before. He has nominated deeply conservative Amy Coney Barrett to fill Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg’s seat on the Supreme Court and Mitch McConnell is pulling out all the stops to get her seated before the election and before a big Affordable Care Act case a week later. Trump and Biden had the first of their debates and it was, officially, a “shit show” as declared by Dana Bash on CNN immediately after. Those are just some of the major boulders in an avalanche of distractions and disasters rolling through the headlines on a daily basis for the past few weeks.
The virus is ramping up all over the world, with the highest daily totals of 325,000+ new cases being eclipsed regularly. We’re globally adding one million new cases every three days. India is catching up to the U.S. as the country with the most infections, though its rate is finally starting to trend down slightly. The daily average in the U.S. has moved back up to 49,000, a rise of 15% in the past few weeks.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 37,600,000; Daily average: 320K; Total Deaths: 1,080,000
- USA cases: 7,790,000; Daily average: 49K; Total Deaths: 215,000
- Maryland cases: 132,000 Deaths: 3,999; “caution warranted” per CovidExitStrategy.org
- 2 states “Trending Better”
- 5 states “Caution Warranted”
- 18 states “Trending Poorly”
- 27 states “Uncontrolled Spread”
A glimmer of somewhat positive news is that hospitalizations and the death toll from the virus are not rising as rapidly as the case load. It seems to be a combination of improved therapeutics, younger people getting infected, possibly lower doses of infection, and maybe a slight weakening of the virus.
Another glimmer of hopeful news is that Biden seems to be maintaining or even growing a solid lead in the polls, both nationally and in key states. Trump keeps stumbling and seems to keep pushing voters away. But we are conditioned to not trust the polls and there are still three weeks until election day. Awful things can still happen. Barb and I cast our ballots and I dropped them in the box yesterday. Laurie notes that her absentee ballot has been received. So we’ve done our bit, so far.
Some locally better news is that no one got sick from our trip to Boston and Laurie reports that she is feeling better after having some illness and getting a negative Covid test. We are settling back into our home routines. We celebrated Barb’s birthday a bit early with a steak frites dinner at Medium Rare (outside) last Saturday and have reservations at Xenia for her official birthday dinner (but mostly the little Greek doughnuts for dessert) next Saturday. She is working 1-2 days in the office each week. We prepare to hunker down for the fall and winter.
Allie is preparing to go out to Denver in a couple of weeks for Sara’s gender reveal party. Allie will stay about a week or so to see the Embreys but also a handful of other friends who happen to have all moved to Denver recently. Allie is a little worried about making the trip but there seem to be enough reasons to go to make it worthwhile. Unfortunately, it looks like she may have to quarantine in her apartment for two weeks after she returns due to Massachusetts’ ongoing travel restrictions. But then again, who will know?
In other friend news, Patti’s daughter Christine announced she will get married to her boyfriend Hunter on April 10 in Newport News. We are invited. Barb thinks it’s optimistic. Also, we just learned that our friend Chris Garwood is packing up to move to California under rapid and mysterious circumstances. She just called to speak with Barb but promises to tell us more about it once she is on her way cross-country. Seems like a big step in the midst of all this craziness but we hope she has some good news to motivate her. Stay tuned.
October 13
Some news worth reporting: Chris Garwood called us yesterday and Barb returned the call last night. I’d seen on Facebook via Chris (who rarely posts) that her brother, Stu, had massive injuries bodysurfing in North Carolina and was in the hospital. Chris tucked into one of the comments an oh-by-the-way note that she was moving soon to California. On the call with Barb, Chris relayed all the gory details of Stu’s accident, including being medevac’d to a Norfolk hospital and actually having no heartbeat for five minutes. Very fortunately, he seems to be recovering and is on his way home from the hospital.
