Part fourteen of my ongoing journal entries about life in the time of the 2020-2021 Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic. Previous posts: Part One (Jan-Mar, 2020). Part Two (April 2020). Part Three (May 2020). Part Four (June 2020). Part Five (July 2020). Part Six (August 2020). Part Seven (September 2020). Part Eight (October 2020). Part Nine (November 2020). Part Ten (December 2020). Part Eleven (January 2021). Part Twelve (February 2021). Part Thirteen (March 2021).
April 2, 2021
A new day, a new month, a new quarter.
Spring is trying to spring but we’re having another cold snap, with freezing temperatures last night and even a snow flurry yesterday. But our daffodils are out, the redbuds and cherry trees in our yard are getting ready to pop and the weeds are emerging all over our flower beds. My lawn service folks didn’t make it here this week to mulch, but next week for sure…which is what they said last week. First world problems.
I think we sorted out Sue’s financial/investment questions. Sue’s house sold as is (meaning she doesn’t have to put more money into repairs) on its first day of listing at full asking price. Closing is set for the end of April. Sue, Jon and I had a call on Tuesday with my Schwab advisor, Melissa, who helped walk through different alternatives. Yesterday, we reconvened without Melissa to confirm Sue’s anticipated expenses and make sure we’re all on the same page. Sue will open a Schwab account and invest the proceeds into a handful of ETFs that I recommended, per Melissa’s allocation recommendation. For the record, here is the email I sent to Sue…I’m kind of proud of it. I hope the recommendations hold up over time.
Hi Sue and Jon,
Based on our discussion with Melissa, we’re going to identify a target portfolio of socially conscious Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) for Sue to invest the proceeds from her house. Socially Responsible Investing is closely related to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) investing (more).
The portfolio mix recommended by Melissa was:
60% Bond
– 50% Intermediate Income Bonds or TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities)
– 10% Hi Yield Bonds
40% Equities/Stocks
– 20% Large Cap
– 10% International
– 5% Small-Mid Cap
– 5% Emerging Markets
Using the 4% rule of thumb for retirement investing (which is not perfect but a decent starting point), and a base investment of $150,000, Sue can withdraw $500 monthly or $6,000 annually. My own suggestion on top of Melissa’s suggested mix is that we initially keep two year’s worth of funds, nominally $12,000, in cash (or money market fund) to start. This will be the bucket that Sue withdraws from on a monthly basis for the first couple of years. My suggestion (to be confirmed once Sue figures her own expense needs) is to set up a monthly withdrawal of $400 ($4,800 annually) which will leave a cushion of $1,200 for extraordinary expenses each year.
Here are my suggestions for specific investments:
NuShares ESG U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NUBD)
iShares ESG Aware U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (EAGG) — My choice 40%
iShares Global Green Bond ETF (BGRN)
iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP) — My choice 10%
iShares ESG Advanced High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYXF) — My choice 10%
Nuveen ESG High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NUHY)
Socially Responsible Equity Funds
Large Cap
iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA ETF (ESGU) — My choice 20%
Xtrackers S&P 500 ESG ETF (SNPE)
International
Vanguard ESG International Stock ETF(VSGX)
iShares MSCI ACWI Low Carbon Target ETF (CRBN) — My choice 10%
Small-Mid Cap
iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF (ESML)
iShares ESG Screened S&P Mid-Cap ETF (XJH)
Emerging Markets
iShares ESG Advanced MSCI EM ETF (EMXF)
Xtrackers MSCI Emerging Markets ESG Leaders Equity ETF (EMSG) – My choice 10%
Next Steps (pending our discussion later this week):
1. Sue needs to set up a Schwab investment account and add power of attorney for Keri so she and Jon can get account visibility and access. I’ll check into maybe adding Keri as co-owner (may be gift tax issue; I have to investigate).
2. Confirm Sue’s expense needs and withdrawal amount target ($400 monthly)
3. When house sale is complete, transfer funds into Schwab account.
4. Purchase funds according to allocation recommendation
5. Set up monthly withdrawal schedule
6. After the first year we’ll assess the income/dividends generated by this mix and figure out what to adjust to maintain about a 12-18 month cash pool for withdrawals.
