Part two of my ongoing journal entries about life in the time of the 2020 Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic, with input from Laurie in Spain. Part One is here.
April 2, 2020
I’m taking it as good news that since we’ve been home more than two weeks, we can definitely say we didn’t get sick from our trip to Aruba. I’m also feeling more confident that our home itself is virus-free, so we can relax a bit on wiping with disinfectants and such, not that I was doing all that much disinfecting (I am pretty good about hand-washing, though). We’ll still be careful when we go out, but we go out much less frequently. In the past week I think I’ve done two or three grocery runs and got two meals from restaurants. We’re not exactly housebound, but certainly leaving much less, and I am feeling more comfortable staying here rather than going out. Barb gets a little stir-crazy now and then but has mostly settled into a working routine. It helped when we brought down a more comfortable office chair for her to sit in, rather than the dining room chairs. She has also finally started doing some stints on the treadmill instead of sitting and working 12+ hours a day.
Since instituting “stay at home” orders earlier this week, it seems Marylanders are taking the order to heart. Two days ago, when the weather was good, I took a walk in the neighborhood. For the 45 minute walk on the backstreets where I go, I encountered exactly three moving cars, and two of them were the same one, coming and going. I take that as a good sign. There has so far been little public pushback on the orders, at least little that I’ve seen. I have a feeling (but little real evidence) that we are pushing down our curve at least a bit here in Maryland, though numbers are certainly still going up rapidly.
Speaking of which, here are today’s numbers. It’s getting bad enough that it now matters what time of day you check. These are as of about 1pm today.
Global: 980,000 cases, 50,000 deaths
US: 226,000 cases, 5,775 deaths
Maryland: 2,300 cases, 36 deaths
New York: 92,000 cases, 2,723 deaths
Spain: 110,000 cases, 10,000 deaths
Gov. Cuomo is still talking about the crisis (cases? deaths?) peaking in 2-3 weeks in NY…call it mid-late April. Gov. Northam thinks Virginia will peak in May. I haven’t heard an authoritative guess for Maryland, but I’ll say May 1. Trump says something different every time he opens his mouth, so he doesn’t count anymore. There are more articles with evidence that social distancing is working in places like California and Washington. Hoping the same is true for Maryland. The rolling, staggered advance of the virus in different cities, states and countries is part of what makes it so hard to model. New York, however, is clearly at hospital capacity and just about at the tipping point of a catastrophe, if they haven’t gone over already. Places like New Orleans and Detroit are not far behind. There seems little question that the US will have the worst record of advanced nations responding to the virus. Thanks, Trump. The virus is also just starting to reach less advanced countries (and refugee camps). Fears are rising of a terrible toll to come, with little capacity for relief from more advanced countries.
April 6
We are into our fourth week of staying at home and social distancing. Fundamentally, we’re doing fine. Barb had a semblance of a real weekend, in that she wasn’t glued to her email or on conference calls nonstop. She had time to catch up with a few friends, watch some TV and work on a jigsaw puzzle. Nearly human. One of our friends, Leslie, even dropped by for about an hour of chatting at a social distance on our deck. I guess technically that violates Maryland’s stay at home order, but so far the thought police have not caught up with us. Anyway, it was Leslie that was breaking the law, we were merely abetting the crime.
Allie checked in from her apartment in Boston where she and Dan spent the weekend. We were happier she was there rather than at his parents’ house. They seem to be fine, as well. Dan had to put up with a weekend watching Harry Potter and the Disney movie, Onward (which Allie got us to watch, as well). Plus Allie’s cooking, though that seems to be improving quickly.
All that said, the impact of the virus is growing and its concentric circles of grief are getting closer. The mother of one of Allie’s college roommates has tested positive. Allie stayed with the family from time to time during their school years and is still in touch with the roommate, Maddie. Allie was shook by the diagnosis and tried to comfort Maddie. I just learned the brother of one of my (former) robotics colleagues (Angie Fontanilla) was one of the victims. I don’t want these circles to get any closer.
Our erstwhile leaders are saying that the next week or two will be the peak of the virus in the US and we will see “a lot of deaths”. Thanks for the guidance. I find it hard to believe this will be the peak, though it may be that New York will peak and that might mean the greatest numbers of absolute deaths (though even that I doubt). It seems obvious that the peaks will come at different times in different localities. Maryland will likely be later this month, Virginia early in May, etc.
Numbers:
Global cases: 1,290,000 Deaths: 70,000
USA cases: 338,000 Deaths: 10,000 (later today)
Maryland cases: 3,125 Deaths: 53
New York cases: 122,000 Deaths: 4,159
Spain cases: 135,000 Deaths: 13,000
By the end of this week, the US will likely have more than 20,000 deaths and will be the world leader. USA! USA!
I’m feeling a little bit more in control of our own situation. If we stay away from other people, wear masks and gloves on the few occasions we go out shopping or get food, and wash our hands a lot, we should be in pretty good shape. We have very little else that comes into the house from the outside. There’s mail and a daily newspaper but those don’t worry me too much. I’m taking walks almost daily, starting to do yard work, and actually feeling a little less creaky when I move around. Plus, springtime and the weather are getting very pretty. I hope this is not hubris or false optimism, but I feel like we can manage like this for an extended period of time. I continually recognize we’re in better shape than most.
