With the 2020 global coronavirus pandemic well underway, I’ve decided to collect my personal journal entries in one place to get a sense of the flow of events. I won’t get any awards for insight, but want to track developments from my perspective as they go. We are in largely uncharted waters and I think it will be good (for me, at least) to be able to look back at a personal account.
January 18, 2020
We had dinner in Bethesda with Jeremy Wu and his wife. They mentioned in passing that they just canceled a trip to China planned the following week for Chinese New Year. Their itinerary included visiting friends and family in Wuhan and Hubei province but they had heard of a virus breakout and felt it would not be a good time to travel. I had seen initial news reports of a virus but was surprised that it would cause the Wu’s to cancel their trip. In hindsight, I’m very glad they were smarter about it than I was.
February 9, 2020
The corona virus in China has quickly spread, now passing the SARS death toll and having a large though undetermined impact on China’s economy and beyond. I haven’t written about this but it is a real and still-growing concern. There are many aspects to the story, including the basic medical concern, the complete shutdown of entire provinces in China (over Lunar New Year, no less), the wider impact throughout China and Hong Kong (travel has stopped, shelves in stores are empty, many schools and businesses closed), the global supply chain issues if China stays closed much longer.
There are human-level stories that are just beginning to emerge, like the whistleblower doctor in Hunan that just died, the cruise ship tourists quarantined in Japan, people stuck in places all over the world. Some are inconveniences, some are real tragedies.
There’s too much to deal with, topped by the staggering realization that regular old flu kills more than 10,000 people in the US every year, and that’s different than a pandemic like swine flu which killed hundreds of thousands worldwide in 2009. I had no idea. For now, the China corona virus outbreak is a concern but hasn’t had a tangible impact here in Maryland, anyway.
February 28
The corona virus has started to spread through Europe, Italy at the moment, along with South Korea. Global stock markets finally took notice and tanked all week long, dropping well more than 10% into correction territory. The US is starting to fall under the initial stages of panic about how widespread and damaging the virus may become. We will see, won’t we? For the moment, I’m simply hoping it won’t affect our trips to Aruba in a few weeks or to London in May. And it would be nice if the stock markets rebound quickly.
March 3
The coronavirus is spreading in the US, though somewhat slowly for the moment. I think the current death total is 10, all but one in Washington state. The press coverage has been breathless and the stock market continues to gyrate, some days more than 1,000 points up or down. I recognize that the situation is serious and it’s important to limit the spread of the virus, but I’m not convinced we need to shut down huge chunks of the country or economy as China did. I also think that if the press covered the impact of the regular seasonal flu (which kills more than 1,000 people each month in the US) with as much fervor, no one would ever leave their home.
March 10
Coronavirus became much more real over the past week or so in the US. I’m not sure of the current numbers, I think about 30 people have died out of maybe 1,000 cases. Meanwhile, Italy has effectively shut itself down for a month or so. They passed 10,000 cases today and something like 600 deaths. The stock market dropped 2,000 points yesterday, about 8%, then bounced back 1,000 points today. The Russians and OPEC, particularly Saudi Arabia, are feuding over oil prices and market share. Global markets are flirting with bear territory and a global recession seems all but inevitable. How long it lasts is an open question but for the time being the hope remains that it is a short, sharp V until some recovery. But no one is sure. The good news is that we left much of that behind for a few days and arrived in Aruba.
March 11
The WHO declared the coronavirus an official pandemic. Angela Merkel told Germany to expect for 70% of the population to become infected, even though their current number of cases is lower than the US. They are instituting steps for “social distancing” starting immediately to try to slow the spread of the disease. It seems like a very sensible step. The US government under Trump is still dithering but an increasing number of schools and events are cancelling gatherings. And the stock market drops continue.
There was a good chart that surfaced somewhere in my news feeds that showed the difference between a rapid explosion of an infectious disease versus a delayed, slower dispersal over time. The big impact has to do with the effect on medical facilities. If they get swamped (and healthcare workers get sick), things get dramatically worse. Of course, now that I mention it, I can’t find the chart. See Flattening the Curve.
March 12
Trump made a speech last night to reassure the nation about the coronavirus, including a surprise ban on travel from Europe. The man is just awful. Today markets tanked even further, the Europeans are furious, and people are confused. There were lots more cancellations today, including the NCAA tournament, major league baseball spring training and the first couple of weeks of the season, Broadway shows for a month. Allie was at the pool when the NCAA cancellation made the rounds to collective cries of “Nooooo!” from the many American sports bros lounging around. Things are getting very real. Barb’s work is still not shut down but many are anticipating it will be. Barb’s hoping she can at least get into work over the weekend to get things together.
Down here in Aruba, we’re still skating along with no real impacts. The folks at the Hilton are more assiduously cleaning and wiping things down, which is reassuring.
March 13
After yesterday’s coronavirus debacles in the news and stock markets, today seemed a start on coming to terms with shutting down large segments of American sports and entertainment activities. Allie’s work started telework procedures for the next few weeks. She promptly shopped for a new monitor, mouse and work table for her apartment. Barb’s work hasn’t made a call yet but she fully expects it will and she doesn’t like it.
Trump finally declared a state of emergency which frees up some funding and response procedures, but it seems very late to flip that switch. Nevertheless, the Dow bounced up 2,000 points, nearly 10%. This is going to be a very interesting few weeks; we’ll see if it turns into months. No one’s sure. There’s some speculation the virus could pause a bit in the summer months then come roaring back in the fall. I surely hope not.
