Part three of my ongoing journal entries about life in the time of the 2020 Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic, with input from Laurie in Spain. Part One (Jan-Mar, 2020) is here. Part Two (April, 2020) is here.
May 1
It’s May Day. Seems appropriate.
There’s a report out today from the University of Minnesota (actual report, only 5 pages and quite readable) that predicts the virus will be with us for another 18-24 months. The report seems entirely reasonable and accurate from what little I’ve learned in the past couple of months. Its recommendations include planning for the worst including a spike in the fall that will require further mitigation actions. We’ll see how widely the report actually gets traction with policymakers who so far seem to harbor fantasies that the virus will disappear in a few weeks.
Trump refused to extend federal social distancing guidelines which expired yesterday, so states are pretty much on their own. About half of the states in the US, with mostly Republican governors representing about ⅓ of the total population, are loosening restrictions and encouraging various levels of businesses to reopen. It’s a hodgepodge approach that seems destined to result in higher rates of infection and death. It seems idiotic and evidence of malpractice, but that’s where we are in this country.
Politicians and ordinary citizens are understandably shaken by skyrocketing unemployment levels (now 30 million in the US, close to 20%) and the collapse of the economy (GDP declined almost 5% in the first quarter; second quarter will be much worse but we won’t know for at least two more months). We are in an economic depression at least as severe as the Great Depression and it’s likely to last at least into 2021. The best hope is that it won’t take a decade and World War to climb out of it. It seems time for politicians to start to recognize the depth and probable duration of this event and start discussing realistic plans to help the nation get through it. It would be nice to fast forward to the election in November; this is a time when a parliamentary snap election seems to make sense.
Numbers:
Global cases: 3,300,000 Deaths: 243,000
USA cases: 1,100,000 Deaths: 64,000
Maryland cases: 21,750 Deaths: 1,050
New York cases: 304,000 Deaths: 18,300
Spain cases: 215,000 Deaths: 24,800
Something odd has been going on with the numbers from Spain. Deaths have risen but the total case load has actually dropped after being flat for several readings, which seems wrong. I haven’t found an explanation.
Laurie reports that she is still in lockdown for at least several more weeks though some restrictions have lifted on children (but not teenagers) going outside.
We are biding our time well enough. I’ve started to feel more comfortable going to fetch restaurant dinners twice a week instead of zero or once. My latest indulgence was a run to Popeye’s which yielded enough fried chicken to last several meals. I sauteed some spinach to go with it to assuage my guilt a little bit.
May 2
There’s been a very perceptible shift in sentiment about the virus and our communal situation locally, within the US and worldwide just within the last few days. It’s directly linked to the calendar rolling over to May, yesterday being May Day and a major holiday in much of the world. It’s springtime in most of the northern hemisphere and the weather here this weekend is glorious. Having been inside for 6-8 weeks in various levels of lockdowns, people around the world are fed up and want to get out. Many jurisdictions in the US and around the world are loosening restrictions, which only makes it harder for other areas to resist. The big difference, of course, is that places outside the US like Spain, New Zealand, South Korea and others are doing it because their infection rates are clearly going down. In the US, governors are loosening restrictions without rates going down, and in many cases despite rising rates of infections and deaths.
Laurie reported on her first walk outside in seven weeks. She was restricted to one hour, and got it in before a plume of toxic smoke from a plastics recycling plant wafted over Segovia and drove everyone back indoors.
“On account of the possible toxicity of the smoke plume generated in the plastics recycling plant near to Segovia, it is recommended that people stay at home with the windows closed. I can see the cloud smoke floating by my window–another potential health disaster for us all to think about. Luckily I already took my walk this morning and even bought vegetables! I first saw the big cloud when I was at the veg stand.”
She also sent along a link I requested describing the phases of Spain’s “deescalation.” It reinforces two of my conclusions: a) different regions/countries have been under much stricter lockdowns than we have in the states (and it has differed greatly among the states), and b) it would make much more sense to have a global standard definition of these phases and then let local jurisdictions clarify where they choose to diverge from the standard. For Laurie it brings the depressing conclusion that she probably can’t venture to La Losa to see Maggie and the family until the end of June.