See…easy! Let’s talk on Thursday and see where we are.
Thanks,
Bill
I’m pushing along in Billzpage, adding our 2006 trip to Greece and a post for the first half of 2006. Now that I’ve gotten to the point where my photos are all digitized, I can load photos directly into WordPress from Google Photos, which saves a cumbersome step of downloading. The downside is there are a lot more photos to deal with and it still takes me quite a while to stitch together any thread of storyline from cluster to cluster. The project is still going to take me years to catch up to the present day.
I’ve started on a post called “Family Matters” to try to capture the evolution of my thoughts on family. It’s the first of a new page/section called “Lessons” but I’m keeping it private until I get more comfortable with it. And I’ve started to tackle the Goodloe Genealogy book that I finally found sitting on our shelf. There’s a whole bundle of information to unpack. Evidently, the Goodloes migrated to Virginia very early in the 1600s, not long after Virginia was established as a colony. The bloodline goes back to a specific town (and churchyard) in northeast England and very likely to Viking/Danish blood before that. We’ve got at least one Revolutionary War officer in our direct line, but evidently not Civil War (the relevant Goodloe was a minister and I don’t think fought). But there were definitely slave holdings and quite extensive land holdings in Virginia in the 17th-18th centuries. There’s even an old homestead in Spotsylvania County, Virginia that I might try to search out.
Allie caught a flight yesterday to San Diego to spend the week with her buddies, Vika and Jeff, in Palm Springs. She seems to have arrived safely; we hope she has a fun and safe time in the sun. Barb and I have lined up a trip to Boston to see Allie on May 20-24. We will drive up and stay in a guest apartment in her building. We’re looking forward to it. We also lined up a dinner with the Harders at a new restaurant in Baltimore, Cindy Lou’s Fish House, on May 15. We get our second dose of vaccines on April 11 and should be all immune by then. Life is starting anew.
Meanwhile, the virus is not letting up so easily. Cases have risen locally and around the country, up about 25% in the past 2-3 weeks, not coincidentally since restrictions were lifted and the new variants started taking hold. Things are considerably worse in Europe and Brazil. A fourth wave is emerging and while it’s not quite as deadly it still threatens to kill thousands and stall economic recoveries. Over 100 million in the U.S. or nearly ⅓ of the population have at least their first shot which is pretty good; most states are opening to all over 18 later in April.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 130,000,000; Daily average: 586K; Total Deaths: 2,830,000
- USA cases: 30,600,000; Daily average: 66K; Total Deaths: 553,000
- Maryland cases: 413,000 Deaths: 8,303; “At risk of outbreak” per CovidActNow.org
- 1 state “On track to contain COVID” (Northern Marianas)
- 12 states “Slow disease growth” (Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Louisiana, Oklahoma…)
- 29 states “At risk of outbreak” (Florida, West Virginia, Alaska, South Dakota, Colorado…)
- 11 states “Active or imminent outbreak” (Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island…)
- 0 states “Severe outbreak”
Maryland is moving in the wrong direction but nevertheless I’ve committed to starting indoor tennis again next week. I’m having second thoughts but hope that my initial vaccine shot will offer sufficient protection. I realize that our little family pod is starting to push our luck with tennis and travel this month but here we are doing it anyway.
I was pleased to see the article “The Unmitigated Chaos of America’s Attempt at Color-Coded Covid Guidance” in today’s NY Times. I think it’s long overdue. For more than a year I’ve felt that we needed a single national and international color guide to the outbreak, something everyone could understand. The article itself doesn’t go nearly far enough in recommending a solution but at least it pokes at the problem.
While Barb was at work yesterday and last night, I indulged in three depressingly worrisome documentaries. The first two were from David Attenborough on PBS, one on extinction and the other on climate change. The third was on HBO called “The Last Cruise” about the Diamond Princess which had the first big outbreak of Covid outside of China. Each was quite good in its own way, but they all point to the hubris of men and mankind, a hubris I’m afraid my whole life, this journal and website reflect.