At a more mundane level, my Billzpage editor is still giving me trouble. I’ve been on three extended tech support chat sessions with BlueHost people. We sometimes seem to make headway in this or that direction, but it still isn’t right. On Saturday, Allie wanted to show Dan the site but couldn’t access it. On Sunday we got a workaround but I don’t know if that worked for her. They suspect it might be a compatibility issue between the latest WordPress update, my particular blog template, and their server cache. Two technicians have said they are referring it to higher authorities and will let me know when it’s fixed. I’m still waiting. I can edit posts like this in Classic mode, but can’t get much done with images, which slows me down as I’m working on year 2000 photos.
Today’s update from Laurie:
Monday, 6 April 2020. Today is day 25 of lock down for me here in Spain (I started isolation 2 days before it was required, so I count a little bit more than the rest of the country). Looks like another 21 days ahead, minimum. April 26 is the new target date if the Prime Minister, Pedro Sanchez, gets it passed by Congress tomorrow, and no one foresees any hitches in that. The good news is that the overall infection and death rates have been slowing down over the past couple of days. On 2 April, the day when deaths reached their peak, 950 people died in Spain, and today that number dropped to 637, the lowest we have seen for two weeks. In the newspaper El Pais (English edition), they caution that the weekend rates may show lower numbers because a lot of the Spanish provinces haven’t had reporting capacity over the weekend. . .so numbers may spike on Tuesday. We shall watch and see, but in any case the numbers game is a notably imperfect one here because there has been a long and ugly struggle to get accurate testing, and the tests are still unavailable for many, if not most, of potential testing centers in Spain, from what I can understand.
The less good news is that here in Segovia we continue to see rising numbers. I am not sure why we would still be on this side of the curve, but if I understand the news correctly, our province is the one with the largest number of cases per population in the country and it’s not slowing down.So I continue in isolation, missing especially my intimate moments with little boys, who are apparently just thriving in this model of imposed confinement. Their creativity knows no bounds, and they are thrilled with having infinite time with each other and with the availability and attention of both parents. Nico misses school and his friends a bit, but staying home is heaven to Sam. He has spent a huge amount of time in the garden on survival adventures, exploratory expeditions, and now a mining operation. I wonder if the garden will ever recuperate from all this but I guess we are seeing that nature has its way of replenishing itself when it’s left to its own devices. Nico has had a tooth ache caused by a huge cavity in a molar, and initially Maggie thought that there were no dentists available to see emergency cases. But after some days of trying to manage the increasing pain, they were able to find an emergency at last, and Juan took him in today. The dentist cleaned the cavity out a bit, hoping that it would relieve the pain, and told them that the decay wasn’t yet near the nerve so it wasn’t necessary to do an emergency intervention and they should wait until the end of lock down. I am personally relieved to know that there was some professional availability, and evidently this dentist was doing emergency visits for kids on a voluntary basis. We have a lot of heroes to thank for offering such brave and necessary service during this crisis.
Here in my perch over the Parral (an ancient monastery here in Segovia, with its now-public green space), I continue to be fine, recognizing that it’s my personal imperative to keep extreme solitude from morphing into loneliness. I am less interested in the operas that the Met has presented this week so I am trying to seek out other interesting offerings to watch. For some reason my cable for the TV won’t work, so I can’t watch the news any more. I get most of my news from the internet anyway, so it’s no big loss and I don’t know what to do to get it fixed, so I leave it for now. I am surprised that I don’t much want to read. At other times I imagined that if I had infinite time alone, I would spend hours and hours reading novels, but that just hasn’t been the case. I paint a fair amount, do country line dancing 3-4 times a week because my teacher has been the most active presence on the internet. I try to do online yoga. I am taking an online class from Columbia University on the history of the women’s movement. I cook, I clean a little. I spend a lot of time keeping up contact with people, mostly via email but also by Zoom and whatsapp calls. I have wine chats on Zoom with a couple of Segovian friends every few evenings. I am very excited about an upcoming Zoom meeting with a group of about 10 friends from when I was in Brazil. Over the 15 years since I left Sao Paolo, we scattered all over the globe, but the Brazilian friend who kind of brought us all together then (and organized our moment of glory at carnaval) has set up this meeting. I can’t wait! This is such a good time for reconnecting with people, and I’m really grateful to this friend for organizing such a gathering. So I can keep positive concentrating on these things almost all of the time. Even so, I do have trouble sleeping, some nights a lot of trouble, going to bed at midnight but staying awake until as late as 8:30 in the morning. I have been in contact with a sleep therapist with hopes that I can get some help with this because lack of sleep really plays havoc on my ability to keep busy and positive. And I have some help in an app called Calm, that provides meditation sessions and bedtime stories that frequently help with getting to sleep. I use whatever I can get that helps!
I would love to be able to get out to La Losa eventually since Maggie and family are no longer quarantining themselves and I’m sure we would all be safe together. But the law here remains pretty strict, with police and civil guards monitoring movement, stopping cars, and even arresting people who don’t have an essential mission or seem to be going to stay in their second house away from the city. Apparently this is a problem for all places that have vacation populations, globally. . .especially for towns and villages where people have second homes.People in cities where the infection rates are high want to be in places that seem safer. But for the more rural places, new arrivals mean new exposures and also more pressure on more meager health systems. Some villages, mostly in the south of Spain, have even erected barriers against new arrivals. So for me, that means, I imagine, that I would need to get some special permission from the police if I wanted to drive my car out to La Losa, and I wouldn’t know how to go about that or if it is even possible. Given that I haven’t even been outside of my apartment complex in weeks, it would feel like a wild adventure to be in my car going anywhere!
