Coronavirus Journey, Part 10

Part ten of my ongoing journal entries about life in the time of the 2020 Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic. Previous posts: Part One (Jan-Mar, 2020). Part Two (April 2020). Part Three (May 2020). Part Four (June 2020). Part Five (July 2020). Part Six (August 2020). Part Seven (September 2020). Part Eight (October 2020). Part Nine (November 2020).

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December 4

It’s a Friday, now starting month ten of our coronavirus journey. December is setting up to be the worst month yet, but probably not the worst month to come — January and February will likely be worse. After that, I hope and believe things will start improving.

After the Thanksgiving week “blur” of slightly lower numbers due to reduced testing and reporting, the virus numbers are jumping. Some of that may be due to late reporting from last week but no one seems to think they will get better in the immediate near term. Within the next week or so we will see the results of Thanksgiving travel and gatherings. This week the U.S. is daily topping 200,000 cases and 2,000 deaths. Today’s numbers were 216,548 cases and 2,857 deaths, both near records that will likely soon shatter.

Numbers:

• Global cases: 65,400,000; Daily average: 607K; Total Deaths: 1,510,000
• USA cases: 14,200,000; Daily average: 180K; Total Deaths: 276,000 
• Maryland cases: 206,000  Deaths: 4,764; “uncontrolled spread” per CovidExitStrategy.org
  • 0 states “Trending Better”
  • 1 states “Caution Warranted” (Hawaii)
  • 2 states “Trending Poorly” (Maine, Vermont)
  • 49 states “Uncontrolled Spread” 

Hospital systems across the country are straining with more than 100,000 beds in steady use. The biggest constraint is not beds but medical staff, especially nurses, who are facing exhaustion and a long winter ahead. Last spring, overflow medical staff voluntarily moved to regions in need. Now they are needed everywhere and there is no surplus.

The NY Times ran a good article today, updating one they did in June, asking hundreds of epidemiologists about activities they would or would not do. I think I’m doing pretty well, per their recommendations. I should make sure Barb sees the article because she and I differ. In most other walks of life (food, travel, finances, entertainment…), she is more risk-averse than me but she is more risk-tolerant when it comes to the virus. She thinks I’m overly conservative. She said last night she can’t understand why the virus is getting worse in Maryland since everyone she sees seems to be wearing masks. I tried to explain that it’s more complicated but the conversation abruptly ended before it really began. Meanwhile, she worked in her Baltimore office yesterday and is in DC today. She really doesn’t like the prospect of working entirely from home for the winter and she’s not likely to stop going into the office once a week or so.

This topic is coming to a head as we approach a decision on whether to have Allie come down for Christmas. So far we are planning on my driving up to get her and Perri on December 19 and then take her back before New Year. Barb is quite eagerly anticipating doing things with Allie here, what to cook, what to eat, where she will work, etc. I’m growing increasingly reluctant but haven’t really shared that with Barb yet. I think it would be a lot safer to postpone having Allie down until March or April. I’m not sure how or when we will have this discussion, but it’s coming.

I spent some of last week booking a house in Breckenridge, CO, for next July 10-15. The place looks very nice and we hope to have Betsy, Joe, Sara, Tylor, baby, Kristen, Allie and Dan with us for some or all of the days. I’m optimistic that we’ll be able to travel relatively safely by then and will be able to enjoy outdoor activities and dining (hopefully) by then. Even if we have to hunker down in the house, it shouldn’t be too bad.

I’m enjoying reading Spying on the South by Tony Horwitz, following in the footsteps of Frederick Law Olmstead’s 1850s journeys from Maryland to Texas. It’s well done and has sparked my interest in seeing some of these areas when it’s safer to travel. I took some time to research music and historical sites in Memphis and the Mississippi Delta — there are a bunch and I can foresee one or more trips there. Also to Nashville and eventually back to New Orleans. The Austin to San Antonio corridor is also of interest. I’m not sure I would want to have Barb along on any of these journeys (nor would she want to), so I’m not sure when these might ever happen, but someday.