Laurie and I had a long call on What’s App yesterday, which was nice. I thought maybe I would try to help cheer her up but I doubt I did much good on that front. Nevertheless, it was nice to talk. She told me that the other night she, Maggie and her boys, Sue, Susanna and her kids all got together on Zoom to play Scattergories. They had a lot of fun and it was great to get them all together. Laurie was also set to participate in an online yoga/meditation class run by Donna Lee’s daughter, Cinnamon. Those are bright spots of technology helping people.
On the flip side, Laurie was telling me about a conversation she had recently with Maggie where they were discussing differences in the weather that day between La Losa and Segovia when all of a sudden the call dropped out and a weather warning for Segovia popped up on her screen. I posited that maybe she inadvertently pushed a button for Google Assistant or something like that. Laurie went on to tell me about the new addition to Maggie’s household: four chickens. They’ve built a ramshackle chicken coop in their small front yard already decimated by Sam’s archaeological digging and Juan’s attempt to build a storage shed. Laurie says it looks like Appalachia. When our call was complete, I had an email waiting in my inbox from YouTube featuring videos on how to raise chickens. We both agreed that was creepy. I suspect Google may be watching and listening far more than they’re letting on. Still, I continue to write this in Google docs and wish to express my hearty welcome to our new overlords.
Barb, meanwhile, made her first foray outside in a week, heading to the local flower nursery at 8am to be first in line. She got several trays of annuals for us to plant tomorrow, which was all well and good. She said that by 9am the line for the flower center was much longer and crazier. She also stopped at McDonalds for breakfast and Dunkin’ Donuts for some donuts to take to the guards at work where she headed next. She was much energized by being outdoors in the nice weather and being able to spend some money. I continue to work through our refrigerator stocked with leftover fried chicken and chinese food from various food runs in the past couple of days. Our social distancing discipline is crumbling. We are not alone.
I get the sense that as time stretches on, people are becoming increasingly willing to play a literal Game of Life with the virus. (I love the subheads on this game cover: “LIVE THE LIFE YOU WANT! Choose your path for a life of action, adventure, and unexpected surprises! It’s Your Choice!” Yep.) It seems especially true here in America where there’s a huge sentiment that no one can tell us what to do. It’s one of the most fundamental and maddening characteristics of our nation. We are going to live and die by that credo, willing to roll the dice, or spin the spinner, in this case. The big problem with this attitude is that by practicing it we are putting each other, especially our healthcare workers, lower income service workers and vulnerable seniors at greater risk. But on the other hand, no one wants to live in this level of isolation much longer. Spin that spinner.
May 5
Happy Cinco de Mayo! We’re in week 8.
Laurie forwarded a New Yorker article, “How Greenwich Republicans Learned to Love Trump”, which offers background on how a segment of the elite moneyed class made peace with Trump and may get him reelected. It’s a long, thoroughly researched piece by Evan Osnos, rich on description and name-dropping but I don’t think it captures a complete picture of how Republicans let Trump dominate the party. A good companion article, also from the New Yorker, is Jane Mayer’s “How Mitch McConnell Became Trump’s Enabler-in-Chief”. The combined articles make for depressingly illuminating reading, but then again they don’t really tell us anything we didn’t know…they artfully fill in the background of a more complete record of our sad times.
Along that line, I heartily recommend the Washington Post’s recent “34 Days of Pandemic: Inside Trump’s Desperate Attempts to Reopen America”. It recaps the last month of the pandemic, revealing little new but provides a great time capsule of just how maliciously ridiculous these days have been. I’m especially impressed with how everything touched or uttered by Jared Kushner is just blatantly wrong.
The news this week is focused on various halting attempts to reopen or “get back to normal”, supplemented by a leaked CDC document (also reinforced by a revised IHME model) that projects a new surge in cases and deaths later in May. The higher toll seems inevitable but states are forging ahead nonetheless. Trump just revised his public estimate of deaths to 100,000. It’s murderous malpractice. And by the way, we’ve already scooted past a quarter million deaths worldwide and 70,000 in the US.
Numbers:
Global cases: 3,580,000 Deaths: 252,000
USA cases: 1,210,000 Deaths: 70,000
Maryland cases: 26,400 Deaths: 1,216
New York cases: 319,000 Deaths: 19,400
Spain cases: 219,000 Deaths: 25,600
May 8
A couple of different thoughts today.