The new question that people are starting to address here in Spain is, how will we begin to re-establish normal life once the crisis abates? Who will be required to stay isolated, who will be seen as safe to be in public spaces, which establishments will be encouraged to reopen? Etc. The newspapers are starting to pose these questions now as the curve starts to flatten. I imagine the authorities will be looking at China, Italy, etc., to see how their people fare as public spaces gradually return to some version of normal life. More on that to come. . .
Just after Laurie sent this update, Sue started another round of checkins from the family. Here are the results.
From Sue:
Greetings from North Carolina, where I’m holed up with Susanna and family. We have it so much better than many, with a comfortable home, family for entertainment, front and back yard for the kids, lots of supplies for creativity. The sidewalk chalk has been well-used for artwork and a driveway obstacle course. Amila had an all-day family birthday party (instead of the water park as planned) complete with a noisy and fun birthday parade through the neighborhood — safely distanced. She got the fish she’s been wanting so bad. She and Reef are great play buddies. It’s great to have Riad home. Our biggest downer was Lolly the sweet silly pup got bit by a neighbor dog and went to the vet for an overnight stay.
So how’s by everyone else? I hope you can each give a little report. I think it’s important to stay in touch as an extended family during this historic time. Please stay well!
Love to all, Sue
From Scott:
Here in Germany we are in week 3 or 4 (I’ve lost count) of our “social distancing”. They haven’t had a lock-down per se. They just said any gathering of more then 2 people is against the law. Exceptions are family members who live together. It means we can go out and even go shopping and do errands, etc. It’s just we ( the people) have to stay away from each other. Stores have all kinds of markings on the ground to help people keep distance. There are tons of sanitizer stations set up in most places too. Places of congregation are closed though, like most restaurants and bars. Only those that can provide take out are allowed to stay open.
The family here are currently all well for the most part. Carmen still has minor issues with her stomach/ pancreas, but it seems to be related to what she eats and it’s not bothering her too much. We haven’t been able to pin point the cause yet though. It’s her COPD that is worrying her more at the moment, and rightfully so. People with such illnesses are at more risk to get severely ill with the corona virus.
The good news is, in her natural compulsion to be helpful to others, Carmen started sewing some face masks together (“facies” as they call them here, because it’s actually against the law to produce medical supplies without a license). So, a layer said anyone can produce them, they just can’t be called “face masks”. She’s promised to make 10 for a friend of hers and she’s making some for Alex too, for his work. More on that below…
Luckily, my job was home office to begin with. So, nothing has changed for me there other than not being able to travel like I usually would be. The bummer is, my company is pulling the plug on the projects I am working on, with only one project looking like it might continue, but in a reduced fashion. I’m trying to take steps to make myself more valuable, as I can actually do the work our IT gives away to a bunch of Indians in India. It’s a waste of time using them anyway, as we have to spoon feed them with written information, so they can come up with half-way decent results, and even then, the results aren’t really good. Then we reiterate on that work, wash, rinse and repeat. It’s annoying, when the specification work takes longer than the work I know I could do directly in the system.
Alex is working his job still at the local DIY warehouse and isn’t happy about it. Despite the restrictions, some people are just ignorant and he’s getting fed up with having to be around people, who aren’t being careful. They even have security people at his work now. So, should he or any of the other salespeople feel “threatened” by the one or two idiots who don’t feel they should keep their distance (and yes, there are a few), he can call security. Imagine that.
The main thing I miss is getting out to see my friend and go flying. That was my “release” from the day-to-day. Now all I can do, like Bill, is some garden work, which isn’t a lot of fun for me. I also walk the dogs and help Carmen in the stall. So, a bit of exercise. ?
Other than that, I do work on my hobby of programming. But, at some point Carmen gets upset with me being on the computer too long. And she’s right. ?
Hope you all stay safe and healthy.
Love you all, Scott
From Len:
Hi, everybody – I have been happy to hear people from others in the family today. I have been hungry for family news, as I told Scott. I am still a little slow on my verbal expressions, but I will do my best here.
Am I the only family not hunkered at “stay home” yet? I am still working outside on my route every day, as the newspaper is an “essential”, they tell us. Most mornings, I am the only car on I-19 the whole way from Green Valley to Nogales. The traffic picks up on the way home later when rush time begins at 5 am or so, I wonder where all these early folks are rushing.
I have masks on order for me and have begun to work with gloves at all times. For my sake, I am greatly grateful to continue working every day outside. I don’t like my apartment and wouldn’t want to stay alone with my blind cat all the times (my poor little blind cat). And, of course, having an income is paramount to me these days.
I find the most depressing and inconveniences time come from trying to shop. The stores remind me of old photos of Russia after the revolution. I have begun shopping in Nogales lately. The border is closed, so much of the traffic that would normally come “over the side” is not there these days. In fact, Nogales looks like a ghost town much of the time.
One day at a time has never been so true. I am grateful for having Sirius XM in the car, although I find myself tuning into the news far much more than is sane. When I have the self-discipline to reach for the music, it is much better all the round for me.
Let’s keep doing these updates, please. I have been especially concerned for Laurie’s situation, so it has been good to hear of your “sanity projects” and continuing people projects while in lock-up, Laur. I would be going bonkers. Good for you for keeping it going it on. (Does that make any sense?)
With lots and lots of love to all from Len — and for Scott, Always — Mom
(And with my apologies for the continuing issues with stroke-ish, although I do think I am getting a little better all the time.)
From Jill:
Hola from Galapagos, Familia!