Chris, meanwhile, is very imminently moving. She’s packing her house and will be gone this weekend. She latched onto the concept of cohousing communities and has found one she likes in Paso Robles, CA, presumably Oak Creek Commons. All this developed in the last six weeks. She had been looking at various alternatives around the western US this summer but an opening came up at Oak Creek and everything fell into place. She sold her Baltimore house (for well above her expectation) and made her psychology practice virtual so she can continue with her clients as needed.
Toward the end of the call, Barb asked if there was anything we could do to help and all of a sudden we find ourselves hosting a farewell party for Chris this Saturday at her house. I woke up early this morning wondering how we can do this in a Covid-safe manner. No shrimp platters or cheese trays. I’m figuring out individually wrapped Costco snacks and things that can be served safely. I spent several hours this morning putting together an evite, getting Chris and Barb’s approval and sent it to a few dozen of her neighbors and friends. We’ll see how the whole thing goes. We moved Barb’s birthday dinner to the next night. So, suddenly our weekend and much of this week are filled with activity. Deb Dettmer is planning to drop by for lunch on Thursday, too.
Out of all of this activity we learn that Chris is friendly with Gerard again, and with his girlfriend to whom he was engaged for a while. It seems that once we can travel again we will likely plan a trip to California to see Gerard in LA, Chris in Paso Robles and probably the Hunsbergers in Sonoma. All sounds good to me.
I think Laurie is already tuned into the cohousing concept but I sent the link to her. It seems up her alley and maybe she already told me about them. There are several communities in and around Asheville that might be a good fit. It would be funny if that worked out.
On a separate note, I actually took time yesterday to read through my original post in this coronavirus series, covering February and March. I was both surprised and saddened to see that we knew pretty much by the end of March, just a couple of weeks into the lockdown, all we needed to know about the course of this virus and what we needed to do as a nation. We could also see that we weren’t doing it. If. If. If. So many lives could have been saved, so much disruption avoided. It’s agonizingly frustrating. Still, I’m glad I documented it for myself, at least. I feel like it’s been a useful exercise.
October 16
It’s Friday, the day before Barb’s birthday. Through happenstance and neighborliness we are helping throw a going away party for Chris Garwood tomorrow night and will save Barb’s birthday dinner at Xenia until Sunday. I’ve become the host for the party, sending evites and doing grocery shopping for what has become nearly 50 people, most of which we hope don’t show up or at least not at the same time. It will be good fun to see Chris and bid her farewell, plus she really seems to appreciate having this party, so all that is gratifying. I just hope that we can keep it all safe and not be a Covid-spreading event. It feels glaringly like the wrong time to do this but it’s the only time. We just need to keep it safe.
The virus is widely recognized to be starting another surge or wave across the country and around the world, especially in Europe. We topped 8 million cases in the U.S. and are about to cross 40 million worldwide; there were more than 400,000 new cases today for a new sad global record. Cases are rising in all but 5 states and territories — more than 65,000 today — with very high levels in the midwest and upper plains states. The death count in the U.S. has been below 1,000 per day for two months but it seems destined to rise again.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 39,100,000; Daily average: 320K; Total Deaths: 1,100,000
- USA cases: 8,020,000; Daily average: 53K; Total Deaths: 218,000
- Maryland cases: 135,000 Deaths: 4,032; “caution warranted” per CovidExitStrategy.org
- 2 states “Trending Better”
- 3 states “Caution Warranted”
- 19 states “Trending Poorly”
- 28 states “Uncontrolled Spread”
This autumn/winter surge is what was feared and seems right on schedule. It’s anyone’s guess how bad it will ultimately be. Gov. Cuomo was on TV last night saying that we are “at halftime, at best” with this virus. We haven’t done especially well in the first half and now we’ll find out if we track along with the 1918 pandemic which was far worse in its second big wave.