I had a glimmer of hope a few days ago that we were past the peak of the virus in Maryland and starting on the downslope. Gov. Hogan opened some limited outdoor activities like golf and boating and I began to think other restrictions might be lifted in another week or two, per the guidelines for two weeks of improving numbers. But today I read a concise Baltimore Sun summary of the state of the virus in Maryland and we are still definitely on the upslope of cases and deaths. The best that can be said is that the number of hospitalizations is down a tiny bit and have not swamped the system, but we are still within 10% of the high at nearly 1,700 occupied beds. We have flattened the curve enough to keep the banks from overflowing but the water is still rising.
Several other statistics from the article stand out and don’t seem to be sufficiently recognized. Nearly 60% of deaths in the state have been residents of long-term care facilities and nearly 90% of all victims were over the age of 60. I didn’t realize those rates were quite that high. It gives me a little more incentive to stay in.
Numbers:
Global cases: 3,850,000 Deaths: 270,000
USA cases: 1,290,000 Deaths: 76,500
Maryland cases: 29,400 Deaths: 1,400
New York cases: 327,000 Deaths: 20,800
Spain cases: 223,000 Deaths: 26,300
A different thread of thought: I’m beginning to wonder when and if some truly radical ideas of realignment and revolution will come to the fore. The thought started, oddly enough, after listening to a Fresh Air interview with restaurateur and chef Tom Colicchio. He proposed a reworking of the food chain to turn restaurants into baseline food distribution centers in emergencies. It’s one of those things that sounds crazy at first, but upon consideration it may make a whole lot of sense. What if restaurant carryout meals were subsidized so that everyone could be sure to get something while those that wanted something better could pay more. We could eliminate programs like SNAP, keep tons of people employed throughout the food chain, eliminate food insecurity and invigorate thousands of community support centers throughout the nation.
From there, my mind wandered to wondering whether Trump and the Republican goons might drive the US to the point of dissolution. What’s to keep California, Oregon and Washington from breaking off and forming their own progressive nation? Maybe certain northeast states might opt to break away or merge with Canada. Or some other larger coalitions of states form their own nations. Trump is forcing governors and states to think more for themselves; why not move toward a more radical de-Federalization? Fifty states can’t turn into fifty countries…not all are viable, but there could be a realignment and coalescing of progressive and conservative areas.
Imagine the appeal of building a nation built on truly progressive principles willing to experiment and support its citizens, and knowing the citizens are committed to the experiment. Green New Deal? Check. Universal Basic Income? Check. Universal health care? Alignment with other progressive nations and global concerns? Acceptance of diverse backgrounds and lifestyles? Check. Check. Check.
On the flip side, imagine the conservative appeal of creating more truly free and competitive (and white, face it…with some Hispanics to do the dirty work) states. Have at it boys. Let people vote with their feet.
Forty years ago how many foresaw the dissolution of the Soviet Union? Who thought it was even possible? The stresses and strains of this virus will exert themselves on our politics throughout the year. The appeal of Bernie Sanders’ revolution is still out there — Bernie was not a perfect messenger but seeds are there that might power a realignment. Biden won’t be able to unite all 50 states, but maybe enough good ideas surface to coalesce around a new vision for the country, continent and world. Maybe. Now I’m sounding like Sue. Warning, warning!
May 11
It’s Monday of week 9, though it’s getting hard to keep track of weeks at this point. I thought it was 10, but no, just 9. Many more to go, it seems.
The good news is we are still well and getting along OK. Last Thursday was our 37th anniversary which we celebrated by getting Canopy sandwiches for lunch and grilling brats for dinner. On Saturday, I did grocery shopping and got a bahn mi sandwich while Barb spent almost the whole day out at work, then dropping things off and chatting with Diana and then dropping off an office chair to Lynn. She (Barb) was invigorated. Also, Diana made some nice sewn masks for us, which was nice.
Sunday was Mother’s Day. Allie had already sent presents of nail polish and a springtime hat for Manny. He was not thrilled to be our little flower, but Barb was. Work friend Betsy Pelovitz came over to have lunch and a chat with Barb. I fixed a little lunch of leftover brats and grilled veggies with pasta that was pretty good while the ladies spent the afternoon together on the porch. Barb said it felt almost normal. We capped the day off with a nice chat with Allie and dinner of steak and rack of lamb from Grill 620, with enough left over for another meal or two.