It’s so very nice to hear from all of you all over the world. What a spread-out bunch we are. I´m especially pleased to know everyone is healthy and comfortable and mostly happy with their situations. We too are perplexed and in shock about all of this but trying to use the ‘extra’ time in positive ways. We have been on official lock down since March 16th. No flights in or out of Galapagos except for a few humanitarian flights that we had to help a few clients get on.
We are hoping the tourist will come back soon but in the meantime the wildlife is enjoying some time off, I’m sure.
We are sharing our home with Javier’s brother and his wife who got an extended Galapagos vacation. They are from here but living in Quito as they study at the university (now online!). We also have a new friend from the States who came for a month and connected with us to help with our website in exchange for help with setting up tours during her time here. We are both getting a lot more than we expected out of the deal. She gets two months of full board and we get a shiny new updated website! It’s great for Elia and Maia (and us) to have more people to play with.
To stay productive we have been planting like crazy in our garden at home and on the farm. We have special permission as agriculturists to drive around and work on the farm and distribute goods. We’ve teamed up with some farmer friends and are distributing organic veggie baskets and donating the surplus to people in need. Priorities have shifted to the truly important things in life and it’s lovely.
We’ve also been making sourdough bread, kombucha, cooking wonderful meals (some delights from the garden already), cleaning the house, folding laundry (missing Gloria who used to help us with the house and the kids), enjoying fires in the evenings lately and watching movies when the internet is fast enough. Elia and Maia started painting Easter eggs today. 🙂
It’s nice to see Elia’s creativity and resilience shine through. She misses her friends but I thought it would be much harder on her not being able to get out and play. They were both sick with a common cold and Maia just got over a nastly little case of impetigo on her face. They never get sick but I think it’s like orcas in captivity with wilted dorsal fins but they are otherwise happy little creatures.
I had a zoom date with my sisters on Zoom that was lovely. Elia and Grandma Sue have connected a couple times since Elia got into folding origami. Elia wants to fold 1000 peace cranes before cuarenteen is over so her wish will come true (it’s a secret) after being inspired by Grandma Sue’s story of Sadako. Here it is if you haven’t heard it: Sadako Story.
We were supposed to be in the US right now for a wedding but here we are trapped on a rock in the middle of the Pacific Ocean but feeling fine.
Saludos, Jill
From Keri:
I sure enjoyed reading these updates. Thanks, Mom, for making the invitation. We are all content and enjoying the “quiet” time (it’s never quiet here). We were planning to be in Antigua, Guatemala for about 2 months with many of the same families we spent time with in Bali and were planning to leave right as all this was unfolding in the US, in mid-March. We were scheduled to leave March 22, and had a sense around the 12th that we might not have the option to enter Guatemala if we didn’t leave earlier, so we rebooked our flights for the 14th, packed up in two days and drive to Ft. Lauderdale where we made the decision from the hotel not to take the flight. A few days later, Guatemala did indeed close it’s borders, flights in and out stopped, and the Stone Soup gathering was cancelled altogether. It was a wild few days, and I expected to feel more disappointment, but mostly I think we are all quite happy to be home. We went straight into “shelter in place,” and have not been out aside from the two shopping trips since. I planted 20 fruit trees in the yard and Jon has been busily clearing out trails in the woods and a lovely sitting area under the bamboo, projects we’ve wanted to do since we moved in.
The kids are all spending days much as we always have, but without adventures out to play with friends, and without the agile learning community we hosted twice a week at our house. They are appreciating having four brothers in the family and, like Sam, are delighting in their own creative play. Jonah and Alden have also made connections through zoom with lots of friends through the Agile Learning Center offerings (centers around the country are collaborating to bring online offerings to all the learners who are now at home). There are enough options to make your head spin. The biggest hits so far are: Lego meetup, card throwing, filmmaking, and a partner acrobatics class. Jonah and Alden did a zoom book club with Amila and another friend this week, which they loved, and Jonah his participating in an apparently “epic” Dungeons and Dragons campaign with friends from all over. Aside from the online stuff, they spend hours every day on the trampoline, playing a card game I will never ever understand called “Magic the Gathering,” and are still going on adventures around the neighborhood to pick loquats and kumquats on the onewheels, which is quite a sight.
Jon has been working from home for several years, so it’s not a big disruption for his work. His clients have all been hit pretty hard and he offered to cancel his contract if anyone needed to in order to keep on other staff, but so far only one small client took him up on it, so it hasn’t impacted us much in that way, either. I got quite excited by the incredible deluge of fun offerings (for free!) and signed myself up for a slew of classes and then decided I actually didn’t want to feel busy and dropped most of them. I’ve spent lots of time in the hammock watching the kids on the trampoline and enjoying the spring (rapidly turning to summer here) weather. There are barred owls nesting in our yard and we have several gopher tortoises who are coming out more as the weather gets hot and who are like little cows chewing grass all day. They are very cute and I can’t believe how much I like to watch them. I’ve been really enjoying cooking. I’ve been writing poetry with a group of ladies from around the world and taking a fairly intensive coach training for the past year and am continuing with both of those. I’ve loved catching up with old friends far away like many of you.
So, all in all, I feel incredibly fortunate (and often a little guilty) to be enjoying this time so much. It’s really helped me see how much of the doing I was doing was because I thought I ‘should.” I’m interested to see what will happen when the quarantine is over. Thanks for sharing a little window into your lives. It’s a delight.