October 19
We survived the weekend of Chris’ party and Barb’s birthday. The party ended up being only a little chaotic as we arrived at 6pm with a car full of snacks and beverages. We had things mostly set up on Chris’ front lawn by 6:30 when guests and neighbors started arriving. Her next door neighbor had got a fire pit going which was pleasant on a chilly evening and helped people spread out. I mostly manned the food and drink table. About 30-40 people showed up, all in masks. Only a few were drinkers; we only went through two bottles of wine which had been the ostensible reason for throwing the party. I brought a lot of beer and wine home, along with a lot of snacks that we’re starting to work through even though we shouldn’t. Chris also gifted me a nice cooler with wheels. So, win-win.
Chris had a good time seeing her friends and bidding farewells, but she was exhausted by 9pm so we cut the proceedings short and got home. She went to a friend’s house for the evening and we later learned she woke up at 3am in terrible pain and had to go to the ER. She’s been diagnosed with a kidney stone. She’s got medications and no longer in pain, but I’m not sure what that does with her plans to drive cross-country. She was planning to spend a few days with her brother, Stu, in Frederick where now they can recuperate together, I guess. We wish them both well.
Sunday became Barb’s more proper birthday, though she did get to go to lunch with Gloria on Saturday. She only worked about four hours on Sunday then took the afternoon off. We went to dinner outdoors at Xenia which admittedly was more my choice than hers, but I tried to order a Barb-centric meal. We had saganaki, the Greek flaming cheese that is more fun in the tableside show than in the actual eating, along with Xenia’s wonderful fried zucchini chips. Barb had a crab soup and I ordered a ribeye steak thinking we would share it but I ended up bringing half of it home. For dessert we had the little Greek doughnut balls with honey, loukoumades, which we both enjoyed. The evening was cool and the patio heater we sat near was more show than heat, so we cut things a little short and got home for TV and a nice facetime call with Allie and Perri.
Tonight I have the first of my indoor tennis games with Deb Dettmer. I’m still not enthusiastic but have agreed to give it a try for the next couple of weeks, then see how things are looking next month.
I suspect this weekend marks the apex of our social activity for a while. I sincerely hope no one gets sick from these various adventures, particularly the party on Saturday. I guess we’ll know for sure within a couple of weeks. There were a couple of articles over the weekend designed to make me feel guilty. One was about how the Sturgis motorcycle rally in late August apparently seeded the current outbreak across the midwest and northern plains. Others were about how small family gatherings are now among the top causes of virus spread as people become complacent or just plain fed up with restrictions. I hope we’re not guilty on that count.
Global case counts crossed 40 million and we are adding about one million every three days, or two million each week. A small positive sign is that cases in India have been dropping over the past few weeks, indicating they may have peaked. So the U.S. may stay #1 for a while longer. Woot! Caseloads in Europe and the U.S. are rising enough to keep the overall global curve moving up, unfortunately. Maryland cases are on the rise, slightly, but overall we still seem to be in better shape than most.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 40,100,000; Daily average: 320K; Total Deaths: 1,110,000
- USA cases: 8,190,000; Daily average: 55K; Total Deaths: 220,000
- Maryland cases: 136,000 Deaths: 4,037; “caution warranted” per CovidExitStrategy.org
- 2 states “Trending Better”
- 6 states “Caution Warranted”
- 13 states “Trending Poorly”
- 31 states “Uncontrolled Spread”
This marks three whole posts over the past week without complaining about the election or general state of the world. That’s pretty good for me. We’ll call it a healthy sign. (But really, the election news is mostly the same old levels of anxiety and aggravation. Two weeks to go!!)
October 23
We’re now just 10 days from Election Day and we survived the final Trump-Biden debate last night. I watched about 10 minutes of it but it drove my anxiety and blood pressure up so much I had to retreat to the safer confines of fictional Danish politics (Borgen) and crime solving in the Australian Outback (Mystery Road). I tuned back in for some of the post-debate analysis and was relieved to learn that Biden didn’t harm himself too much even while Trump was mildly more presidential and not a total crackpot. It’s nice to think that this was Trump’s final debate and maybe one of the last times he will commandeer the airwaves for an extended period. One can only hope.