So, in tangible ways we are settling into this version of normal. It’s not so bad for us. We’re getting out to pick up restaurant meals a little more frequently and starting to see people once in a while. Still, we stay home most of the time, try to stay isolated and healthy, and in general spend less on food, entertainment and travel than we would have otherwise. Neither of us particularly wants to live our lives this way; it’s tolerable but not hugely enjoyable.
Entertainment-wise, there’s still a regular flow of new material on Netflix and other TV which is helpful. I’ve recently binged the Mindy Kaling-produced series Never Have I Ever, Alice Wu’s The Half of It movie, Jerry Seinfeld’s new standup special, still finishing Schitt’s Creek, and lately spending Sundays on PBS with World on Fire and Baptiste, both of which are getting pretty grim.
Yesterday, while Betsy was here, I watched the Darrell Hammond documentary, Cracked Up. I didn’t know the extent of lifelong troubles endured by the longtime SNL comedian, most of which were rooted in painful childhood trauma at the hands of his mother. It made me think of Len and the possibility that much of her difficult lifetime could be traced back to some level of abuse from Dad and silence from Mom. It’s more than I know how to deal with, so I mostly choose not to deal with it. I wish her well but I’m not willing to help very much. I feel bad about it but not bad enough to actually reach out. It’s amazing how uncomfortable a little amateur psychoanalysis can make one feel.
Numbers:
Global cases: 4,130,000 Deaths: 283,000
USA cases: 1,370,000 Deaths: 80,500
Maryland cases: 29,400 Deaths: 1,680
New York cases: 335,000 Deaths: 21,500
Spain cases: 224,000 Deaths: 26,600
Turning back to the larger world, it becomes ever more evident that some nations, even Spain, are gaining reasonable control of the virus while the US continues to head in the wrong direction. Trump is still pushing to open more of the country’s businesses as outbreaks rise beyond New York and even inside the White House. There are warnings in the media not to normalize this level of death or accept how poorly the US is responding, but the White House and conservative echo chamber are pumping hard to get the economy going, slow the hemorrhaging of federal debt and just forge ahead knowing that tens of thousands will die each month. We’ve just crossed 80,000 deaths in the US which means we will likely have 100,000 by the end of May…with months and months more to go. It’s infuriating. But what about Trump hasn’t been infuriating? What are we going to do about it? Sit in our stew and bubble along, it seems. I am symptomatic of a nation that can’t quite get off its ass to do anything substantive about its larger problems. I’m not proud.
May 14
The press to “reopen” America speeds along, too quickly. Gov. Hogan yesterday announced that Maryland will move ahead tomorrow with opening businesses and manufacturing (but not restaurants, yet). Despite saying he would wait for 14 days of declining numbers (which we don’t have), he’s pushing ahead. His main rationale is that we’ve had about 10 days of small declines in the number of hospital beds occupied…but it has only come down about 10% from its peak last week. That doesn’t seem like enough. The new phrase, instead of “stay at home” is “safer at home”. It seems Howard County will take it a bit slower, but we wait for more local updates.
Ezra Klein at Vox wrote an excellent article summarizing the failings of the Trump administration throughout this crisis so far, “We don’t have a president, we don’t have a plan”. Having failed to initially contain the virus, the social distancing lockdown was an emergency pause to flatten the curve and give us time to marshall resources and prepare next steps. The nation sort of did its part, Trump squandered his, and has washed his hands (literally, no doubt) of responsibility. It’s appalling and should be criminal.
Leana Wen, the former Baltimore health commissioner and Planned Parenthood president who has been ubiquitous on TV (and oh by the way, just had a baby in the middle of all this), has a good opinion piece in today’s Washington Post, “We’re retreating to a new strategy on covid-19. Let’s call it what it is”. We’ve shifted from containing covid-19 to harm reduction. It speaks to the continued lack of leadership that we are just wandering into this new future having so far performed worse than any other nation and not likely to improve.
Numbers:
Global cases: 4,370,000 Deaths: 298,000
USA cases: 1,430,000 Deaths: 85,600
Maryland cases: 33,400 Deaths: 1,683
New York cases: 338,000 Deaths: 21,845
Spain cases: 229,500 Deaths: 27,300
It seems worth pausing to note that just six weeks ago we were approaching one million cases and 50,000 deaths worldwide. Our little state of Maryland now has double the number of cases and deaths as all of Japan. Singapore has more than 26,000 cases but only 21 deaths. Where will we be in another six weeks at the end of June? It seems like other countries are getting their caseloads under control; the US seems to be just giving up and making the choice to live with whatever level of death comes.