The race at this point is to implement “social distancing” in order to delay and diminish the spread of the virus. That will prolong its impact on America, but maybe will lower the chance of a spike in patients overwhelming the medical system. Nonetheless, people are starting to do the math on the number of deaths likely if the virus spreads as it seems it will. If it reaches half of the US population, a death rate close to 1% will mean more than 1.5 million deaths over the next 12-18 months. And that’s just in the US. Make that 35 million deaths worldwide over the same period. That would be staggering and all-but-impossible to contemplate. And then there’s the economic impact (and second and third order impacts) on economies around the world. That’s what is panicking global stock markets this week. It’s very hard to believe the worst case will come to pass, but even cutting the numbers in half would still be staggering. These numbers make it imperative to slow the spread long enough to avoid flooding the medical infrastructure and hopefully develop some level of vaccine.
We had dinner with Jenny and Yonie, a Johns Hopkins faculty member and medical researcher. Dinner was nice but a little anxiety laden. The dinner conversation centered on coronavirus discussions, even though each of us tried to steer it elsewhere. I asked Yonie about the educated Johns Hopkins guess on the duration of the pandemic. He said it would likely not peak in the US for another 6-8 weeks, with another 6-8 week downslope on the other side. Tens of millions would get infected though many might not even notice, a million or more might die in the US. Again, we hope he’s wrong, but that’s where the numbers are pointing.
March 14
In today’s papers, there are several articles about how certain countries such as Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong have been able to curtail the spread of the virus and we hope there are good lessons to be learned for the US. It seems like the US response is now veering between over-reacting (shutting down schools, sports and too much of the economy) and lots of independent actions by states and individual businesses in lieu of good guidance from the President and the administration. The House and Pelosi appear to have passed a generous legislative response but it remains to be seen whether a) it will pass, and b) how it will be implemented. Trust is very low, which is a big problem.
It took us two hours to snake through the various lines at the Aruba airport to exit that country and clear US customs. There were no temperature checks, just a single question about where we had traveled in the past two weeks. We were cleared through quickly but the fellow in line ahead of us seemed to have answered poorly. He was ushered off through an unmarked door. Last we saw of him.
March 16
Today is the first day of our new normal. It’s Monday, Allie is back in Boston, Barb is home teleworking, having been ordered by her boss to self-quarantine for 14 days.
First, let me catch up with yesterday. Barb woke up and was on an unusual weekend (Sunday) conference call at 9am, then stayed on the phone and computer nearly nonstop for four hours as her office tried to vet a White House announcement/policy on coronavirus testing.
Allie did her laundry and we ate our mutual way through orange rolls, eggs, bacon and then fried chicken from Royal Farms. This could quickly get out of hand. Leslie and Emery stopped by to drop off a quart of milk that Barb had requested. It was good to see them and for Barb to vent for a bit. In mid-afternoon, Barb took Allie to the airport then covertly went to the office to gather things for her quarantine period. I went out hunting and gathering.
My first stop was Staples to get a monitor for Barb to work at home. Then I went to Giant and was able to actually find some of the things on my list. It’s a good thing Leslie got milk because there was none at Giant, nor any bread, pasta or hamburger (though plenty of Hamburger Helper). I decided to stop at Harris Teeter to see what they had and was able to pick up hamburger and cat food, but still no bread or other fixings for spaghetti sauce which is a big-time comfort food for us and something we can freeze. I started to feel a little guilty about the number of stores I was visiting, just in case I might actually be spreading the virus, so I came home with what I had.
I settled in at home to learn that the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to effectively zero and offered billions in credit and quantitative easing. Those were basically the whole bag of toolkit items from the 2008 financial crisis. Trump, who had been pressuring the Fed to do more, declared himself happy with these measures. The markets were not. Asian and European shares dropped all night and US futures were capped at a 5% drop.
Today, Barb woke up, sat down at the kitchen table and was not able to log in to her work email. This persisted for about two hours of mounting panic until her IT friend, Maceo, let us know that the HHS network had been hacked overnight and hers was not an isolated problem. He was able to guide her to a workaround (basically, an old webmail account) that at least got her connected, but she really couldn’t manage her emails properly. She was on a series of conference calls through the day, which is her normal routine, but these seemed a good deal more frantic than usual. She hardly rose from her kitchen table chair all day.
At noon, Maryland Governor Hogan unexpectedly announced that all Maryland restaurants, bars, gyms and other public gathering places would close at 5pm for at least two weeks. This was a more drastic attempt to limit social gathering and spread of the virus. It’s now all about “flattening the curve” so the healthcare system doesn’t get overwhelmed.
I decided to head to Giant one more time to get things and was pleased to find all I needed. I thanked one of the Giant guys restocking vegetables and he seemed to appreciate it. Everyone in the store, shoppers and staff alike, were extra polite and seemed willing to pull through this together. That was somewhat encouraging, but I was also careful not to touch anything that didn’t need touching.
This afternoon, I took a walk while Barb continued on conference calls. When I came back in the door, Barb gave me panicked instructions to contact Arathi about something but she was on the phone at the same time with Maceo and it became clear that she was also supposed to be on a conference call but was still working through things with Maceo. Eventually I figured out that Arathi was trying to tell her to set up a hot spot through her iphone, and Maceo was helping her do that. Once the conference call was all over, she got the hot spot figured out and was able to log in properly, only to find that she had a day’s worth of about 500 emails to manage.
While all this was going on, Trump and the Pence-led virus task force was holding a press conference. It was almost comical to watch the stock market ticker drop while Trump spoke. It ended with yet another worst day ever, down 3,000 points, nearly 13% to 20,188. Mind you, this was after Friday’s shenanigans where stocks went up dramatically as Trump announced happy news about virus test capacity which turned out to be misleading or downright false. Today, he tried to be more fact-based, admitting that the worst was yet to come and the social distancing measures would be with us until July or August, maybe longer. The message might have played better if he hadn’t been saying the opposite for the past two months.
So this is the new normal. Barb’s home, wrestling with a whole new level of technical obstacles to add to her already ridiculous workload. Plus she’s cold, sitting by the kitchen windows and the door where Manny keeps going in and out (I think we can manage a better solution for that in the next day or two). I’m stumbling around, trying to find a place to settle into whatever routine I can…predicated on getting Barb settled. We have enough food to get us through the week and longer if needed. The region, country and world are told to “hunker down” for a while…months now, not just a couple of weeks.