I spent another chunk of time working on changing beneficiary statements for our various investment and insurance policies to reflect our new family trust. It’s a pain in the neck but I hope it will prove useful to Allie down the line. There is still a lot to do to get our various affairs in proper order but I’m working on it.

I got a nice email from Maggie about Billzpage. It’s nice to get some encouragement. I haven’t done much work on the page for the past week or so and need to get back in the saddle. I’m a little hung up on writing about my Planning Coach interlude and my history with personal financial planning. Also, starting 2005 is daunting for the volume of pictures and stuff.

So, you can see, I’m not pessimistic about the future. I’m making plans and have a bunch of things I’d like to do. It’s important to me to stay extra safe over the next few months to make sure we can all get to the other side of this virus.

December 6

A non-Covid discussion for today. I’ve come across a confluence of articles, the book I’m reading and recent TV documentaries which revolve around the longer term cycle of conservatism in these United States. They seek to explain or at least reveal the long-term antipathy toward government, progressive ideas, diversity, urban/coastal elites and such things that are most lately manifest themselves as Trumpism. They try to help pointy-headed liberals answer the question “who are these people” who voted for Trump.

Geoffrey Kabaservice’s Washington Post editorial points to a “forever grievance” that recurs in conservative Republican politics/support stretching back at least from McCarthy to Goldwater to Reagan to Gingrich to Tea Party to Trump. Beverly Gage’s companion piece further posits that, with former-president power and more direct communication platforms, Trumpism is likely to have a longer impact than McCarthy or other conservative movements. Ross Douthat tries to explain (in a somewhat befuddling way) why so many believe Trump’s line that the election was stolen. And those articles are just from this weekend’s papers.

Tony Horwitz’s Spying on the South book finds a widespread core of discontented, government-hating, gun-loving, xenophobic, evangelical white folks who pre-date Trump. These are the same folks that Hillary Clinton called “deplorable” in 2016 and Obama claimed “cling to guns or religion” in 2008. They’re the same conservative core that Reagan rode to power over his career, illustrated in the Showtime documentary series, The Reagans, that responded to his mantra that government is the problem, not the solution. Frontline’s America’s Great Divide tried to map the widening rift over the Obama-Trump years. Trump enticed more than 74 million of them to vote for him this year, the most ever of any candidate other than Biden. 

Jeff Spross’ insightful article in The Week about Obama’s “guns or religion” quote is worth reading (especially noteworthy since it’s from March 2016 when Trump was still one of many potential candidates). Its conclusion, “that racism and tribalism are in many ways chronic aspects of the human condition, and giving people something to hold onto — a sense of solidarity, of hope, of socioeconomic inclusion — is key to combating them” is a lesson that has still not been well-learned by Democrats. 

Rather than rail against the right-wing information vortex or claim that “You can’t argue with a closed mind” and “You can’t argue against a conspiracy theory,” it may behoove Democrats and liberals to recognize something closer to Hilary Clinton’s inartful argument. While there is a hard core of folks that are predisposed against government in general and progressive policies in particular, there is a (broader? smaller?) group that can respond to appeals to inclusion and letting them go about their lives unencumbered by Washington and its dramas. 

Distrust of government and “others,” misinformation and conspiracy theories may be more rampant than usual but they are nothing new in America. Biden’s offers to bridge or “heal” these divides is overly optimistic and he shouldn’t make promises he can’t keep. It will be challenging enough to devise programs and strategies that attract rather than repel conservatives. It’s a real problem to conjure up government programs for a crowd that wants as little government as possible.

I didn’t quite arrive at any conclusion that I wanted. But the problem of America’s divisiveness is becoming a little clearer. We have to keep working toward answers.

December 10

We had a record number of deaths in the U.S. yesterday: 3,055. We will top 300,000 by mid-December, faster than was predicted just a month ago (see November 7 and 9 posts). There’s no joy in reporting this, just a resignation that it was too easy a call that we would reach these thresholds. I saw one health expert on the news last night say the number of cases and hospitalizations do not yet reflect the expected post-Thanksgiving surge. They should start hitting hospitals soon — figure a couple of weeks for virus cases to rise, another week or two for hospitalizations to rise, and another couple of weeks for deaths to follow. Bleak.