May 17
I came across several good articles, including a good graphical summary from the National Geographic showing Coronovirus in the U.S.: Where cases are growing and declining. This gives a nationwide summary and state-by-state daily cases (or deaths) that makes it clear that very few states meet the 14-day declining case criteria for reopening. This article/site is worth watching if the data is updated daily, especially over the next couple of weeks to see effects of loosening stay-at-home orders in various states.
A plan to stop the pandemic in the U.S. through concentrated testing, tracing and isolation is outlined in We could stop the pandemic by July 4 if the government took these steps. It proposes red, yellow and green zones that are close to the scale I cooked up on April 24. It seems eminently reasonable. So why aren’t we doing it?
Another article in today’s Washington Post gives as good an explanation as any: Widespread testing might not work in America. We love our ‘freedom’ too much. The author, Stanford professor Keith Humphries, is right to ask “What will we do when millions of Americans flatly refuse to be tested for the virus? What should we do if those who test positive deny reality and refuse to change their behavior? What if some governor in a state that refused Medicaid expansion…decides that test, trace and isolate is the next frontier of opposition to big government?” He concludes, “On balance, we probably will end up something like herd immunity-aspiring, light-touch Sweden, only without the benefit of guaranteed health care. This won’t be because we universally agreed to choose such a policy, but because we couldn’t universally agree — and never have — about fundamental issues surrounding politics and health.”
In the meantime, we will top 100,000 deaths in the U.S.before the end of May and face the prospect of another 100,000 or many more until a vaccine is developed and widely distributed sometime next year or beyond. It didn’t have to be this way. Many other countries, including Spain and even New York state show that the virus can be brought under control even after a widespread outbreak. The U.S. is hardly even trying anymore.
Numbers:
Global cases: 4,660,000 Deaths: 312,000
USA cases: 1,500,000 Deaths: 89,500
Maryland cases: 37,000 Deaths: 1,792
New York cases: 348,000 Deaths: 22,500
Spain cases: 231,000 Deaths: 27,650
May 21
Feels like time for an update. We’re in week 10, by the way. All 50 states are in some level of loosening restrictions, though only a handful have legitimately met the 2-week declining case load criteria. So far there hasn’t been a great uptick in cases but it may be starting to move in that direction; the rate of new cases has more or less plateaued in the US. Around the world, we’ve topped 5 million cases, with Brazil, Russia, India and Peru experiencing rapid growth lately. Globally, new cases are averaging more than 100,000 daily, a new high.
Numbers:
Global cases: 5,010,000 Deaths: 328,000
USA cases: 1,580,000 Deaths: 93,800
Maryland cases: 41,500 Deaths: 2,081
New York cases: 353,000 Deaths: 22,850
Spain cases: 232,500 Deaths: 27,888
As we get ready for the Memorial Day weekend, the major DC/Baltimore suburbs remain nominally locked down but the more rural areas of Maryland and DC have opened shops, beaches and some recreation. Virginia has opened restaurants for outdoor seating. There’s a noticeable increase in traffic even around our local roads. High school seniors are “graduating” which is mostly evident from them driving around recklessly in cars and trucks festooned with Class of 2020 decorations. Call it Death Wish 2020.
In family news, Allie has found an apartment in Boston. It’s a small one-bedroom/studio (they can’t quite decide which…it’s sort of both) in a very nice building, The Kensington. I helped find it based on the ridiculously good reviews it gets — ostensibly the highest rated apartment building in Boston for six years running. Allie has known people that lived there and knows that it’s nice. She felt it was out of her price range but we found this small studio for what seems to be a tolerable price given Boston’s perpetually overheated housing market. I mentioned it to her on Tuesday and 36 hours later she was approved for an apartment. The girl works fast. She will move in August. She and we are relieved to have her lined up to be in a nicer place for the next couple of years, especially since it looks like she will be working from home through the end of the year, at least.
I’m planning a big shopping trip today to Costco and the grocery store to get supplies for the holiday weekend. We’ll be cooking burgers, hot dogs and steaks on the grill for various meals over the next several days. Potato salad and baked beans are in the offing, as well. Some traditions die hard. We’re hoping the weather will be pleasant enough on Sunday or Monday for Barb to go to Dan and David’s pool for a while. She’s been invited and they promise to stay socially distant.