It occurs to me that we can manage this, one way or another. It feels like a large, global hurricane prep party that’s going to last a lot longer than a hurricane, but manageable for us. It would be a whole different story if either of us or someone we actually know gets sick. And it’s going to be a lot less manageable for people without a big pantry, an extra freezer and reliable income.
March 18
We are settling in. Barb is now set up in the dining room as her new home office. I’ve made several runs to Staples to get her a monitor, printer, keyboard and wifi extender. $400 later, she seems to be about as happy as she’s going to get. Work itself is still crazy for her as the department tries to keep up with the rapidly shifting situation and administration response.
Sue established email contact with the siblings and we got these updates from each:
From Sue:
Hello Family,
Let’s stay connected through this global shutdown. I think everybody needs all the emotional support we can get!
I was going to spend a week with Keri and the gang before they went to Guatemala for a month. But they decided to go early, so I’m still in North Carolina, feeling safe and warm and cared for by Susanna, Amila and Reef. Riad is still shooting the reality TV show, Love It or List It. That doesn’t sound very realistic to me, but oh well.
Keri and gang got as far as Ft Lauderdale before they learned that their Stone Soup Pop-Up in Guatemala was canceled, so they’re back in Gainesville now. Susanna has offered to drive me back if I want, but I feel better about being here with her. She feeds me elderberry syrup and vitamin potions and would be in a better able to help if I should get sick (with two kids rather than four). And it’s much calmer here! I’m staying balanced, looking for and finding silver linings.
Len, I hope Jazmin and family are able to help you if you need it.
Laurie, I know you said Maggie was not feeling well. How are things on your side? It looks intense from here.
Bill, is Barb working from home now? Did the shutdown affect your Aruba trip?
I love you all, and I’m sending healthy thoughts to each of you!
xoxoxo, Sue
From me:
Thanks for starting this, Sue. Good to know your situation. I was wondering where you would land and what happens to Keri and Susanna’s plans. Everyone’s homeschooling now, so they’re way ahead of the curve.
Our Aruba trip last week went fine, though Barb found it hard to relax. We returned Saturday as things were starting to get crazy at airports but our two hour wait in lines seemed mild compared to others.
Allie went back to Boston on Sunday and is now teleworking from her studio apartment. She seems to be already settled in. Barb is being forced to self-quarantine at home (much against her will) but we are getting her set up to work from here. Yesterday was a comedy of technical frustrations but we’re hoping today will be better. I’m fine, just trying to figure out where in the house I can be while Barb’s working and on conference calls. I made grocery store runs and was able to find most of what I wanted. We’re well set for a week or so and should be able to get more when needed.
So that’s our status. Hope everyone else is reasonably ok. It’s going to be a rather long haul, I’m afraid. It will be good to stay in touch.
Much love, Bill
From Len:
Hi, Everybody – I was hoping to find enough time and words to begin today to contact for all the family for myself. I’m glad Sue started without me and am also happy to hear from Bill and Barb today. Were you able to recognize much of Aruba, Bill?
I am still working on the route every day. Jazmin is still helping with me three mornings each week, although her work starts every day after Rio Rico and not for the complete route, so I have to be there everyday. Jazmin’s husband, Eduardo, helps whenever he is off with his regular job. We also have Jazmin’s nephew, Diego, who helps on some mornings, so I have no problem right now in the labor department.
I do have some problems with finding empty shelves in Safeway and Walmart. hardly any traffic, except at the Safeway and/or Walmart after I run errands after completing the morning route. The newspapers at the stores throughout my route are still selling like wildcakes, especially the New York Times.Nothing sells like bad news I’m afraid but if I have to keep selling newspapers, I guess good sales is not so bad.
Are you holed up in Spain, Laurie? Please tell me how you are doing.
I hope and pray all the family will be feeling as well as can be good. I am really happy to have some news now and then from each of you whenever you can find the time
It is a very weird and worrisome world we live in these days! I hope the best for each of you as you grapple along. Lots of love, Len
Please forgive my writing. I am still having quite a struggle with it. — and it takes me forever! So sorry!
From Laurie:
Howdy, family,
And greetings from our state of emergency. Spain is under lock down now–everything is closed and we are not allowed to leave our houses unless it’s to get groceries or go to the drug store or go to work if you work in one of those essential services. Today was day 5, and we are all wondering how long it will go on–looks like longer than the 2 weeks they originally said, most likely. It certainly feels serious.
Today I went out of my apartment because I had to get rid of my garbage, so I decided (against Maggie’s urgent wishes) to go to the vegetable stall a couple of blocks from my house to stock up on some fresh things. I wrapped myself up, walked a little nervously through the abandoned streets…really, it feels like science fiction to have city streets totally empty…without encountering anyone until I got where I was going where the vegetable seller and one other customer (totally masked and gloved and everything, making purchases for people who were quarantined), were the only people I saw. Then on the way home a police man drove by, and he acknowledged that I had grocery bags so I was okay.
Evidently they are fining people anywhere from 100-6000 Euros for being out without a mission. So strange. I was out for about 15 minutes and the whole time felt devilish, as Mom would say, but also sheepish and a big guilty because I had promised Maggie that I would find someone else to do my shopping for me–she’s worried because I’m the vulnerable population they keep talking about, with chronic lung problems and all. When I got home I scrubbed down, changed my clothes and put the others immediately into the wash just to be sure.
I am fine in my house, so very grateful that it is on a hillside overlooking a valley to give me a broader perspective, and that it gets a lot of sunlight along with its nice views. I think I’d go stir crazy if I didn’t have that.