Numbers:

• Global cases: 69,100,000; Daily average: 626K; Total Deaths: 1,570,000
• USA cases: 15,500,000; Daily average: 210K; Total Deaths: 290,000 
• Maryland cases: 223,000  Deaths: 4,962; “uncontrolled spread” per CovidExitStrategy.org
  • 0 states “Trending Better”
  • 1 states “Caution Warranted” (Hawaii)
  • 0 states “Trending Poorly”
  • 51 states “Uncontrolled Spread” 

Local numbers in Maryland are rising quickly. We’re now averaging 35 deaths per day; a month ago that was less than 10. Hospitals are filling, currently about 80% of hospital and ICU beds are occupied. I saw a report that the bigger constraint remains staff — there is only enough staff to cover about 85% of the available beds.

A glimmer of good news is that the vaccines (which should get U.S. approval today or tomorrow) should put a dent in the death rate by February and March. The projection from a month ago showed deaths rising until mid-January and staying nearly the same level through February and March. Now the projection is for deaths to peak in mid-January (call it the day before Inauguration Day!) and start dropping after that, back to summer levels of under 1,000/day in March and presumably lower after that. There’s not much we can do about the numbers between now and mid-January, but things look better after that. We’re still likely to see 200,000 more people die over the next 90 days (twice as many as the previous 90 days, or equal to the initial seven months of the pandemic) but, shockingly, that represents an improvement.

We are still thinking that I will drive up to Boston next week to get Allie, but we haven’t really had a proper discussion. I want to defer it until March or so. I guess we’ll decide this weekend. Stay tuned.

December 14

Today is, as my NY Times newsletter reminds us, a big day in the U.S. The first vaccine shipments are going into peoples’ arms as we pass 300,000 deaths, electoral college voters are meeting in all 50 states, and on a local level, we learned Kristen tested positive for Covid-19 ten days ago (everyone seems OK) and Perri is getting spayed.

The first Pfizer vaccine shipments went out yesterday and one of the first shots went to a nurse in NY. We all hope this is the first step on a rapid road to improvement. A second vaccine will hopefully be approved this week. Meanwhile, the U.S. death toll crosses the 300,000 milestone today and we blew by 5,000 deaths in Maryland several days ago.

Numbers:

• Global cases: 72,400,000; Daily average: 626K; Total Deaths: 1,610,000
• USA cases: 16,400,000; Daily average: 210K; Total Deaths: 299,000 
• Maryland cases: 235,000  Deaths: 5,117; “uncontrolled spread” per CovidExitStrategy.org
  • 0 states “Trending Better”
  • 1 states “Caution Warranted” (Hawaii)
  • 0 states “Trending Poorly”
  • 51 states “Uncontrolled Spread”

The election nonsense, which ought to be put to rest but still isn’t (there were a few thousand Trump supporters in DC this weekend causing some havoc), should be finalized today with the electoral college convened for votes in state capitals around the country. That should be the end of it but Trump is playing the game “under protest.” SNL had a good piece this weekend about the alternate reality world where the NY Jets (the worst team in football) are undefeated. This is the world we’re living in.

Dealing with the local news, Betsy called yesterday to let us know about Kristen’s positive test and that they have all come through quarantining for the past 10 days. Kristen felt some tightness in her chest and lost her senses of taste and smell but seems to have had mild symptoms otherwise. She quarantined in her apartment with Sara and Tylor. Evidently Kristen was one of four workers at her Lululemon store that tested positive this month, so that’s likely where she got it. Sara thinks she may have some tightness in her own chest though she already tested negative last week. She’s getting a second test today. Betsy and Joe also quarantined for the week in their apartment, working from home the whole time. Of the bunch of them, Kristen is the youngest and healthiest, so at least seems the least likely to suffer serious consequences. We hope it ends there.

Allie dropped Perri off at the vet this morning and will get her back this afternoon. We hope all goes well with her and she has a quick recovery. Allie reported last week that Perri appeared to go into heat last week, but I guess symptoms only lasted a day or so and mostly seemed like Perri was unusually restless and rubby. We all hope the spay procedure has no ill effects.  