We’ve seen what’s been going wrong for decades, our whole lives. We’ve made tiny, insignificant steps to deal with the various crises and assuage our conscious while continuing to indulge in the overall behaviors we deplore. It was the least we could do. Just like I know eating better, drinking less and exercising more would improve my bloated health, I know that eating less meat, more locally grown vegetables, relying less on heating and air conditioning, traveling less, reducing consumption and being more politically and socially active would aid the planet. But I can’t quite work up the will to do much more than lip service to these loftier aims. I just want to sit back and write and fret about it. I know future generations will wish I had done more. I wish I would do more. I still can, which is precisely the point of the Attenborough documentaries, but I’m not at all certain that I will.
April 7
We are in the heart of springtime here in Maryland. The last couple of days have been about as pretty as they can be. Clear skies, low 70s, blooms everywhere. I had lunch yesterday outside at the Turn House and actually got a sunburn of sorts on my hatless head. Our landscapers showed up and are working on the weeds. I’m trying not to feel guilty about paying them to work while I sit on the deck reading and typing and napping.
I got a catalog yesterday from Smithsonian Journeys and coincidentally an article in the NY Times today talks about lots of different tours ramping up. My wanderlust appetites are getting juiced, and the Smithsonian programs no longer seem outrageously expensive. Some even seem like relative bargains, like the 3-week immersive programs in Provence or Tuscany. I could even see bundling or leveraging some of the one-week stays in places like the Amalfi Coast or Italian Lake District or Ireland. I’m starting to like the idea of having a guided program for a while, then stay for more time on our own. The Mystery Lovers England tour themed to various mystery writers seems like something Barb might like. Someday.
I’m trying to imagine what life will be like when we can travel again. How will we balance Barb’s work schedule while she’s still working, and then afterwards? What about my home and yard responsibilities? I’m starting to like just paying people to do the yard, even if it seems extravagant and lazy, but then there’s still the cat(s), newspapers and mail — we need more than one neighbor to inconvenience. How much travel will I be able to do on my own? How much do I/we really need to do while we can? How much travel will be built around family vs. just on our own? When do we really start thinking about downsizing our home to a smaller footprint and no yard…and where? I don’t have answers to any of these questions, and only a few ideas of how to answer them, nor have I had much discussion with Barb. It’s the kind of thing she doesn’t like to worry about, especially while she’s working.
Allie is returning to Boston from California today. She’s had a good time in Palm Springs, it seems. We have our second Covid shots this Sunday at Six Flags. We should be fully immune by the end of April. I started tennis indoors on Monday and was not too much worse for wear afterwards. I’m still not quite sure why I’m doing it for these last few weeks of the season.
The virus numbers are still trending up globally but have stabilized for the moment in the U.S. The worry now is the continued rampant outbreak in Brazil, the spillover it’s causing in the rest of the Americas and the potential for new variants. People are starting to realize we may need annual (more frequent?) Covid shots with boosters for each year’s variants. How will that get done and who will pay for it?
Numbers:
- Global cases: 132,000,000; Daily average: 603K; Total Deaths: 2,870,000
- USA cases: 30,900,000; Daily average: 65K; Total Deaths: 556,000
- Maryland cases: 419,000 Deaths: 8,378; “At risk of outbreak” per CovidActNow.org
- 1 state “On track to contain COVID” (Northern Marianas)
- 13 states “Slow disease growth” (Nevada, Missouri, New Mexico, Louisiana, Arizona…)
- 26 states “At risk of outbreak” (Colorado, Nebraska, West Virginia, IIllinois, Maryland…)
- 13 states “Active or imminent outbreak” (Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Alaska…)
- 0 states “Severe outbreak”
April 11-12
Today is the day for our second round of vaccine shots. It’s a Sunday and we’ll make the hour-long drive back to Six Flags for the pleasure of winding through their drive-through maze again. It’s the best use of a Sunday: Barb will have time to put a further dent in her backlog of magazines and other things to read, I get to listen to music and maybe do a little reading of my own, and at the end we come out immune to this blasted virus. Or at least nearly immune. We still have to wait a couple of weeks for the vaccine to take full effect.