Warmly, Keri
April 7
There are tentative glimmers of optimism that key hotspots are having success with social distancing measures. Rates of deaths and new cases are declining in Italy and Spain, and may be starting to taper in New York. Stock markets rebounded yesterday and today, rising 10% to the neighborhood of 23,000 for the Dow. Dr. Birx and the Surgeon General are still saying that this week is crucial and may see the highest death totals in the US, but there is some hope that the nation may be able to keep overall totals below the estimates of 100,000 – 200,000 deaths.
In more troubling news, Japan is starting to see a more severe outbreak and is closing down major cities. Yesterday, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson went into intensive care due to his Covid-19 symptoms.
I, for one, have held off going to the store so far this week (it’s Tuesday, so the week is young; my last visit to a store was Friday…I’ve made it three full days!). And we just canceled this week’s scheduled house cleaning by the Maids. My valiant contributions to the cause. Barb went out today to see her oral surgeon for a routine follow up on her implant. So far, so good. Otherwise, we have meals planned for the next few days, the weather’s turning rainy and we should be able to stay in until the end of the week.
This evening came the news that John Prine passed away due to complications from the virus. It’s sad news but not unexpected. I’m glad to have spent time over the past few days writing an appreciation for him and creating YouTube and Apple Music playlists to bolster my memories.
April 11
I’ve had a bit of a hard time the past few days generating enthusiasm to write. There’s not been anything wrong, per se, other than what’s happening on the news. There’s just not a lot to report from our isolation other than that we continue to do reasonably well.
It’s a Saturday and Barb has gone into work once again for the morning, adding in stops at a grocery store and McDonald’s. She still prints things out to the network printers at work and goes in once a week to collect them, water plants, and steal a few things from the supply closet. This time she’s getting a couple of masks to send to Allie. Barb is also making a few bandana masks using hair scrunchies. We will mail them to Allie on Monday.
While Barb was gone, I had a good, long talk with Laurie, getting an update from her. Things are looking up, slightly, in Spain. It’s not going to change her situation immediately but at least there’s some reason for optimism. Maggie and her boys also seem to be weathering the pandemic well. Laurie says they’ve been very creative out there in La Losa, including contributing to the local array of art reproductions. Here is Nico as Rosso Fiorentino’s Angel. I suggested they should collect all the La Losa reproductions in one place so they can get some credit. Until then, I guess I can be a repository.
Here is what I’ve received from Laurie so far.
“The Grape Harvest or Autumn“, Goya 
“Cat with a Pearl Earring”, with apologies to Vermeer 
“Saturn Devouring His Son“, Goya 
(I don’t know this one)
“The Two Fridas” by Frida Kahlo.
I initially thought this was Picasso, but now I don’t think so and I can’t make out the signature. The photo reproduction, done with chalk makeup, is quite excellent, I think.
Laurie’s favorite so far has been this take on Las Meninas by Velazquez.
I also had a short talk with Betsy. They’re also doing pretty well. Betsy, Joe and Kristin are all working from home. Sara’s in her own apartment with Tyler. The big topic of concern seems to be whether Joe can play golf under stay-at-home guidelines. Courses there are open but Sara won’t let him.
Yesterday, I went grocery shopping at Costco and Giant. Costco had a short wait to get inside as they regulated the number of shoppers, but inside was pretty much business as usual. There was still no toilet paper, but they had most everything else. Giant was easier to get in and started one-way aisles to keep shoppers spread out.
The virus is still peaking in the US but this week there’s been a tentative feeling that we are starting to bend the curve. The rate of new infections is slowing slightly, even as deaths are mounting. That said, today the USA became the nation with the largest number of deaths (20,000) and topped 500,000 cases. There’s a realization as well that the number of cases is low due to lack of testing and the number of deaths is low because it doesn’t include many people dying at home without specifically being diagnosed with Covid-19. Also of concern, Maryland and the DC region started to spike this week, more than doubling in less than five days. And some 16 million Americans have filed for unemployment in the last three weeks. Trump is making noises about “opening the country” on May 1; most reasonable minds think that’s too soon. We’ll see what he says in another couple of weeks.
Numbers:
Global cases: 1,725,000 Deaths: 105,000
USA cases: 507,000 Deaths: 20,000 (later today)
Maryland cases: 6,185 Deaths: 138
New York cases: 160,000 Deaths: 7,000
Spain cases: 162,000 Deaths: 16,500
April 14
It was a month ago yesterday that we met Jenny and Yonie for dinner in Aruba. At that time, Yonie said the virus would likely not peak in the US for another 6-8 weeks, with another 6-8 week downslope on the other side. Tens of millions would get infected though many might not even notice, a million or more might die in the US.
There’s a sense today that, in fact, we hit the peak number of daily deaths in the USA a few days ago when it topped 2,000. That number has declined for three days straight to around 1,500, and the daily number of new cases has also declined for several days. It becomes clearer day by day that the mitigation efforts in the US and worldwide are having a positive effect on the spread of the virus. China, Italy and Spain are clearly on the downslope of the outbreak. Congratulations to the human race on cooperating enough to slow the spread of the virus and prevent millions more from dying. I think it’s reasonable to say that at this point we have had some level of success in flattening the curve and staying below the worst of the projections for the virus, even though more than 120,000 have died.
Numbers:
Global cases: 1,931,000 Deaths: 121,000
USA cases: 587,000 Deaths: 23,600
Maryland cases: 8,225 Deaths: 235
New York cases: 195,000 Deaths: 10,000
Spain cases: 173,000 Deaths: 18,150
That said, the economic impact of shutting down much of the world’s economy for at minimum several months is showing real effects. Tens of millions are suddenly unemployed in the US alone, and the global economy is contracting at a rate comparable to the Great Depression.