After our relatively high level of activities over the past couple of weeks we are settling back into our routines. Barb has gone into work only one day this week. We’ve had some unusually warm and pleasant weather for the week which made it easy for me to be on the porch watching the leaves change. The past few days have started off very foggy in the mornings until about noon when the sun finally burns through for very pleasant afternoons. I could get used to this, but the forecast looks to turn cooler next week.
Allie is currently on her flight to Denver to participate in Sara’s gender reveal celebration tomorrow. We will tune in via Zoom. Allie will be with Sara and Kristen for the weekend, then will switch to her friend Jeff’s where she will work for the first half of the week before moving to Vika’s for the second half. We hope she has a good time and stays safe. A friend of hers is staying at her place in Boston to keep Perri company.
We all expect to be hunkering down further over the coming weeks and months. The virus is spreading more rapidly each week, as was predicted and despite Trump’s assurances that we are “rounding the corner.” He keeps saying it, hoping that eventually it will be true. Instead, the U.S. topped 75,000 cases today, our second worst daily count. The entire United States is in “uncontrolled spread” territory, with cases increasing 30% in the last two weeks and hospitalizations rising 40% in the past month. The virus is expanding even more rapidly in Europe; 16 of the top 20 countries with the fastest growing case loads in the past week are European with Belgium and the Czech Republic having the worst outbreaks.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 41,800,000; Daily average: 400K; Total Deaths: 1,140,000
- USA cases: 8,460,000; Daily average: 60K; Total Deaths: 223,000
- Maryland cases: 138,000 Deaths: 4,070; “caution warranted” per CovidExitStrategy.org
- 2 states “Trending Better”
- 4 states “Caution Warranted”
- 11 states “Trending Poorly”
- 35 states “Uncontrolled Spread”
The U.S. death rate is averaging 775 daily, up about 10% over the past two weeks; that is more than 5,000 per week and 20,000 per month. More people still die from the virus in the U.S. each week than any other country. Rounding the corner.
Hence, we hunker. We’ll get an update on the Embreys from Allie and then hope she can get back to Boston without any drama. After that will be the election and we hope for positive (and definitive) results from that. The alternatives are too worrying to contemplate.
October 25
Shortly after writing my last entry on Friday, the 23rd, I had a nice long chat with Laurie. We caught up on the state of things in Spain: not good but not yet clamped down as tightly as before. Laurie wonders if things do clamp down whether to stay alone in Segovia or in La Losa with Maggie and the boys.
We talked about the writing and remembrances she’s working on, largely as part of her therapy. I’m glad she’s doing it and happy that I’ve helped pave a little bit of the way for her. Her writings are private, which is fine, though I hope she takes some care to share them at some point as a legacy for Maggie. I’d hate to see them evaporate.
We talked about things here in the States, centered on the election and all the various scary ways things might play out. We referenced The Atlantic (Gellman) and New Yorker (Toobin, before he exposed himself) articles and the summer wargame that sparked the worries (Radiolab “What If”). I posited that there are many possible bad outcomes but the best remedy would be a clear landslide victory for Biden and the Democrats in the election. It’s the only outcome I really want to consider.
Since our chat, I’ve been thinking about it further, reading more news, and concluded that (for better and worse) this is indeed one of the most interesting and unusual periods in my entire life. For the next few days until the election we’re in a state of suspended uncertainty, a kind of Schrodinger’s Box in real life. Many wildly divergent outcomes remain entirely possible if not entirely plausible. I don’t think I’ve lived through quite such a period of uncertainty. Maybe the Cuban Missile Crisis but I was too young to recognize it and I don’t think the public knew the scale of the crisis until years later. The period after 9/11 was miserable but there was not quite such a state of uncertainty of outcomes. I think today’s level of uncertainty approaches the years of 1939 or 1941 when the effects and outcomes of World War II were very much in play. The stakes today are not nearly that high, thankfully, but I’m hard pressed to think of any more recent equivalent.