I’m at my own place in the city and not Maggie’s out in the countryside because last week when things were getting serious here Maggie didn’t feel well for a couple of days. She had been exposed to someone who got sick (probably with something else), so she was worried about passing on that and she tried to quarantine herself in her own house. The boys had coughs and then Juan got sick, too, for a couple of days, so it looked like it was best for me to stay here. And then the state of emergency was declared so I can’t get out to their house until it lets up.
I am filling my time with a lot of activities. I’m painting (my teacher sends us assignments) and country line dancing (tonight my teacher put on a 2-hour class for us to do at home) and doing yoga classes, along with cooking (I made some very excellent chicken panang curry!!!) and reading and doing my taxes and some random cultural events that various institutions are putting up for public enrichment. After line dancing tonight I watched Carmen that the Met put up for streaming. I also like the tours that the various art museums around the world have on offer.
So I’m finding a lot to be grateful for in this time of being sequestered, to distract from the heaviness of the situation here. There are a lot of deaths being reported now in Madrid; less where I live in Segovia but the numbers are multiplying daily. Spain is quickly becoming like Italy in terms of expansion of cases. And Maggie was trying to get through to the corona virus hotline during the time when she was sick, to see if she should be tested, but couldn’t get through for days on end. I don’t think she ever did finally manage, so you have to wonder what proportion are actually being reported.
It’s scary to imagine what the overall impact of this will be on society and economy in the big picture, and how individuals will manage to maintain their day-to-day existence if this crisis goes on for months. But for the moment I’m doing well, health and spirits are good, and I’m certainly comfortable in all that.
Let’s hope we can all stay well through this scary time.
Sending love to you all, xxx Laur
March 19
We’re up to Thursday in our first week of self-quarantine and social distancing. Barb is going nuts with networking issues impeding her work-at-home situation. She is able to get on her work network and get things done before 9am and after 6pm. In between, it’s intermittent and just drives her (and me) nuts. She finally whined enough to her boss that she has permission to go into the office as long as no one there complains about it. She will try that this afternoon. I’m of two minds about it. I’m not eager to have her go out in the infected world or have her bring back potential contamination. But she’s making herself crazy and stressed trying to work here, and that’s not at all healthy for her.
I overheard a staff call she was running (I can’t help but overhear most of her calls when she’s in the dining room and I’m in the family room) and she did a good job of thanking everyone for their efforts and reminding them that theirs is very important work in this emergency, trying to facilitate greater care and services where it is needed even if the policies and working conditions sometimes seem frustrating. It’s quite true, and I admire her commitment and mission. It also makes me feel a little more guilty about hunkering down here and not being very productive myself.
Over the past couple of days I’ve been able to get a post done about our Aruba trip but other than that I find it hard to be productive. I’m watching news or checking my phone way too much, but significant things seem to happen by the hour. At least they seem significant. It’s hard to tell anymore.
We’re at a point where everyone knows the virus is important and having a global impact, but yesterday was the first actual death in Maryland. We can’t really tell how bad things truly are. My suspicion is that they’re not actually that bad yet, but will be within a week or so. So far, things are inconvenient but I have anxiety over whether I should be doing more to disinfect the house or be more productive tidying things up, filing, and getting my estate plan in order. Writing this journal and my posts are an outlet but not a terribly effective one.
March 20
There are some more sober articles coming out about what to expect over the coming months. Two recent good ones, in my opinion are this best case/worst case scenario from Nicholas Kristof and this what-happens-next piece from Ezekial Emanuel. Both predict the outbreak and social distancing requirements will last for many months, in (hopefully) decreasing waves. The most important test is the next few weeks. That will dictate whether hospital facilities will be overrun with patients in the first, biggest wave. It seems like the death toll can be managed and most people recover as long as the care facilities don’t get overwhelmed.
It’s also becoming clearer that while this is a global crisis, some countries and some states/localities will fare better than others. The biggest factors seem to be how effective the local government and population are at maintaining social distancing and good public health practices. Maryland’s Governor Hogan and Howard County Executive Calvin Ball seem to be a little bit ahead of the curve. I certainly hope it proves effective.
Today’s numbers: 250,000 global cases, 10,000 global deaths, 15,000 US cases, 202 US deaths.
Barb went into work today for a full day. I wish she wouldn’t, but there’s no stopping her.
March 22
Barb is still working exceptionally hard. Congress is trying to agree on a trillion dollar stimulus package and some of it filters down to CMMS and Barb’s group. She was at the computer all day yesterday (Saturday, from home, at least) and is back at it today on Sunday. Last night we mutually didn’t get to bed until after 2am which is not good for either of us.
While waiting for Barb to settle down last night, I ended up watching a NOVA Wonders episode about Artificial Intelligence. It was actually quite good and thought provoking, though that was not what I really wanted at 2am. It does a good job explaining the basics of what AI is and cataloging some of the recent advances, then raises some of the key issues of job losses and societal changes. The very last line lingered, “The stakes are incredibly high for getting this right. If we do it well, we move into an era of almost incomprehensible good; if we screw it up, we move into dystopia.” Even in this moment of global pandemic, I prefer to think of a future of almost incomprehensible good. I think the odds are in our favor over the historical short term, say the next several centuries or even a millennium or two.
It reminded me of a conversation last week (just last week!) with Allie after listening to a New Yorker podcast with scifi writer William Gibson in which he laments of the future. When he was young, everyone was excited about the 21st century. It was going to be so cool. Now that we’re here, there are lots of problems and no one seems excited about the 22nd century. I think people, especially of Allie’s age and younger, should be. They are going to see remarkable things in their lifetimes, and the lives of a great portion of humanity (and other species) will be markedly better. There will still be struggles, and the old staples of relationships, death and taxes will still be mysteries. But I strongly believe in the promise of the future and the benefits of technologies to come. There will be massive change and dislocations, and not all people will navigate them without trouble and tragedy. We collectively need to manage our way into the future to do our best for the most. Today’s societies, jobs and political structures will not necessarily be tomorrow’s. We need optimism to manage the world into a place we want it to be.