So for at least two more weeks there will be no real change in our activities, and I’m not sure exactly how things will change after that. We will be able to go to restaurants and, I suppose, movie theaters again but we will likely still wear masks in most settings. Barb is not making any immediate plans to go back into the office more frequently but I guess that may start to happen in May or so. But even then, it would be gradual and not mandatory.
I have a hard time imagining going back to concerts anytime real soon. I see that Richard Thompson, who is busy promoting his new book, Beeswing, has concert dates at the Birchmere in Alexandria in June, but I don’t see myself making the journey for that…although, come to think of it, if I got a hotel room in Alexandria it would be a nice excuse for a little mini-break and another good meal or two. So maybe. I haven’t seen other concerts of note on the horizon but I haven’t really been looking too hard — the whole idea of sitting in a room with a lot of people is still daunting, vaccine or no vaccine.
The Spring weather is still lovely; the blooms in our backyard are just slightly past peak. I had a bit of a perfect moment last evening sitting on our porch. The temperature was 67 degrees, the air was still, the scent of freshly mowed lawn lingering (my day’s labors done, and each of my neighbors, too…all of us did the first cuts of the season), the trees lovely in the twilight, the birds singing, no extraneous traffic noise, Manny resting on a chair nearby. It was a few minutes of exquisite stillness. Listening to a bird song, I remembered Laurie telling me about a phone app that identifies birds by their song so I tried to download it. Apple broke my reverie by insisting on my Apple ID password, not just my fingerprint. I had to go look it up which completely killed the moment. Thanks Apple.
I’m back on the deck this morning and the atmosphere is nearly as nice, but not as perfect as last night. Now the carpenter bees are buzzing, Manny is agitated, there’s more traffic noise from the road, more of a breeze blowing the blossoms away like snow flurries, a crow’s caw drowns out the sweeter bird songs. It’s pleasant but it’s not perfect.
I’ve started reading 21 Lessons for the 21st Century by Yuval Noah Harari. I’m enjoying it, mostly, and am in the library queue to get what appears to be his more notable book, Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind. In 21 Lessons he explores topics like the role of the democratic nation state, the advent of technologies like AI and bioengineering to significantly alter human activity, existential threats like climate change and nuclear war. You know, big stuff. I don’t agree with everything I’ve read so far, but I like that Harari is thinking about the future and where things are headed. It’s a generally optimistic book but it also points out many disastrous paths that could await us if we don’t take care. Most of all, it’s a reminder that life is not static; things, including humanity, will change and evolve and we ought to do what we can to mindfully make better choices along the way. I’ll keep reading and hope to have more to say in a while.
I was pleased to get some positive feedback from my first crack at my Goodloe Genealogy posted a couple of days ago. Once again, this exercise in plumbing our family history has uncovered some interesting and unknown tidbits and links. I’m getting a little more skeptical about the accuracy of the things I find via the internet, but there seems to be at least some plausibility. A number of new doors on the Duncan family history opened just on Friday. I’m going to let things settle for a bit before tackling it again, but there are further avenues to investigate and/or corroborate.
I’ve also been in touch with Barb’s cousin, Stewart, and have started to have a nice dialogue. He says he will send some photos and things when he gets a chance. I gave him access to the site and he seemed to like it. We’ll see where that goes. It’s nice to have a little bit broader audience, and always nice to hear people say nice things.
—-
Getting the shot this time was even easier. We were in and out of Six Flags within 30 minutes or so, including the 15-minute wait to make sure we didn’t collapse from complications. I don’t think it was faster due to any change in process — every step was pretty much the same — there were just fewer cars in line. I guess that’s a reflection that the system is getting through our tide of late phase one and early phase two candidates, and also that there are more vaccines available through local outlets like grocery stores and pharmacies. I think Maryland is moving into phase 3 for anyone over age 16 starting next week.