There’s uncertainty over how the election itself will play out, whether the elections themselves can go smoothly (so far, so good with record early voting underway), whether Trump and the Republicans will accept the results, whether they will question the results strongly enough to really throw them into uncharted Constitutional waters, whether we might be saddled with multiple slates of electors from contested states, whether the outcome will come down to a Congressional vote or Supreme Court decision, whether there will be mass mobilizations of (armed) nutcases in the streets (good people from both sides, no doubt), and so on and so on. Potential outcomes that would have seemed ludicrous a few weeks or months ago seem more possible if (hopefully) not likely.
Then there’s the question of what the world will look like in 2021 and beyond when Biden or (god forbid) Trump actually takes office. Can the Democrats win a strong enough majority to enact some real progressive changes (I liked this NY Times column, End Minority Rule)? Will they have the will to do so? What backlash will that ignite? Will the Republicans hold enough ground to throw us into a prolonged stalemate? Will Trump actually manage to stay in office and trample still more norms and foster further chaos for four more years? What happens if either of these old men succumb to ill health or some crackpot’s actions (there is a virus going around, after all)?
There are just a lot of things that can go wrong and while those possibilities always exist, their probabilities seem higher and the unknowns seem greater. Having said all that, I choose to remain optimistic that we will muddle our way through. I prefer the path of Pollyanna rather than Chicken Little. I think it’s better for my mental health. I’m thankful that there is an election day coming very soon which offers, if not a definitive conclusion, at least a clear demarcation where some of these questions and uncertainties will resolve into a new picture. It’s an interesting time to witness, if nothing else.
Speaking of removing one uncertainty, Sara held her gender reveal yesterday. It’s a girl. Now she and we have about five more months of waiting to see her little face. Barb and I were able to successfully get on the Zoom call for reveal, along with dozens of Embreys and Sara’s and Betsy’s friends. It was a chaotic 15 minutes, not really a gathering at all. We saw Allie there among about a dozen actual attendees: Sara, Tylor, both sets of parents, Kristen and a few others we didn’t recognize. It was outdoors but I was mildly dismayed that no one was wearing masks and there was a lot of hugging afterwards. It’s the kind of thing folks shouldn’t be doing as the virus continues to spread at high levels. We’re hoping no one gets sick and Allie navigates her week in Colorado safely. Barb keeps guilting her about being there and leaving Perri. I’m just thinking that we dodged a bullet traveling to Aruba in early March, having Allie come down in June and then seeing her in Boston earlier this month. Virus roulette is not a game to keep playing.
So how is that virus? We broke records with Friday’s case load over 85,000 and more than 78,000 yesterday, both breaking previous U.S. highs. It’s accelerating quickly. In just two days since my last post we’ve had one million new cases and 10,000 deaths worldwide,
Numbers:
- Global cases: 42,800,000; Daily average: 400K; Total Deaths: 1,150,000
- USA cases: 8,640,000; Daily average: 66K; Total Deaths: 225,000
- Maryland cases: 140,000 Deaths: 4,091; “caution warranted” per CovidExitStrategy.org
- 2 states “Trending Better”
- 3 states “Caution Warranted”
- 13 states “Trending Poorly”
- 34 states “Uncontrolled Spread”
Allie doesn’t come home for another week. What will things look like then? (See, more uncertainty over a very short timespan. How often does one normally worry what the next week will bring?)
October 31
Happy Halloween! Three days until the election.
One of the favorite plays in the Wannabe-a-Dictator handbook is to take advantage of the chaos of a crisis that your people may or may not have had a hand in creating (examples: Napoleon and 18 Brumaire, Hitler and the Reichstag Fire, Putin and multiple apartment tower bombings). I’ve been quietly waiting for Trump or his acolytes to pull some kind of similar stunt and have been mildly surprised that we’ve made it through October without one. It seems like the election is bubbling along toward a likely Biden victory.