Barb spent much of the day Saturday at Ann Walters’ house working on wreaths and catching up on the year with Ann. She is the daughter of Fen and Haya Babcock so they’ve known each other all their lives. This time was a little weird for Barb as she learned that Ann is (probably) a Trump supporter and owns a gun with a concealed carry permit. Barb learned more about what an unhappy childhood Ann had, especially with Haya. It was not an easy trip but Barb ended up with a nice wreath.

After Barb’s return I expressed my reservations about having Allie down for Christmas. I tried to frame as a socially irresponsible thing to do which is something I’ve come to feel stronger about. Barb was having none of it. The conversation was short and I emphatically lost. After we got word on Sunday of Kristen’s positive test Barb started to question the wisdom of having spent the day with Ann, plus evidently seeing Harry and Luke’s girlfriend (I’m not sure if Luke was there, too). But she was no less adamant about having Allie come down. So, as of now, the plan is still for me to drive up Friday and come back down on Saturday with Allie and Perri. There’s now an added complication of a likely snowstorm on Wednesday-Thursday that might impact driving on Friday. Further discussions forthcoming.

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Late breaking news: in the evening of this “big day” we called Allie to get an update on Perri’s spaying (she did well but did not enjoy wearing her cone of shame). We also discussed the logistics of fetching Allie later in the week and having her down for Christmas. After some resistance and a few tears we concluded that it would be better to postpone the trip a couple of months until things are a little better (and Perri is healed). I’m very relieved. I owe Barb and Allie several nice vacations in the future and that’s fine with me. It feels like the wiser, safer decision. We will miss Allie tremendously over the holiday but it seems like the right thing to do.

December 22

It’s been more than a week since my last post; I have been busy working on other posts and various tasks, but I do have a few things to report and comment upon. (Typing that last sentence made me realize how much this journal has become my equivalent of going to a confessional booth at church…as if I really knew much about that. I guess it serves a similar purpose. And no Hail Mary’s afterwards!)

The virus is wreaking its predicted havoc. In the past 8 days we have added 5 million cases and 90,000 deaths worldwide; 1.7 million cases and 21,000 deaths in the U.S. That’s just in 8 days. It remains staggering and overwhelming, but here we are living it, hoping that this is near the worst and things will soon start getting better. A second vaccine (Moderna) was approved and will start shipping this week.

Numbers:

• Global cases: 77,400,000; Daily average: 645K; Total Deaths: 1,700,000
• USA cases: 18,100,000; Daily average: 216K; Total Deaths: 320,000 
• Maryland cases: 253,000  Deaths: 5,471; “uncontrolled spread” per CovidExitStrategy.org
  • 0 states “Trending Better”
  • 0 states “Caution Warranted”
  • 1 states “Trending Poorly” (Hawaii)
  • 51 states “Uncontrolled Spread”

Congress finally passed a $900 billion Covid Relief package that merges in an oh-by-the-way $2.3 trillion spending package that also funds the government and does all manner of other things in a 5,500+ page behemoth. It’s a sad example of what passes for governing nowadays. There’s no way legislators have a serious grasp of all the crap that’s been stuffed into this bill. Thanks largely to Mitch McConnell and Republican Senate intransigence this was effectively the only piece of legislation passed in the last six months or more, and likely the last during the Trump presidency so everything and the kitchen sink has been crammed in. There’s the rosy view of how moderates bridged the divide for this compromise to come together, but already there are reports of some of the other stuff…somewhat positive environmental legislation but also a crude tradeoff of tax credits for the poor vs. three-martini lunch tax relief that will benefit Trump (among others that don’t really need it) for years to come. It is such a hugely ineffective and inefficient way to govern — no wonder people hate Washington.

The U.K. has some variant of the virus that may be more contagious than the more common form which has prompted quick and massive shutdowns of travel to and from Europe, this just as Brexit talks come down to the wire. It seems like a practice round for what a hard Brexit break with Europe will look like. We hope the new variant does not mean a new front in the war against the virus; it seems likely that current vaccines will still be effective against it.