So, our local lives remain not too disrupted, though it would be nice to be able to eat at a restaurant and see more people. We remain inconvenienced, at worst. We don’t want it to get any worse. Two nights ago at 5am I awoke to hear Barb coughing. She said the evening before that she was either catching a cold or had bad allergies. We’re pretty sure it’s allergies, the pollen being at its springtime peak, but I couldn’t get back to sleep. My mind immediately raced to the conclusion that she had the virus. I don’t know how we would actually cope with one or both of us getting sick. Would I move myself upstairs to separate? Who would tend to who? If she actually succumbed, what would I do with my life? If I succumbed, what would she do and what should I try to get in order before that? Questions and anxieties rolled. I couldn’t get back to sleep. I got up, read some newspapers and Napoleon (we’re in the Russian campaign), neither of which did much to quell anxieties. Eventually she awoke and seemed fine. Later in the day I mowed the lawn, did my walk, got back to normal and had a good night’s sleep last night. And today I’m going shopping for the weekend. I guess that’s coping. Or whistling past the graveyard. Same difference.
May 25 – Memorial Day
Memorial Day 2020 brings us into week 11 of the pandemic. If we are all warriors, as the president once floated but hasn’t mentioned lately, then this is a day to remember the nearly 100,000 who have died in the US…but that’s not happening, at least not officially. Instead, it’s a weekend to test the limits of how many people can crowd together at beaches, pools and parties around the nation. And play golf, which Trump did on Saturday and Sunday at his Virginia club.
Numbers:
Global cases: 5,440,000 Deaths: 345,000
USA cases: 1,680,000 Deaths: 98,000
Maryland cases: 45,500 Deaths: 2,130
New York cases: 353,000 Deaths: 22,850
Spain cases: 235,800 Deaths: 28,750
The numbers are still quite grim. More than 100,000 new cases daily world wide, around 20,000 daily in the US and 1,000 in Maryland. About half of US states are seeing increases in case loads in the past 7 days and many more are plateaued; only a few are really coming down. There are some glimmers of hope locally as capacity for testing and contact tracing are ramping up. Several officials say we will have enough of both within the next 2-4 weeks to more confidently support less restrictions…though restrictions seem to be loosening in advance of that.
I suspect that locally things will improve through June and by July 4 we will be able to eat in restaurants and have small gatherings. I’m not sure when theaters and concerts might open in even a limited format. July 4 fireworks and festivities have already been cancelled in Columbia and Baltimore, and I imagine in DC though I can’t recall having seen an official announcement.
All that said, things will not be normal. Travel, tourism, restaurants and entertainment have taken a massive hit and will only return at minimal levels. I’m not sure of exact numbers, but if we assume 30% of the economy has been shut down, at best only about half of that will rebound quickly. We are looking at a loss of 10-15% of the economy (spending and jobs) for the better part of a year or more. That’s a very deep, prolonged recession, near Depression levels which will generate uncertain (but certainly dramatic) second order effects.
Our government, especially at the federal level, does not seem functional enough to provide a prolonged level of stimulus or comprehensive plans to help those in need. Even if we get a change in administration in November, it won’t take effect until January and then there will be more months of dickering, so we will be well into 2021 before we see more substantial levels of relief, if at all. By then, there may be a vaccine which would be an enormous boost…but that’s all wishful thinking at this point, not a plan. There’s a prolonged period of deep economic and social trauma to navigate between now and then, whether or not there’s another wave of the virus in the fall. And there’s an election with all the idiocy, division and malfeasance that will bring. Sorry for the bleak holiday outlook.
Closer to home, I spoke with Laurie on Friday; she was going to head up to Maggie’s in La Losa the next day to spend a week with them. Restrictions are lifting in Spain enough that most people can get out and about. Technically, Laurie is supposed to still stay isolated since she is high risk, but she and Maggie came to the conclusion that they can extend their quarantine together for a week. It will be the first Laurie has seen them since she came to the states in January. After the week, Laurie will return to her apartment and isolate while Maggie and the boys can start to see other friends. It seems a reasonable step. I hope they have a great time together.