Conversation in the countries with early outbreaks are shifting to when and how to reopen businesses, schools, etc. and start to “get back to normal”. These are proving to be complicated debates, not least in the US where Trump is continuing his narcissistic ways. It seems pretty clear that (despite Trump’s wishes), Barb and millions of teleworkers and students will be working from home for at least another month or two. It may be longer before crowds can gather at restaurants and bars, much less sporting events and concerts.
Meanwhile, the world may merely be in a lull as the virus spreads in poorer, densely populated regions like India and Africa. If any of those regions hit exponential rates, the toll will be enormous, the likelihood of a resurgence in advanced countries will rise, and we all may be in for extended lockdowns. It will behoove all the world to keep that from happening, but I doubt that China, the USA or Europe will be able to devote enough resources to prevent it. Time, unfortunately, will tell. The virus, as they say, gets a vote. Sorry to lapse into cliche, but that’s what I’ve got at the moment.
April 17
The virus marches on, numbers getting worse and worse. There are horrific stories left and right, particularly regarding deaths in nursing homes. There was a story in the Baltimore Sun about a nurse and her son that I found particularly affecting. Each death is a tragedy, but some stories strike a deeper chord, especially if they are well told. Here was a feisty unwed mother of three who got a nursing degree when she was 50. Her son became a nurse as well and had to watch his mother succumb within a matter of days. These human, individual stories are necessary to put a face on the suffering; it makes the situation harder to take which is fully appropriate. It makes the numbers more meaningful, not simply a statistics game that I can’t stop playing.
The numbers themselves seem to be getting less and less meaningful, which is dismaying enough on its own, because the underlying data keeps shifting. Death counts spike as different jurisdictions start to include non-hospital deaths; there was a spike of over 4,000 deaths in the US yesterday, at least partly due to changes in reporting methods. Case counts are known to be distorted by the lack of available testing, but no one knows by how much. Nevertheless, I keep playing.
Numbers:
Global cases: 2,200,000 Deaths: 150,000
USA cases: 660,000 Deaths: 29,000
Maryland cases: 10,784 Deaths: 319
New York cases: 218,000 Deaths: 10,900
Spain cases: 188,000 Deaths: 19,500
Notable conclusions are that areas like New York and Spain seem to be topping out in terms of cases and deaths, which is something close to good news. Maryland and the DC region are spiking, as was anticipated a few weeks after New York, but so far there is still hospital capacity. Overall, US daily case counts are just starting to maybe decline while deaths are still growing; it makes Trump’s eagerness to “reopen” the country especially questionable, but he’s forging ahead while leaving the hard decisions to governors and local officials.
Meanwhile, today Sue sent me an email with a link to this article in Kosmos (a publication I’d never heard of). Her email, under the title “How does this one strike you?”, in its entirety read: “It speaks clearly to me and makes sense of what’s happening. How about you?” I had to forward it to Laurie for a hint on how to respond and found that Sue had also sent it to her and presumably others. After trying to read the article for the 4th or 5th time, I started to see the bits that probably appeal to Sue about coming through the virus with fundamental changes to the globalized system. But oy, what a lot of gobbledegook. I wasn’t sure how to write a nice response to Sue. So I didn’t. I’m pretty sure that wasn’t the right thing to do, either.
April 20
It’s Monday, starting our 6th week of isolation. We remain healthy and had another reasonably quiet weekend. I actually went out twice, once on Saturday to the bank and to pick up dinner at Facci, and then again on Sunday for grocery shopping and I couldn’t resist getting a steak and cheese lunch from Roma’s. I felt guilty getting the lunch and not combining the shopping with the dinner run, but like everyone we’re tired of being cooped up.
The mixed signals coming out of Trump and the right wing loonies are not helping matters at all. Calls to open up the country are rising as are protests at various state capitols, promoted by Trump and various oddball conservative groups reminiscent of the Tea Party but not going by that name. Beaches partially reopened in Florida and the Texas governor started lifting restrictions this weekend. This is happening as deaths continue to run at more than 2,000 per day in the US, more than 17,000 deaths and 180,000 new cases in the last week. Cases are spiking in Maryland and the DMV (DC, MD, VA), too. Local leaders make it clear that now is not the time to lift restrictions and much more testing is needed, but you can tell there’s a pent-up desire to get out and about. And Trump can’t resist fanning the flames to get on that side of the movement.
Numbers:
Global cases: 2,400,000 Deaths: 166,000
USA cases: 773,000 Deaths: 41,000
Maryland cases: 12,830 Deaths: 486
New York cases: 242,000 Deaths: 13,900
Spain cases: 200,000 Deaths: 20,800
Inside our cocoon, Barb had her first video conference today, not by Zoom but a Microsoft app for work. She put on a shirt and sweater for the occasion, which she mentioned at least four times during the call. We’ll see whether video calls become a trend for Barb; so far we have successfully resisted except for occasional Facetimes with Allie. That said, Barb seems more agitated with work stuff today than she’s been in a while. Hope that’s not a trend.
I’ve been plugging away with writing, getting our 2000 Disney trip documented and working through the box of 2000 photos. I’m also working through 1975-1976 Cultural Memories and then last night, to balance out my John Prine binge, did a plunge into Richard Thompson. I started a YouTube playlist and feel the need to write an appreciation page for him, not that he’s dying (hopefully), though he did just celebrate his 70th birthday. I discovered a couple of wonderful recent live streams (Number 1, Number 2) he did in the past few weeks, basically intimate concerts from his couch in New Jersey (I didn’t know he lived in NJ). I listened to the first one this morning and loved it. I found a number of other full concerts and interviews that I’ll make my way through. More to do!