March 23
It’s Monday, Barb’s back at work and we’re into week two of social distancing and quasi-isolation. The first week was disorienting and anxiety-ridden, but my retirement mode of day-to-day activity was not terribly disrupted. I still took walks in the neighborhood, grocery shopped less frequently and cooked at home more. Spring is springing a bit early around here. Daffodils, crocuses and forsythia are in bloom. Cherry blossoms peaked in DC over the weekend and the crowds there forced authorities to restrict access around the Tidal Basin and Mall.
Barb’s work and life are much more disrupted. She and her team were on calls and reviewing documents all weekend. I was wrong in yesterday’s note to say that it was related to the trillion dollar stimulus package on Capitol Hill. Turns out the fire drill was over one of Jared Kushner’s harebrained schemes to get a private company to do something the government should more likely do. This morning, Barb said that it all disappeared in smoke and now they were onto a different harebrained scheme. Expending this amount of effort on dead ends compounds the level of frustration she and her team feels about this administration, plus it’s going to burn people out and distract them from what’s really needed.
Today’s numbers: Nearly 350,000 global cases, more than 15,000 deaths. In the US, more than 33,000 cases and 428 deaths. In Maryland, 245 cases and 3 deaths.
Laurie reports:
I’m fine, just hanging out doing classes and watching opera and cooking and eating here in lock down. So glad there’s internet. I’ve been out only once, to take the garbage out and run to the vegetable stand, since the state of emergency began–and I guess it’s official now that it will last at least another 3 weeks. I think tomorrow I’m going to need to get someone to go get groceries for me, which is weird. I keep busy but it’s weird how little I get done. I am cleaning my house little by little. Maggie could use some help with the little boys so I’m trying to figure out how to entertain them via Zoom one by one, since they’re not very good on skype for just chatting. But I still haven’t figured out how to do that, or what to present once I do. I’m keeping pretty positive but it’s hard to ignore the scary numbers of cases and deaths here in Spain.
Numbers in Spain: 33,000 cases, 2,182 deaths. Only Italy and China have more. Note the discrepancy between percent of deaths in US vs. Spain: 1.3% vs. 6.6%. This probably has more to do with the extent of testing and number of identified cases. Spain is a week or so ahead of the US in its level of exposure, too. There’s an expectation that the number of cases and deaths in the US will balloon this week. Spain is hoping theirs are starting to level off.
March 25
Barb continues going into the office but was spooked last night by a report that a contractor on her floor (but not in her immediate work area) tested positive for Covid-19. She started this morning working from home but by 9am or so again got frustrated with the networking arrangements and decided to head back in. She will probably go in tomorrow when the Maids are due to clean our house (we checked and they’re still working…and we need it). I plan to spend time on the porch while they’re here since I can’t go to Double T or the library as I usually do.
Our darling President made a statement yesterday that he wants to see America back up and open for business by Easter, less than three weeks from now. I’d like that too, along with my flying car and spare yacht. It’s not going to happen. My feeling is that the statement stems from a realization that his own net worth is dwindling fast, along with his re-election chances. The Trump organization had to close many of its hotels and clubs; he was whining on Sunday night that no one appreciates the sacrifices he has made over the past three years to run the country. He also is on the mantra that the cure of shutting down the economy can’t be worse than the deaths and disruption of the virus, which he seems to have picked up from Fox. I have to admit I had some of the same thoughts a few weeks ago, especially watching the draconian measures China put in place. But my thinking quickly moved on to recognize that you have to slow the spread of the virus to avoid the potential for millions of deaths.Trump’s thinking seems to be moving backwards.
We had a couple of days of semi-sane leadership from him last week. He couldn’t keep it together for long, however. By the end of the week he was starting to rant at reporters and his participation in the daily Coronavirus Task Force (that Pence is ostensibly running) briefing has basically turned it into a clown show of misinformation and grandstanding.
The open-by-Easter statement sparked outrage among the chattering classes and diluted the better news that Congress finally agreed to a $2 trillion relief package. Here, again, Trump will no doubt take credit for whatever beneficial effects the package generates even though he has been pointedly absent from any direct involvement in the negotiation. The package was negotiated between McConnell, Mnuchin and Schumer, with Pelosi on the sideline somewhat until the end. It’s Washington sausage-making at its best and worst. No doubt a lot of the funding will end up in inappropriate pockets but a lot of it should prove useful and it provides the appearance of movement and leadership. At least there seems to be a provision that funding will not go to Trump properties or other businesses of administration or Congress members. The stock market bounced 11% yesterday and another 5% so far today to above 21,000.
Number games: Global: 440,000 cases, 20,000 deaths. US: 60,000 cases, 807 deaths. Maryland: 423 cases, 4 deaths. The US numbers have grown dramatically in a few days, driven especially by increased testing in New York which now has 30,000 cases. Spain: 47,000+ cases, 3,400+ deaths; Spain has now surpassed China’s death total, second only to Italy.
March 26
Nicholas Kristof had another column in the New York Times today that includes an interactive model to illustrate the folly of Trump’s thought to curtail social distancing measures by Easter or some other arbitrary date. It very clearly shows that viral infections and deaths will spike dramatically if interventions are lifted too soon. Maintaining the interventions for 60 or 90 days brings the death totals down to much more “acceptable” levels of between 80,000 to 20,000, respectively.
The article is straightforward and the message loud and clear for any that read it. Kristof goes on to spell out the main assumptions in the model and then gives us sliders to play around with which is even more helpful and illustrative. It strikes me that the model does not adequately reflect improvements in treatment (either through expanded facilities or new medications) or development of a vaccine, which admittedly is probably beyond the model’s 10-month window. But that makes it no less effective in getting its points across. Kristoff notes this caveat: “These numbers offer a false precision, for we don’t understand Covid-19 well enough to model it exactly. But they do suggest the point that epidemiologists are making: For all the yearning for a return to normalcy, that is risky so long as a virus is raging and we are unprotected.”