Our weekend has been relatively quiet, though a little more active. I did my big Costco and grocery shopping on Thursday so our pantry and fridge are well stocked. I’ve been grilling various meats each night, even though the weather has been a bit cool and cloudy. Barb went into work for a bit on Saturday, but with the air conditioning turned off she didn’t stay long. Yesterday she went on a walk at Centennial Park with Leslie and Piper, which she seemed to enjoy. Today she’s decided to go over to Dan and David’s pool even though it’s overcast. So we’re getting out a little bit more and still managing to eat too much. We haven’t heard a whole lot from Allie but we suspect she’s doing OK. We send her cat pictures from time to time and she responds (Allie sent some new jingling collars for Manny, thanks very much).
So we muddle along. I’m financially prepared to stay more or less in this mode for another year. I know not many can say that. I shudder to think what will happen around this country and the world as the individual and family tragedies compound. My first instinct remains to protect our family as best as I’m able and hope the tragedies don’t strike too close. I know it’s a selfish response but I have a hard time getting beyond it. I know I could be helping others more both financially and with my own time and efforts, but it feels like every dollar that goes out diminishes my ability to protect ourselves and any activity that involves getting out and about increases my own risk of exposure. So I stay hunkered down, still doing the least I can do. Time to feed the cats and mow the lawn.
May 28
We passed 100,000 U.S. deaths yesterday, a very sad milestone. It’s a moment for reflection and a wish for a better path ahead. I’m still looking for an honest assessment of where we are headed as a nation and world.
Numbers:
Global cases: 5,930,000 Deaths: 358,000
USA cases: 1,750,000 Deaths: 102,000
Maryland cases: 45,500 Deaths: 2,130 (Google numbers unchanged)
New York cases: 360,000 Deaths: 23,383
Spain cases: 237,900 Deaths: 28,750 (Google says 27,119 today, less than a few days ago; something’s up)
I heard a radio news report yesterday that estimates of the actual death rate from the virus is settling into the range of 0.5 – 1% which is lower than the 3% estimate from a month or two ago but still at least 5 times more deadly than the seasonal flu. Even at the low end, I did the math and it translates into about a million US deaths by the time we reach 60% or so infection rate for the whole population over maybe the next several years. Finding and distributing a vaccine in the interim seems the only likely way to cut that number. If that’s going to be the case, we are owed a reasonable discussion of how to live our lives.
I made some speculations about a month ago, April 24, that seem to be holding up. So I’m willing to go a little further out on the limb. I’m guessing that over the next three months, June – August, we will get used to being a little more open, not quite as shut down. But not “normal” or maybe more accurately this will become something of a new normal. Shops and restaurants will open with limited capacity, businesses will try to break even but many small, independent shops and restaurants will have to close. Travel and entertainment will stay hard hit, barely recovering. Work-from-home will still be more common than going into offices, though some offices will open. The economy as a whole will rebound a little but people will come to realize that recovery will not be swift. Deflation and economic contraction will be a bigger worry and policy responses will be hard to come by. Home values and rentals will struggle, bankruptcies will rise. I don’t see how the stock market won’t fall substantially but it’s been floating upward for the past month or more. Virus cases and deaths will probably decline somewhat over these months but we’ll still likely hit 2.5 million cases and 150,000 deaths by Labor Day in the US, over 10 million cases and 500,000 deaths worldwide.
Within my bubble, I hope Allie might come down for a visit in late June or July for a week or so. She’s lining up to move into her new place after August 7. She will likely stay working from home for the rest of the year. Probably so will Barb, who may force us to shift her into her own work room upstairs (though I think the dining room is still the best place for her). Restaurants will open enough for us, so food and all will be fine. Vacation travel, however, is probably out. I’ve thought about maybe going to one of the hotels nearby, like maybe the Chesapeake Hyatt again, but I’m not at all sure that will work. Maybe Barb will work out a visit to Diana’s in Delaware. Or maybe we could do the Hampton Inn in Corolla again? It’d be nice but it seems a stretch. International travel is a no-go for the rest of this year, I’m afraid. I’m hoping it will be possible next year but even that’s only a wish. I’m not at all sure what Laurie will do (and neither is she). It would be nice to have her settle into Asheville, but there’s a lot of ground to cover before she gets there.
The wild card will be September and the fourth quarter. Will schools be fully back in session? Will there be a second wave of the virus? Will some areas/nations have to shut down again? And then there’s the election. The weeks between Labor Day and Election Day will be anxiety filled. After the election we will face a whole new environment, no matter the outcome.
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