On local fronts, Barb seems reconciled to a Christmas on our own. She was helped somewhat by Amy Hunsberger, her colleague in Napa, California whose own daughter in L.A. is not coming home despite Amy’s wishes. As Amy put it, no one wants to be that family that ignored all the warnings. Nor do we.

Perri seems to have made it through her spaying operation and is more comfortable with her cone. Allie is in regular touch, mostly by text. We haven’t heard much more from Colorado but I think everyone is doing OK, though I’m not sure if Kristen has recovered her senses of taste and smell.

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Yesterday was the winter solstice and also the conjunction of Saturn and Jupiter in the evening sky, the best in 800 years, they say. I missed it (plus it was cloudy) but I did get a good photo a few evenings ago on a clear night with the moon thrown in for good measure. I’ll try again tonight.

December 28

Barb and I made it through Christmas alone together. It was sad but safe not being with other people. We did minimal decorations and had minimal presents (underwear for me, a bench scraper for Barb…whoopee!), had a good roast beef dinner that lasted for several more days, and watched lots of lots of TV, mostly separately. Barb got her holiday cards out before Christmas for the first time in decades. With little going on at work these few days she also had time to read, work on puzzles, relax and actually get a few good nights’ sleep. She deserves all that and more.

Allie and Perri spent the holiday at Dan’s and got home yesterday. She called to let us know as of yesterday morning she broke up with Dan, a culmination of multiple factors that I won’t go into for the sake of her privacy. She’s sad about it, though, which is understandable after 2.5 years together. She called later in the day and raised the possibility of coming home sooner rather than later. We agreed to let things settle for a week or so and revisit the question. At a minimum, she needs to self-quarantine for 10-14 days to make sure she didn’t contract anything at Dan’s. We’ll also see about the status of the virus in general. The reasonable part of me says the longer we wait the better, but we’ll also have to see what her situation is in another couple of weeks.

The virus numbers are actually marginally better for the past week but it’s likely another holiday aberration like we saw at Thanksgiving. The better test is where things stand in about two weeks as the data shake out from Christmas and New Year’s.

Numbers:

• Global cases: 80,900,000; Daily average: 567K; Total Deaths: 1,770,000
• USA cases: 19,200,000; Daily average: 185K; Total Deaths: 333,000 
• Maryland cases: 267,000  Deaths: 5,712; “uncontrolled spread” per CovidExitStrategy.org
  • 0 states “Trending Better”
  • 0 states “Caution Warranted”
  • 1 states “Trending Poorly” (Hawaii)
  • 51 states “Uncontrolled Spread”

The president, after a week of pointless dithering, signed the big Covid Relief bill which also funds the government and so on. It’s still crappy legislation but at least things can move ahead now. He’s still somehow protesting the election results and somehow a majority of his supporters believe him, which is endlessly troubling but so far just feeds general discontent and disillusionment with government, not outright revolt. It’s hard to see the point of it all. I doubt there is one.

We had holiday communications with various family members and all seem reasonably well. The Embreys celebrated in Colorado, with Kristen recovered from her Covid bout and Sara busily making baby plans. We have access to her very extensive baby wish list now so we can start to figure out what to get her. I had a nice long call with Laurie yesterday. She’s spending time at Maggie’s tending to the cat and chickens while the rest are with Juan’s family for a week or so. Sue and Len also seem to be doing fine in their bubbles. All good news, or at least no one volunteered any bad news.

I’m still working my way through my financial education post. It’s gotten very long and I’ve decided it’s a rough draft that I’ll pull actual other posts from. I’m trying to incorporate lessons learned and advice which I hope will prove useful to Allie or someone eventually. I’m finding the exercise useful; hope others will someday as well.

I’ve learned that I should format the dates of each of these posts into headers so I can more easily use them as link anchors within this site. That will entail walking though all 10 months of posts, but it’s probably a good thing to do. Seems like an appropriate end-of-the-year activity.

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Related Post: Coronavirus Journey, Part 11

Related Post: Coronavirus Journey, Part 9