The article focuses on effects within the US but the more detailed model lets you show results for the whole world as well as the US. Clicking on the world model is scarily awful, with tens of millions of deaths almost no matter what you do with the variables. With “moderate” global social distancing interventions in place for 60 or 90 days from today (which would be wildly optimistic), deaths only vary between 45-47 million.
This raises a variety of additional thoughts. One is that the model makes the case that we can, with smart but difficult measures, control the virus reasonably well within the US. Probably so can other advanced nations, given quick enough responses, adequate testing and treatment facilities, and a willing (or coerced) population. The true horrors will happen when the virus spreads in less advantaged populations. I’ve seen some articles of concern for places like Gaza, the Syrian refugee camps, and the slums of India or Nigeria. Those concerns are so far dwarfed by the crescendo of media attention closer to home. Maybe understandably so, and there seems little we can do for others when the first priority is to save our own closer populations. But we can already see the instinct of advantaged populations around the world to hoard supplies and keep the unwashed, diseased masses away from our walled-off shores. This is a recipe for greater nationalism and xenophobia.
Another thought, spurred by watching the virus spread so far, is that the outbreak waves are local/regional and can be tamped down (to varying degrees) with strong local measures. But the threat doesn’t go away and can easily return. It will be instructive to see what happens in China now that they are starting to lift travel and work restrictions…if accurate data from China becomes available.
This pandemic is truly unlike anything in living memory. As our Johns Hopkins friend said in Aruba, the only somewhat saving grace is that the great majority of people who get infected will have relatively mild symptoms or may not even know they have it. But given its likely spread, millions will die around the world. We are still in the early stages; this will remain a global crisis for months and will reverberate for years.
An Atlantic article by Ed Yong I read later in the day, “How the Pandemic Will End” is a good companion piece to Kristof’s column. The article offers what seems to be a clear-eyed view of the coming year or so. It spells out a likely scenario that stretches for months with multiple stages. The first stage will entail riding out the initial wave of the pandemic which will be more like multiple tsunami waves hitting different hot spots at different times, radiating recursively outward until it covers pretty much all the planet. Our greatest weapon in the short term is social distancing to keep hospital systems from being overwhelmed. Where they are overwhelmed, things will be especially dire. This will go on until we achieve a level of immunity either through herd accumulation (and die off) or a vaccine…likely a year or more. The resulting world has at least the potential to learn lessons and be a better place, or learn the wrong lessons and be much more nasty and brutish.
March 27
I didn’t play the number game yesterday but last night the US earned the distinction of having the most COVID-19 cases in the world, topping China. Congrats or something. Today’s numbers: Global 570,000 cases; 26,000 deaths. US 94,000 cases; 1,434 deaths. Maryland 774 cases; 5 deaths.
The $2.2 billion stimulus package passed the House today and was signed by Trump. That should help for a little while, but Trump is still sending mixed signals about getting businesses open soon in areas not severely affected by the outbreak, just as some places seem to be showing some results with social distancing and while New York seems headed over the brink. It’s not worth me spending the energy to chronicle all the ways Trump’s policies and statements appear shortsighted and just plain wrong. Sadly, I’m afraid the simple, awful numbers will tell the tale.
As of yesterday, Barb started working at home again, and is still at the computer all day and into the night. She took a “break” yesterday to drive into work to pick up a few things. Today she’s been here all day, as have I. Yesterday, I did some grocery shopping with stops at CVS (found thermometers!) and for Thai food. Today I worked on 1999 photos/posts, did some weeding and took a walk. Our neighbor, Janice, mowed her lawn for the first time this year. That means Spring has officially arrived. We are surviving well enough.
It occurs to me that for the next month or so as things get worse, each day is the best day to get something done — in other words, tomorrow is likely to be worse. That’s not a happy thought, by any means, but it is a spur to get things done rather than put them off.
March 28
Per the Beatles, “Da-da-da-da-da-da-da-dum. Today is your birthday!” For two more years I can still legitimately sing, “Will you still need me, will you still feed me, when I’m 64?” Not that I’ve ever sung it yet, on my own. But it’s comforting knowing that I could.
I thought of something, waking up: Today I’m older than I ever was, and younger than I’ll ever be. Why isn’t this the world’s most overused cliche? There’s a song in there.
A variant: Some days I wake up feeling older than I’ve ever been. Other days I wake up feeling younger than I’ll ever be. Some days, I’m lucky to simply wake up. I think I may have seen something like that on a t-shirt.
Today’s occasion precipitated calls with many corners of the family, which was nice. The calls served mainly as a way to check on each other’s well-being, which was also fine with me, and therefore are grist for this post.
Allie was first to check in, prompted by Barb, I believe, who was tracking my morning movements. Allie is doing well and was doing her best to be chipper on the call. We asked where she was spending the weekend and when she said she was at Dan’s, we expressed some clear worry (Barb more clearly than me) and Allie just about crumbled. I can well imagine that for Allie it’s not so bad being in her apartment during the week and having lots of outside contact and routine through work, but the prospect of spending the weekend there cooped up and alone would be daunting. I can readily understand her desire to see Dan and eagerness to spend time at his house with his family. But there is this glaring issue that Dan’s father is a nurse practitioner (maybe the wrong term) working in a hospital with Covid patients. It’s a noble calling, I admire him for it, and don’t want to add to any stress to his household, but at the same time Barb and I are both very concerned to have Allie spend any more time there than is necessary…and it’s not necessary. I know it would be hard on Allie to really be on her own for an extended period of weeks or months, but unfortunately that’s what this situation calls for. We can’t dictate her movements, and I also don’t want to add to her level of distress. It’s a difficult set of on-going decisions for her. Sadly, she’s not alone in having to wrestle with decisions like that, and worse. Above all, we don’t want her to get sick and that means we may veer toward over-protective. That’s also a sign of the times.