I decided today was the day to make my BillzDaze page live and start to post things in the real world. I’ve been torn lately because my focus on restaurants and travels seemed irrelevant given the virus, but I’m starting to think it can still be a good outlet. Plus, I can do more with music. Something else to keep me busy.
April 24
It’s Friday, the end of week 6 here in Maryland. I’m coming to what I think is a realistic picture of our lives for the next couple of years. Despite everyone’s fervent wish to “return to normal” within a few more weeks, we are more likely to slide into a new reality of living with the virus around us for a long time. That doesn’t necessarily mean full social distancing and stay-at-home orders we’ve been operating under for the past six weeks, but we need to develop a sliding scale of response postures for ourselves and for our cities, states, regions and countries.
The White House published its guidelines last week and they’re actually somewhat reasonable. But given the mixed messaging that comes out of Trump’s mouth and general lack of trust, they’re hardly being considered. Plus, the guidelines are predictably fuzzy and open to interpretation, it seems. States like Georgia, Florida and Texas are forging ahead with “Phase One” openings without passing through the initial “gating criteria” which basically calls for a track record of declining case loads for at least two weeks plus “robust testing” for healthcare workers. It appears Gov. Hogan of Maryland will announce his own set of state guidelines today or very soon. Maybe they will be clearer.
I think we need something like regional hurricane warning or fire safety scales that can be widely understood and communicated. Something like a Red Zone where outbreaks are rising or plateaued at a high level and everyone should adhere to a high level social distancing like we’ve been doing lately: no non-essential businesses or trips outside the house. A region stays in the Red Zone until it shows at least two weeks (I like three weeks, it seems like a higher confidence level) of consistent declining case numbers like the federal gating criteria. Orange is for when a region is in the early decline phase and the region can engage in Phase One activities from the guidelines; a region stays Orange until it shows three additional weeks of declining cases; it goes back to Red if it sees one week of increasing cases. Yellow would be a looser set of social distancing and economic activity, equivalent to Phase Two of the federal guidelines. Green would be equal to Phase Three activities, with equivalent three week down or one week up gating. To smooth out reporting anomalies, the gating should use a running 4-7-day moving average. Regions should be clearly identified, warning levels and case load charts should be widely available. And, of course, testing should be more widely available and reliably reported.
Later note: The New Zealand alert levels seem to be a good guide. They are just recently stepping down from Level 4 which was more strict than anything we’re doing in the States, to Level 3 which is more or less analogous to what we’re doing now.
With that in mind, Maryland is clearly still in the Red Zone. Cases are rising by nearly 1,000 per day. Therefore, we know that we are in this high level of lockdown for at least another three weeks. Places like New York or, for that matter, Spain and Italy, are counting the days and weeks of declining case numbers and may be on the verge of entering the Orange level where they will be for at least another three weeks.
Number-wise, it also means the real focus should be on the daily number of cases. The number of deaths, while emphatic and the real bottom line, are not really the gating factor for decision making (that would change somewhat if we had reliable treatments for the disease to reduce the mortality rate). The cumulative numbers I’ve been tracking, and which are most often shown, are not really the most relevant picture….but I’m going to keep using them because it’s what I’ve been doing and the other data are harder to show.
Numbers:
Global cases: 2,750,000 Deaths: 192,000
USA cases: 891,000 Deaths: 50,000
Maryland cases: 14,000 Deaths: 584
New York cases: 263,000 Deaths: 15,700
Spain cases: 22,000 Deaths: 22,500
Looking again at the federal guidelines, we need a clearer definition of “vulnerable individuals”. Am I elderly? Does my level of obesity (what I consider to be a tolerable level, though I don’t know if I’m class 1, 2 or 3 of obesity) mean that I’m automatically vulnerable? Does that mean ⅓ of the US population is as well? Is a vulnerable person condemned to shelter in place until we get to Green status…which may not be until next year? Does sleep apnea make me vulnerable? What about Barb? What about each of the people that work for Barb, etc.?
It would be ideal if the WHO or some other international body would adopt a common set of guidelines so we can compare countries around the world and know where hot spots exist. If some local governor or leader decides to push the envelope and jump ahead in economic activities, at least people would know and could adjust their own behavior according to broader, clearly delineated guidelines. Having such guidelines in place and understood will also help prepare for the next pandemic down the road.
Such guidelines would make life easier to plan for the coming months and years. We in Maryland will be in the Red-Orange levels for the next several months, and if we’re lucky, Yellow or Green for several more months after that. More likely, we will see-saw between levels for quite a number of months, well into 2021. The situation will continue until we have a vaccine and can get a high proportion of the world population vaccinated…which realistically will take several years.
The whole point of this discussion was to help arrive at a clearer vision for the near future for making decisions. I think Barb will continue working mostly at home for many months, though some of her colleagues may start to go back to the office within another month or two. If they do, then Barb will probably go in some of the time but not every day, I’m guessing.
Allie will also probably be able to go back to the office to work by June or July, but the potential for having to work from home will continue for much longer. She (and we) has just decided not to renew her lease and we are happy to help her get into a nicer apartment in Boston for the coming several years. She should be able to effectively shop and select an apartment in May-June and move in August.