Allie was excited to have her first shot scheduled for April 22 in Massachusetts, but was dismayed to get notice last night that it was cancelled. It seems she (and a lot of other people) signed up through a portal that wasn’t supposed to be publicly available. She’s not technically eligible yet, but will be next week anyway when the state opens more widely. So she’ll have to wait until next week to jockey for a proper appointment. I don’t think it will prove very difficult, but it’s another little bump in the stuttering bureaucracy trying to figure out how to get shots to everyone.
While I’m here with this extended post, I may as well peek at the numbers. Daily case loads are rising again in the U.S. (up 11% from two weeks ago) and even more globally (15%). The world will shortly pass 3 million deaths from the virus and is getting close to its peak daily load of cases (740K) experienced in January. Brazil and India seem to be the biggest international concerns of the moment. The EU is still having trouble getting vaccines out, but at least the UK has done fairly well and is starting to lift restrictions. Here in the U.S. we can see a return to some sort of normalcy in the summer, but things are not nearly as certain around the world, which means not only prolonged suffering but also extended opportunity for new variants and more problems. That’s not a happy thought.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 136,000,000; Daily average: 676K; Total Deaths: 2,940,000
- USA cases: 31,200,000; Daily average: 70K; Total Deaths: 562,000
- Maryland cases: 427,000 Deaths: 8,455; “At risk of outbreak” per CovidActNow.org
- 1 state “On track to contain COVID” (Northern Marianas)
- 7 states “Slow disease growth” (New Mexico, Hawaii, Kansas, California, Mississippi…)
- 32 states “At risk of outbreak” (Alaska, Vermont, Maine, Maryland, South Dakota…)
- 13 states “Active or imminent outbreak” (Michigan, New Jersey, Rhode Island, New York, Minnesota…)
- 0 states “Severe outbreak”
April 18
We are one week after getting our second shots, one week away from being fully immunized. Feeling pretty good about that, but the real health news in our house is that Barb’s going for her colonoscopy tomorrow which means today is her fast and cleanse day. She’s been increasingly agitated about the prospect of going a full day without solid food, and even more agitated that she will have to take her bowel cleansing medicine around 1am in the morning to prepare for her 9am procedure. We have Gatorade and Italian Ice cups and lime Jello on hand for her liquid diet. I’m not quite sure what I’m going to eat today, but I mostly intend to stay out of her way.
We learned that Laurie got her first shot on Friday, with help from Maggie to navigate the Spanish medical bureaucracy. That’s excellent news. There had been many questions when and how Laurie would get vaccinated under Spanish rules. We’re all glad that’s sorted out.
Allie is newly scheduled for her first shot on Tuesday. She’s been going through her own saga of anxiety and bureaucratic hurdles to get an appointment but this one seems pretty firm, and it’s sooner than the appointment that was cancelled. She’s very eager to get the vaccine in advance of our trip to see her next month, May 20. Things are looking good. She’s lining up dining options and activities for us. One will be a visit to the Gardner Museum which was the subject of a recent Netflix documentary about the 1990 robbery there. Allie and I both enjoyed the documentary about the still-unsolved heist.
As we, the vaccinated, start to get our lives back, the virus is still a cause for concern. We passed the awful threshold of 3 million deaths worldwide. The daily case counts in the U.S. and globally may have just peaked but it’s too soon to be sure. Case counts are high in the Rust Belt and Mid-Atlantic but dropping in the South and West where it’s warmer.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 140,000,000; Daily average: 717K; Total Deaths: 3,010,000
- USA cases: 31,600,000; Daily average: 68K; Total Deaths: 566,000
- Maryland cases: 434,000 Deaths: 8,528; “At risk of outbreak” per CovidActNow.org
- 1 state “On track to contain COVID” (Northern Marianas)
- 10 states “Slow disease growth” (Wyoming, Louisiana, Arizona, Mississippi, Kansas…)
- 27 states “At risk of outbreak” (Maryland, Vermont, South Dakota, West Virginia, Alaska…)
- 14 states “Active or imminent outbreak” (New Jersey, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware…)
- 1 states “Severe outbreak” (Michigan)
I haven’t felt the urge to report on politics because things have been blessedly quiet. Events are happening in the U.S. and around the world, to be sure, but Biden and his administration have successfully lowered the temperature over their first several months. It remains a great relief. We’ll see how long it lasts.