Laurie’s lighthouse painting
Laurie connected next, first sending me a photo of a nice painting of a Spanish lighthouse she’s done for a class. It’s my birthday present and I look forward to seeing it in the flesh, so to speak. Then she gave me a call. She seems to be faring fairly well, though she’s under a much more strict lockdown in Spain than we are. She was surprised we could move around as much as we do. She literally has only left her apartment one time this week to take out the trash. She says that authorities in Spain have made it clear that if she gets sick, because she’s over 65 and has pre-existing conditions, she’s on her own. Don’t bother trying to get into a hospital. That sounds incredibly grim. Laurie is occupying herself by listening to and watching the Met’s multiday broadcast of Wagner’s Ring Cycle. That’ll cheer her up, for sure. Laurie did say that she was interested in offering her own input for this journal, which will be very welcome.
Betsy, Joe and Kristen were next with a call and a Happy Birthday song. Barb was also on most of the call which was unusual and just as much a present for me as anything. The three of them are OK, also moderately cooped up in their apartment. Betsy has started teaching tele-courses though her school system. Joe is working remotely and his construction business is considered essential enough that they’re still building things, which I was a little surprised at. Kristen has lost two of her three jobs, though I’m not sure which one of them she retains. I think she was laid off from Lululemon and probably her nanny work, so maybe she is somehow still employed with the yoga center? Perhaps we should have asked. Barb asked if she had filed for unemployment and the answer was that she still had a job. So there’s that. It was nice to talk to them all and for Barb to fill in the parts about herself rather than having me relay everything for her.
Len checked in with a cute e-card, which was about as much as I deserve and more than I expected. At least she’s still out there in Arizona, hanging in there somehow.
Sue was the last to check in with a call. She’s still with Susanna in Asheville which she says is working out well for her. All her girls’ families were on a joint Zoom videocall last night for the first time and had a good time all talking together. She said that Keri, Susanna and Jill stayed on the call together until past 1am which was good for each of them. Sue relayed on the call that at Susanna’s this week they’ve all had three meals together each day at the same time with folded napkins and no electronics. Keri said that she was so happy that Sue was in Asheville because her own kids were “crazy as shit.” I think Sue is glad she’s there, too.
Sue went on to give me a little update on FutureFlash stuff which is, as always, “really coming together.” She threatened that I would be getting “my questionnaire” soon, which I guess is a gating item, somehow. With the world now forced into teleworking and tele-learning, we’re all moving into her sweet spot. She was well ahead of the curve of physically self-isolating and only seeing other people online. It prompted me to say I didn’t realize that having it all come together like this was what she had in mind, but I don’t think she really heard me. Still, I hope her programs do get out in the world in one form or another. If she manages to enlighten or entertain even a few people, so much the better.
It was nice to have a day mostly focused on family but I still kept a little nose in the news. It’s not good. Numbers: 650,000 global cases and 31,000 deaths; 120,000 US cases with 2,100 deaths (double from two days ago); 1,000 Maryland cases with 10 deaths (double from 5 yesterday). 75,000 cases in Spain with 5,500 deaths. New York has more than 50,000 cases and 880 deaths. We seem to be hitting the exponential growth part of the curve in portions of the US. Governor Cuomo in New York thinks the number of cases there will peak in 14-21 days. Hospitals in NYC are filling but not yet swamped. It feels like Maryland is a week or two behind that, so we’re easily looking at things getting progressively worse for at least a month in our immediate vicinity. April will be very bad and deaths won’t likely crest until May. And that’s just for major metros on the coasts of the US. It will take longer elsewhere around the US and around the world.
March 29
A note from Laurie in Segovia:
Everyone goes out to their terraces or windows at 8 pm here to applaud in appreciation for the health and service providers that are keeping life going as best they can here in Spain. This is the first evening of daylight savings, so there is actually enough light for me to see my neighbors a little bit better–neighbors I don’t know but that I’ve been seeing from afar in the dark every night now for two weeks. As this Corona virus crisis continues, this small nightly interaction with other human beings has taken on a poignant importance for its sense of solidarity in isolation. I find that I am very cheered to add to the applause coming from these formerly anonymous neighbors as we all open our windows to participate in this nightly ritual. It’s comforting to have someone to wave good-night to, and to know that even if our service people can’t hear us cheering for them, we are acknowledging our community and our gratitude. I don’t know anyone that lives near me here in Segovia, so it’s good to be part of this fraternity of strangers.
Now in my seventeenth day of lock down, it becomes a little harder to focus on maintaining the positivity that I managed the first two weeks. The numbers in Spain are getting increasingly difficult to ignore. Today’s count is up to around 6500 deaths, with 79,000 recorded cases (8.3% of cases ending in death) over the country, a disturbing total, with 838 deaths in the last day. Not only that, but it’s closing in on people I know or know of. Today I learned that a woman who danced next to me in country line dance class died this morning from the virus. And Chato, one of the main characters in our friends’ movie, The Silence of Others, also perished. I imagine that the bad news will continue to roll out every day now, even as we should be reaching the peak of new infections soon. It seems that the death toll will rise for a while yet, though.
From my little perch above the city wall in Segovia, it seems peaceful and so very quiet. Hard to imagine what’s happening in the rest of the country. I haven’t been out at all for over two weeks, except twice to take out the garbage. It’s strange but even getting the garbage out to the bins seems like a risky adventure. The other day I got all garbed up with a scarf serving as a face mask (where would I get a proper one if I’m not going out?) and clothes that I immediately put into the wash, just to go up the stairs to the street to the garbage bins. It’s unimaginable that such a small act would feel like I am taking a risk, but I realize I’ve really taken to heart the idea that anything outside of my apartment is a threat to my life and well-being.