Then along comes yesterday’s opinion piece in the NY Times from Ron Suskind, “The Day After Election Day,” which posits the potential for election day shenanigans across the country. The article reads like a conspiracy fever dream where malign actors (Right wing? Left wing? Independent? Foreign? Domestic? Coordinated? Spontaneous?) cause enough chaos at key polling places to throw the legitimacy of the vote into question. From there, all the other puzzle pieces of Republicans contesting the election results come into play. The article hints that it’s based on worried leaks from the likes of former (and some current) Trump officials like Jim Mattis, John Kelley and Dan Coats.
I’m dismayed that this article has punctured my bubble of optimism and amped up my level of uncertainty. Now I’m trying to stay optimistic but will be on higher alert for Tuesday and the days immediately following. Thanks very much, NY Times and Ron Suskind. I don’t know Suskind well enough to really judge his credibility but he makes it sound like he’s speaking for people who make it their job to worry about worst case scenarios. I hate that we have to spend time in that world. I grudgingly respect but mostly resent the professionals that make it their career. The article points to a remote but plausible enough scenario that now I’m worried about election day itself. I still think it’s much more likely that, as the article mentions in an aside, “The anxiety we’re feeling now could turn out to be a lot of fretting followed by nothing much, a political version of Y2K.” I hope so.
The virus itself is exploding in the U.S. and worldwide. The U.S. had its worst week yet (just in time for the election), with more than 500,000 new cases and nearly 100,000 yesterday. Deaths are averaging close to 1,000 per day in the U.S. and more than 6,000 per day worldwide. Many European countries have reinstated shutdowns of various degrees.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 45,800,000; Daily average: 470K; Total Deaths: 1,190,000
- USA cases: 9,130,000; Daily average: 78K; Total Deaths: 230,000
- Maryland cases: 145,000 Deaths: 4,137; “trending poorly” per CovidExitStrategy.org
- 1 states “Trending Better”
- 2 states “Caution Warranted”
- 10 states “Trending Poorly”
- 39 states “Uncontrolled Spread”
On the personal side of things, earlier this week Barb and I visited our attorney to sign updated estate planning documents. I wanted to revise the trust we established in 2008 and took the opportunity to update our wills, medical directives and so forth. Once I get the final documents I need to re-title our investment holdings to get them into the new trust. Then we should be in decent shape should anything happen to one or both of us.
I also visited my doctor for my annual checkup. I’m generally healthy and my bloodwork showed my cholesterol and other levels moving in the right direction, so that was good to hear. My blood pressure, however, is now consistently high and pretty much at the threshold for hypertension. The doctor said he could prescribe medication but the much better path would be to lose 10-15 pounds over the next twelve months. He suggested I try the DASH diet which I had never heard of by that name. It’s a lower fat, lower sodium Mediterranean diet which basically equates to “healthy eating.”
The diet falls in line with my own realization that I need to lose weight, so I will make a more concerted effort to eat better and exercise a bit more. I know I said this a while back (September 5, to be exact) and haven’t made headway on my goal of getting below 240. I’ve been stuck in the 245-250 range for the past two months. I blame stress eating and the vast quantity of snacks I bought for Chris Garwood’s party which I subsequently brought home and have been working through. I’ll revise the goal to see if I can get to 240 in November.
I’ve been good about walking in the afternoons for the past six months and now rather enjoy the routine. I’m trying to add a little stretching and light weight workout before I walk. We’ll see how that goes. The diet itself looks reasonable for me but falls well outside Barb’s comfort zone. Somehow she managed to lose weight and improve her numbers despite eating almost everything we’re supposed to avoid. We still have a pantry full of no-no items like chips and crackers. I can’t bear to throw them out but will replace them with something better over time. Baby steps. We have to get through Election Day first.
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