April 23
It’s a Friday and we’re close to being fully baked in with our vaccines. Barb’s starting to feel chipper, setting up lunch dates with various friends. She got new computer glasses today and hopes it helps with her eyestrain. She’s planning to go into her DC office one day next week for the first time in ages. I asked whether there’s any plan for people to return in general and the answer still seems to be nothing definite. Some discussions are starting but it really comes down to what the overall Federal government decides…it won’t really be up to her or her boss. Barb’s guess is that they may start back up in September, but it’s just a guess.
Allie had her first shot on Tuesday and, other than feeling tired afterward, has been buoyant about getting it. We’re still eager to head up and see her on May 20. She’s been calling us nearly nightly to give us updates on her and Perri. It’s fun to talk to them both.
I’m doing OK, physical and mental healthwise, but coming off a few relatively unproductive days where I watched TV and listened to podcasts a little more than usual. I finished my burst of Goodloe research and writing, finished the Yuval Harari 21 Lessons book, and felt I needed a little break. I started to get back in the saddle with the 2006 Second Half post and have started processing photos. Something seems to have changed a little with my WordPress site — it had been easier to load Google photos directly into the site but now I’m having to go through several steps. It’s just slowing me down a little. I did find a little gimmick that lets you scroll through each gallery of photos a little more nicely. I hope it helps viewers of the site; I wish I could get it to display the captions too. Maybe someday.
I have just one final episode remaining in the French Revolution podcast (spoiler alert: Napoleon wins). It’s been a bit of a slog — more than 50 episodes with an endless amount of detail. I’m glad there will not be a test, but I feel like I finally have a better handle on the course, causes and effects of the revolution. I’ve more or less answered the questions I started investigating several years ago about the relationships between the American and French revolutions (some, but not as much as I’d thought). And I have a better grasp on the roles of folks like Napoleon, Lafayette, Robespierre and others…so many others. Next it’s on to the Haitian Revolution which, believe it or not, I’m looking forward to.
I’ve also started the Cocaine and Rhinestones country music podcast which got a glowing writeup and is just starting its second season. I haven’t enjoyed the first 3 episodes very much, but I’ll give it a few more tries. I have a feeling it will get better but I’m not sure I’m up for a whole season about George Jones. The podcast is done by the son of David Allen Coe who is not high in my pantheon of country stars, but I’ll give it a go.
My proximate cause for writing today is to comment on the dramatic rise in Covid cases and deaths in India. We’ve been hearing about it for a couple of weeks but it has gotten even worse, with India now daily breaking the record for most cases recorded in a day, today north of 320,000 cases. I had to search out the graph for India and it’s shocking how steep the rise has been in the past month. The graph for deaths is equally alarming, especially given that deaths lag the case counts by several weeks. The Indian hospital system is overwhelmed and people are dying without having the chance for care. There appears to be at least one new highly contagious variant in India, though little seems certain, It’s a stark reminder that the virus can still take off even when it seems more or less under control, as it did in the beginning of March.
The numbers continue to stabilize in the U.S., which is something of a relief, but the situations in India and a few other nations are driving up the global numbers. It’s a sign that the virus will not be going away anytime soon and that global travel and economic recovery is still in doubt. Here in the U.S. where about half of the adults have had at least one vaccine shot, there’s a feeling that we’re pretty much done with the virus. I suspect the virus is not done with us.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 144,800,000; Daily average: 791K; Total Deaths: 3,070,000
- USA cases: 31,950,000; Daily average: 67K; Total Deaths: 570,000
- Maryland cases: 440,000 Deaths: 8,625; “At risk of outbreak” per CovidActNow.org
- 1 state “On track to contain COVID” (Northern Marianas)
- 7 states “Slow disease growth” (New Mexico, Arizona, Mississippi, Hawaii, Oklahoma…)
- 32 states “At risk of outbreak” (Massachusetts, Connecticut, Illinois, Alaska, Tennessee…)
- 12 states “Active or imminent outbreak” (Michigan, New Jersey, Delaware, Puerto Rico, Pennsylvania…)
- 0 states “Severe outbreak”
Biden continues to work rather quietly through his agenda of very major programs. His infrastructure plan is being debated, his health and family plan is in the works, and he’s currently hosting a global climate change summit that has produced some ambitious new goals for carbon reduction. How much of this agenda makes it into law is still in doubt, but at least the proposals are rolling forward and there’s the appearance of positive momentum. He has the prospect of being a highly productive president, which would be a genuinely pleasant surprise.