So I stay inside. I believe it would be good to maintain a schedule, but I haven’t been very successful at maintaining one. I try to make a to-do list for each day, but I don’t pay it much heed. I’m incredibly grateful for the things that people have put up on the internet to do, especially the Metropolitan Opera for streaming an opera a day. Wagner has taken up many of my hours this week, and after watching the whole Ring Cycle I definitely feel edified in a way that I never would have had patience for at other times. I am painting, which is gratifying. Reading very little. Writing little. Not focusing much on the news, but checking it every so often when I want to know a little bit about what is going on outside my closed doors.
I am about to have a Zoom meeting over a glass of wine with a couple of friends, as the sun sets. Our version of bar hopping now in these odd times. That’s all for tonight, then!
March 30
Today’s note from Laurie:
It may be that today is the first day of a changing pattern here in Spain. The newspaper reports that there were fewer deaths over the past 24 hours (812 vs. 838 the previous day), but with an increase still in new cases, the total number is all the way up to 85,000+. What puzzles me is how they have any idea of what the numbers of cases are, since there isn’t any functional testing here yet. Last week the much-heralded arrival of new test kits turned out to be a bust as they were totally inaccurate. I wonder what the real number might be if testing were available to everyone who has been sick.
The government put new measures into place today, calling it “hybernation” now, but aside from the name I am having a hard time finding what is different from the way we have been locking down all along. I don’t imagine any of it will have an impact on my sitting around in my house, in any case.
Today I tried to watch Tannhauser, the last Wagner opera on offer from the Met, but I got halfway through and decided I’d rather do something else. It wasn’t nearly as compelling as the Ring Cycle. So I did yoga instead, and painted, and wrote a lot of emails. And applauded out my window at 8 pm along with my neighbors.
Meanwhile, it looks like the US is getting more serious about its various lock downs, so it may be that it will start to look more like Spain in its restrictions soon.
March 31
We’re into our third week of social distancing and basically staying at home. Barb and I remain healthy, which is job one. She is working regularly from the dining room, having less connectivity issues and settling in for what will clearly be a month or more. Her work is a tiny bit less frantic but still nonstop. She’s realizing she needs to start to schedule some time each day to get out of her chair and move around. We got her a pillow because the dining room chairs are not the best for sitting in all day.
We are now under a more comprehensive “stay at home” order in Maryland as of 8pm last night. It doesn’t seem to make any real difference in our own activity, but there were some folks who didn’t seem to be getting the message. The latest order makes staying at home mandatory rather than a request and gives police more authority to enforce it. The Virginia governor issued a similar order in force until June 10, about 10 weeks away. He’s at least being honest about the duration. Trump just reluctantly extended the national social distancing guidelines through the end of April. So much for it being all over by Easter. Idiot.
I went to the grocery store today for a few odds and ends, even though we still have quite a lot in the pantry and freezer. The Giant at River Hill was mostly restocked except for the whole toilet paper/tissues aisle, hand soap/cleaners, and pasta. It’s still rather shocking to see whole aisles empty. There was a fair amount of bottled water except for distilled water which is preferred for my CPAP machine. There was no 1% milk but I got Barb 2%. These are indicators of our level of distress on the food front: inconvenience at this point, not crisis.
I’m coming to terms with our current lifestyle. I can certainly get by with things at their current level of inconvenience. It’s pretty close to how I was living anyway, other than I miss going out to dinners and movies. I feel like I probably should be doing more to help other people, but I’m much more likely to hunker down and just protect myself and Barb, and keep track of family and friends as best as I can. It’s not very noble. More precisely, it’s the least I can do, which is usually what I aim for.
Numbers:
Global: 845,000 cases, 41,000 deaths (~3,300/day)
USA: 180,000 cases, 3,580 deaths (~500/day)
Spain: 94,000 cases, 8,200 deaths (~900/day)
Maryland: 1,600 cases, 18 deaths (~3/day)
We’re clearly on the upswing of the curve and the big guesses now are when things will peak. Over the weekend, Dr. Fauci set an expectation of between 100,000-200,000 deaths in the US but didn’t really specify a timeframe. Trump and others are talking about the crisis peaking in a few weeks (in two or three difficult weeks, per Trump’s latest pronouncement), but that doesn’t square at all with Fauci’s estimate. Clearly this is going to go on longer, and paradoxically, the longer it goes the better in terms of flattening the curve and not overwhelming our medical establishment. Plus, it’s spreading asymmetrically in different geographies and populations.
I’m coming to realize that I’m guilty of paying too much attention to the numbers. It’s becoming a sport to track and guess where things are going; betting pools will surely develop on when each city or country will peak. That shouldn’t be what this is about. Each case and death represent human lives and tragedies for the individuals and families involved. But it’s the statistician and manager in me that wants something to measure, and indeed, we need to measure to figure out where we are on these mythical curves we’re trying to flatten. I also recognize that the numbers are to some extent suspect — cases cannot really be counted if we’re not testing comprehensively, some nations are clearly misrepresenting their numbers, and even deaths can be counted differently if they’re in hospitals or “in the field”.
Nor should the coverage of this event be all about Trump, try though he may to make it so. He’s just such a malignant presence and he won’t shut up. I was somewhat pleased in watching the news and late night shows today to find that they seem to be taking this notion to heart. There was slightly less emphasis on Trump and more on the crisis in the hospitals and the community. We’ll see how long that lasts.
We learned yesterday that John Prine is in the hospital in critical condition with Covid-19 symptoms. That’s not good for him and does not bode well for him hosting the All the Best festival in November, for which we have reservations.
Because this post has gotten very long and it’s the end of the month, I’m going to start a new one tomorrow.
Related Post: Coronavirus Journey, Part 2
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