Allie will be able to travel here sooner than we can go to Boston. It remains to be seen if we are needed for that apartment selection process; probably that can all be done remotely even if we have to co-sign for something. I think it’s diminishingly likely we will all be able to go to Punta Cana for the All The Best Festival in November, but the Festival organizers will have the most to say about whether that vacation remains on the calendar.
Laurie will probably be able to get out and about in a limited manner within another month or so, but it is hard to say when she can reasonably plan a trip back to the states. Maybe by fall? If she comes back to Asheville for an extended stay, will she be able to easily get back into Spain? Will she be able to hop around the rest of the country as she’s been doing? Likewise, it’s hard to envision me going to Spain during this summer. More likely next year. Sigh. It’s hard to envision any travel vacation for us this year, other than maybe going to Boston to see Allie at some point in the fall. Double sigh.
More broadly, what does this mean for the larger economy and population? More than 25 million have filed for unemployment in the US within that last month, and the true number of unemployed is much higher. Many, if not most, will likely stay unemployed while we’re in Red-Orange levels. As we move to Yellow and Green, millions will get jobs but probably not at the income level they had. Restaurants, for example, may be able to open in a limited manner with distancing, call it half-speed, in another couple of months. But if we and other older, fatter people are considered vulnerable, then we would still be doing takeout. That’s a long way from a full recovery. Economies of this country and the world will be throttled down for the rest of this year and into 2021. The recovery will not be a quick V.
Trump is unlikely to get re-elected (I can say with fervent hope and some level of confidence) but the Democrats have a long way to go to put forward a plan for governing that can potentially lead to a true blue wave to give them the House and the Senate. If they can get both houses of Congress in sufficient quantities, they have a chance of getting the nation on a more progressive course. More likely, however, there will be enough recalcitrant Republicans to gum up the works and suddenly become huge deficit hawks once again. Structural problems in Washington and the country will not be wiped away by the virus.
April 27
Entering week 7 of isolation with a couple of thoughts.
Maryland’s Governor Hogan seems to be doing a credible job responding to the virus. He’s saying the right things and his plan to reopen the state looks similar to the method I suggested a few days ago. That said, cases are still spiking in Maryland, with the highest daily total (more than 800) on Saturday. Cases are disproportionately coming from Prince George’s and Baltimore counties which are the two counties with the highest proportion of black and brown populations. Others are raising the question of why that’s happening and there are no clear answers. My question is whether there is more Hogan and the state can do to focus resources on these communities. As a centrist Republican, Hogan walks a line of trying to govern for all of Maryland and generally gets high marks, but his record within minority communities is spottier (thinking of the Freddie Gray riots in Baltimore, in particular). I’m not sure when he’s up for re-election; at the moment he’d probably win overwhelmingly but his performance has some holes. He has never been strong on addressing endemic and persistent inequalities in the state.
He’s doing far better than Trump, of course, which is not saying a whole lot. Just a week or so ago, Trump was congratulating himself for keeping the US death total “low” when some models predicted a top of around 60,000. Today we’re above 54,000 and on track to hit 60k by May 1. How’s that working out for you? The US has quantitatively had the world’s worst response to the virus. It’s not 100% Trump’s fault but he bears an outsize responsibility. Everyone seems to see it but himself, and maybe Jared.
Numbers:
Global cases: 3,000,000 Deaths: 207,000
USA cases: 986,000 Deaths: 55,500
Maryland cases: 18,000 Deaths: 800
New York cases: 282,000 Deaths: 16,600
Spain cases: 22,000 Deaths: 22,500
Worth noting: it took four months (to early April) to reach the first million global cases and 50,000 deaths, about two weeks for the second million and another 70,000 deaths, and now less than two weeks to reach three million cases and more than 200,000 deaths.
There’s no good estimate for the number of actual cases of infection in the total population, but let’s generously say it’s 20x the number of reported cases. That means upwards of 60 million people may have already been exposed to the virus. That’s still less than 1% of the total global population. Does that mean we can still expect to see 40-60 times the number of cases before the virus reaches enough of the global population to reach “herd immunity” if there’s no vaccine? Would that mean more than 8,000,000 deaths? Over what period of time?
On the other hand, if we’re really in the early stages of the virus’ overall spread, how do we account for there being “no new cases” in places like China, Australia, New Zealand and low incremental counts even in countries like Italy and Spain? Can the virus really be so effectively contained and/or run its course? Why hasn’t it impacted China and India more dramatically? China’s response was certainly draconian and its reported numbers are probably artificially low, but it doesn’t seem to have been as bad as the US, for example. And what about India? There’s a lot we still don’t know about this virus and its course; it seems like we should know more by now.
As a thought experiment, what if Hillary Clinton had been elected in 2016? The virus still would have come and would likely still have become a global pandemic. The US response would likely have been much more proactive and effective. Nevertheless, even if death counts, economic impact and unemployment rates were lower by a factor of 10, she would still be pilloried by Trump’s zombie armies of the right (oh, they’d still be out there as a vigorous opposition) and Trump would probably get elected in 2020. That’s not to say that it wouldn’t have mattered — tens of thousands of Americans would have lived longer and their families spared mountains of grief — but we still would have likely faced a delayed purgatory of a different Trump presidency. Or maybe the Republican party would have avoided a complete takeover by Trump and instead we’d have a Ted Cruz candidacy in 2020. Either way, Hillary probably loses because people died and the economy tanked. The grapes were sour, anyway.
Related Post: Coronavirus Journey, Part 3
Related Post: Coronavirus Journey, Part 1
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