So, overall, we’re not quite sure whether to be optimistic or pessimistic. There’s little alternative but to wait and see how things go. Such is life.
April 29
It’s been a busy few days even though nothing much was on my calendar. Yesterday was a big houseplant and yard day. I moved all the potted plants up from the basement to the deck which took more than an hour and many, many trips up and down the stairs. Then I tackled the yard, weed whacking to try to keep the flower beds looking decent, mowing the yard including double or triple mowing areas of the back to get rid of clumps of dead grass, and watering all the flowers we put in last weekend. It was a lot of work for me, though it would have been an easy day for a real landscaper or someone who actually works for a living.
Barb was in her DC office for the first time in months, and is in Baltimore today. She’s not officially shifting back to office work, and there’s no plan for her or anyone to do so, but she’s more comfortable going in now that she’s fully vaccinated.
We’re at another moment of uncertainty in the pandemic. Things are likely to get better in the coming weeks and months, but there’s still ample room for concern that things could get worse very quickly. Between 40-50% of all Americans have at least one dose of vaccine, including over 80% of those 65 and older. Even better, there’s strong evidence that even if vaccinated people get the virus, which is still possible, their symptoms are less life-threatening. Within the past week or two vaccines are available for anyone who wants one in the U.S., but nevertheless, demand is slowing.
I suspect over the next month we will mop up the remaining U.S. population that wants to get vaccinated which may get us to around 60-70% of the country. The rest of the population is unlikely to get vaccinated no matter what. There is enough doubt, political or cultural antipathy, inconvenience and sheer laziness to keep this country from getting much more than 60-70% vaccinated, I expect. Whether that’s actually enough to reach herd immunity and some sense of normalcy remains to be seen. I suspect it will be enough to get us to a reasonable new normal, but the virus will still have a strong enough foothold in the U.S. and around the world to remain dangerous, particularly for new variants.
The situation in India, for example, is still dire and a lesson that the virus can still cause unpredictable and horrific outbursts. The world is currently experiencing more cases per day than ever before, more than 826,000 each day, though the rate of rise slowed in the past week. Vaccine rollout in other countries is much slower than the U.S. (although Israel and the U.K. take the prize for fastest rollouts). It will take many months to vaccinate even half the world, which means the virus will continue to flare up and mutate through this year and next.
We will be living with this virus for years to come. The trick is to not have so many people die or need hospitalization from it.
Numbers:
- Global cases: 147,200,000; Daily average: 826K; Total Deaths: 3,110,000
- USA cases: 32,100,000; Daily average: 53K; Total Deaths: 572,000
- Maryland cases: 443,000 Deaths: 8,661; “At risk of outbreak” per CovidActNow.org
- 1 state “On track to contain COVID” (Northern Marianas)
- 9 states “Slow disease growth” (Louisisana, Arizona, New Mexico, Kansas, Alabama…)
- 33 states “At risk of outbreak” (Alaska, New Hampshire, Illinois, New York, Connecticut…)
- 10 states “Active or imminent outbreak” (Michigan, Colorado, New Jersey, Minnesota, Pennsylvania…)
- 0 states “Severe outbreak”
I started down a rabbit hole of considering likely implications for myself and the world but for the moment there are too many imponderables and I can’t rise above the deeply self-interested. Nor do I have the time right now to do any justice to the topic. My top selfish concern is where and when I might travel again, but that wraps back into the annoying inconveniences of leaving home. It makes my head hurt. I will try to think more constructively on these topics, but not right now. Right now I need lunch.
Related Post: Coronavirus Journey, Part 15
Related Post: Coronavirus Journey, Part 13
You must be logged in to post a comment.